Fw: "Cygnus" [nova V407 Cygni] & Chris Anderson
--- On Wed, 7/13/11, Alex Email wrote:
From: Alex EmailSubject: Fw: cygnus & chris anderson
To: "MAH"Date: Wednesday, July 13, 2011, 11:11 AM----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Alex EmailTo: MAHSent: Wednesday, July 13, 2011 8:59 AM
Pres. Obama Chiron Return 5X contact @05Pisces conjunct Cygnus @05PiscesHi Mark,I think excerpt joan-astrology is not a definitive analysis of Obama's Chiron return.With Chiron on the first the President's wound issue and disconnect goes directly to his self assertion, his basic aggression and focus values. With his natal Mars in Virgo (Mars vibrates to the first house) he kind of has to battle the Virgo-Pisces - victim/martyr syndrome....make himself invisible not to offend (Virgo-Pisces)http://joansastrology.blogspot.com/2011/07/president-obama-at-50.htmlCygnus key words & key concepts developed from sources:
A) From Chris Anderson's review of - Black Swan: impact highly improbablehttp://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515Chris Anderson is author of The LONG TAIL: WHY THE FUTURE IS SELLING LESS OF MORE
- our minds are wired for narrative not statistical uncertainty,
- variable from standard scientific 'truth', - - - result of thought experiment 17th century (all swans are white standard scientific 'truth' until black swan discovered in Australia)
- impossible to calculate,
- rare, unpredictable important events,
- powerlaw swing as opposed to bell cure predictability,
B) An unusually bright and unexpected outburst from what was thought to be a rather mundane and slightly variable star in the constellation Cygnus was detected by two Japanese astronomers, Koichi Nishiyama (Fukuoka, Japan) and Fujio Kabashima (Saga, Japan), in images taken on March 10, 2010 (10:48 UT). An independent discovery of this outburst was also made by Tadashi Kojima. This indicates a slow nova outburst that may have been in progress since 1936.http://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Impact-Highly-Improbable/dp/1400063515Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris AndersonChange does not comes from Washington DC, change comes from the bottom up. We the people have to take responsibility for creating the long-awaited progressive America.