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SMT Weekly Email Newsletter 05/2003

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  • Bernhard Seiberl
    +++ SMT Weekly Email Newsletter 05/2003 (ASCII version) +++ A newsletter for sound and objective market timing signals! A free service of SNIPER Market Timing
    Message 1 of 1 , Jan 26, 2003
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      +++ SMT Weekly Email Newsletter 05/2003 (ASCII version) +++
      A newsletter for sound and objective market timing signals!

      A free service of SNIPER Market Timing (SMT)
      http://www.sniper.at/

      Volume: 3
      Issue: 65
      Date: 26.01.2003
      Editor: Bernhard Seiberl


      Dear newsletter reader,

      Welcome to our latest edition of the SNIPER Email Newsletter
      and thank you very much for your continued use of our
      services!


      ++ TABLE OF CONTENTS: ++
      1. NEW MARKET TIMING SIGNALS
      2. CURRENT MARKET TIMING SIGNALS
      3. OUTLOOK
      4. QUOTE OF THE WEEK
      5. SUBSCRIPTION MANAGEMENT


      1. NEW MARKET TIMING SIGNALS
      ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
      There was *no* new market timing signal last week!


      2. CURRENT MARKET TIMING SIGNALS
      ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

      2.1. Bond market timing signals:

      US bonds <100% Cash> since 19.01.2003
      German bonds <100% Bonds> since 15.12.2002

      2.2. Stock market timing signals:

      US stocks <100% Cash> since 02.04.2001
      Austrian stocks <100% Cash> since 14.07.2002
      Canadian stocks <100% Cash> since 19.04.2001
      German stocks <100% Cash> since 02.04.2001
      Italian stocks <100% Cash> since 24.06.2001
      Japanese stocks <100% Cash> since 23.06.2002
      Dutch stocks <100% Cash> since 01.04.2002
      Spanish stocks <100% Cash> since 14.04.2002
      Swiss stocks <100% Cash> since 16.10.2001
      British stocks <100% Cash> since 01.04.2002


      3. OUTLOOK
      ++++++++++
      Our stock trading systems are very bearish.
      All stock trading systems are in a 100% cash
      position.

      Our proprietary Stock Market Risk Index was
      at - 90% - last week (= very bearish).
      More information on this indicator could be found at:
      - http://www.sniper.at/stock-market-risk-index.htm
      Historical Stock Market Risk Data could be found at:
      - http://www.sniper.at/historical-stock-market-risk.htm

      Our bond trading systems are neutral to bullish.
      The US bond market timing model issued a 100% cash
      signal last week. The German bond market trading
      system is still in a 100% bonds position.

      Our proprietary Bond Market Risk Index was
      at - 46% - last week (= neutral).
      More information on this indicator could be found at:
      - http://www.sniper.at/bond-market-risk-index.htm
      Historical Bond Market Risk Data could be found at:
      - http://www.sniper.at/historical-bond-market-risk.htm

      3.1. BOND MARKET TIMING MODELS:
      The German bond market trading system is still
      in a 100% bonds position.
      The US bond market trading system is still in a 100%
      cash position.
      The internals of our bond market models on an
      aggregated basis are currently neutral.

      Our neutral to bullish bond trading systems are
      indicating that we should see only slightly
      advancing bond prices next week.

      3.3. STOCK MARKET TIMING MODELS:
      All stock market timing systems are in a
      100% cash position. Our stock market timing
      sub-models are very cautious.
      The internals of our stock market models on
      an aggregated basis are very bearish.

      Our very bearish stock trading systems are
      indicating that we should see declining
      stock prices next week.


      ... for bond investments our bond models are neutral
      to bullish!
      ... for stock investments our stock models are neutral!

      - Look for the next update on 02.02.2003!

      - Performance charts for all market timing models could be
      found at: http://www.sniper.at/market-timing.htm


      4. QUOTE OF THE WEEK
      ++++++++++++++++++++

      "I think the fear you mentioned is mainly due to fear of
      "uncertainty" (will this trade win or lose?).
      Uncertainty leads to hesitation and to fear and then to
      immobