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RE: check it out! LP sailable right now 6:15pm!!

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  • Tom von Alten
    Steve L. wrote: Tom you called it right this morning , Would you give us a tutorial on your forecasting model . “Be prepared to be wrong.” I looked at the
    Message 1 of 6 , Jul 30, 2014
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      Steve L. wrote:

      Tom you called it right this morning , Would you give us a tutorial on your forecasting model .

       

      “Be prepared to be wrong.” I looked at the numbers and graph just before 6am (and noted “no smell of morning wind” out my east window), figured to stay home. Then made the mistake of checking again, just after 6, and seeing it spike up to “24” and headed out the door.

      cid:image004.jpg@...390C20

      It was a lovely sunrise, anyway, and we had a quartet of old-timers to witness.

      What makes it go is cold, high pressure mountain air pushing down the canyon to the Snake River Plain.  Stable, high pressure over the region, without NW’ly is the ideal state. Any deviation from the ideal detracts from the strength and duration. Nights that don’t cool off suck for sleeping, and sailing. The magic that creates thunderstorms is rarely good for MW. “Weather” is bad. See-sawing between (and below) 15 and (not quite) 20 is bad.

      Clouds over the lake and not elsewhere, or vice versa, who knows? There have been good (and bad) days either way. General cloud cover would make it unlikely, just because it means there’s weather brewing, and weather brewing is bad. Coffee brewing is good.

      _____________

      Tom von Alten

      tva@...

    • Jason Brickner
      The cold clear mountain air cannot be overstated. It’s probably 90-95% of what drives the morning wind. Any moderate cloud cover over the mountains at
      Message 2 of 6 , Jul 30, 2014
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        The cold clear mountain air cannot be overstated.  It’s probably 90-95% of what drives the morning wind.  Any moderate cloud cover over the mountains at night keeps the heat in and the cold air at bay.  This time of the summer, the monsoonal moisture really screws things up by sending moisture up our way..  I’m convinced the height of the season is late summer/early fall.  Once the monsoonal moisture stops working its way so far north , we usually have more kiteable days.  Think of all those great September mornings we have most years.

         

        Even though the numbers looked fair this morning, I knew the extensive cloud shield would keep LP constipated.  Time for an Ex-Lax!

         

        -JBrick

         

        From: boisesailors@... [mailto:boisesailors@...] On Behalf Of Tom von Alten
        Sent: Wednesday, July 30, 2014 10:00 AM
        To: idahokiteboarding@yahoogroups.com; 'Boise Sailors Association'; snowkiteidaho@yahoogroups.com
        Subject: [BSA] RE: check it out! LP sailable right now 6:15pm!!

         

        Steve L. wrote:

        Tom you called it right this morning , Would you give us a tutorial on your forecasting model .

         

        “Be prepared to be wrong.” I looked at the numbers and graph just before 6am (and noted “no smell of morning wind” out my east window), figured to stay home. Then made the mistake of checking again, just after 6, and seeing it spike up to “24” and headed out the door.

        cid:image004.jpg@...390C20

        It was a lovely sunrise, anyway, and we had a quartet of old-timers to witness.

        What makes it go is cold, high pressure mountain air pushing down the canyon to the Snake River Plain.  Stable, high pressure over the region, without NW’ly is the ideal state. Any deviation from the ideal detracts from the strength and duration. Nights that don’t cool off suck for sleeping, and sailing. The magic that creates thunderstorms is rarely good for MW. “Weather” is bad. See-sawing between (and below) 15 and (not quite) 20 is bad.

        Clouds over the lake and not elsewhere, or vice versa, who knows? There have been good (and bad) days either way. General cloud cover would make it unlikely, just because it means there’s weather brewing, and weather brewing is bad. Coffee brewing is good.

        _____________

        Tom von Alten

        tva@...

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      • Chris Lee
        I wasn t going to go but the numbers looked between 6:00 & 6:30 so I got there by 7:00 only to see everyone watching on shore. I hanged around for a bit and
        Message 3 of 6 , Jul 30, 2014
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          I wasn't going to go but the numbers looked between 6:00 & 6:30 so I got there by 7:00 only to see everyone watching on shore.  I hanged around for a bit and decided to go out and played around while Jon and Bill watched.  On the water from about 7:45 to 8:45 (last 5-10 min was swimming in).
          I managed to plane about 3 times and I believed that correlate to the 3 peaks on the graph.


          On Wed, Jul 30, 2014 at 9:59 AM, Tom von Alten <tva@...> wrote:

          Steve L. wrote:

          Tom you called it right this morning , Would you give us a tutorial on your forecasting model .

           

          “Be prepared to be wrong.” I looked at the numbers and graph just before 6am (and noted “no smell of morning wind” out my east window), figured to stay home. Then made the mistake of checking again, just after 6, and seeing it spike up to “24” and headed out the door.

          cid:image004.jpg@...390C20

          It was a lovely sunrise, anyway, and we had a quartet of old-timers to witness.

          What makes it go is cold, high pressure mountain air pushing down the canyon to the Snake River Plain.  Stable, high pressure over the region, without NW’ly is the ideal state. Any deviation from the ideal detracts from the strength and duration. Nights that don’t cool off suck for sleeping, and sailing. The magic that creates thunderstorms is rarely good for MW. “Weather” is bad. See-sawing between (and below) 15 and (not quite) 20 is bad.

          Clouds over the lake and not elsewhere, or vice versa, who knows? There have been good (and bad) days either way. General cloud cover would make it unlikely, just because it means there’s weather brewing, and weather brewing is bad. Coffee brewing is good.

          _____________

          Tom von Alten

          tva@...

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          "Boise Sailors Association" group.
          To post: BoiseSailors@...
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          Sailing stuff: http://fortboise.org/windsurfing/
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          --
          Best regards,
          Chris Lee.
        • stefanoortelli
          I m convinced it s always worth being there. There s an unpredictable factor in wind that could make good wind at any time, regardless. Only the ones that are
          Message 4 of 6 , Jul 30, 2014
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            I'm convinced it's always worth being there. There's an unpredictable factor in wind that could make good wind at any time, regardless. Only the ones that are there will enjoy it
          • Will Hise
            Check out horseshoe bend right now. Gusts to 49. About the same at my house in the north end hills. Came out of nowhere and looks to be dropping fast. Good
            Message 5 of 6 , Jul 30, 2014
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              Check out horseshoe bend right now. Gusts to 49. About the same at my house in the north end hills. Came out of nowhere and looks to be dropping fast. 

              Good stuff! 

              Not good for kites. 



              On Wednesday, July 30, 2014, sortelli@... [snowkiteidaho] <snowkiteidaho@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


              I'm convinced it's always worth being there. There's an unpredictable factor in wind that could make good wind at any time, regardless. Only the ones that are there will enjoy it


            • Jon Bolt
              ...& Barclay Bay is goin OFF 7m !!!! On Wed, Jul 30, 2014 at 7:08 PM, Will Hise will.hise@gmail.com
              Message 6 of 6 , Jul 30, 2014
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                ...& Barclay Bay is goin' OFF 7m !!!!


                On Wed, Jul 30, 2014 at 7:08 PM, Will Hise will.hise@... [snowkiteidaho] <snowkiteidaho@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
                 

                Check out horseshoe bend right now. Gusts to 49. About the same at my house in the north end hills. Came out of nowhere and looks to be dropping fast. 


                Good stuff! 

                Not good for kites. 



                On Wednesday, July 30, 2014, sortelli@... [snowkiteidaho] <snowkiteidaho@yahoogroups.com> wrote:


                I'm convinced it's always worth being there. There's an unpredictable factor in wind that could make good wind at any time, regardless. Only the ones that are there will enjoy it



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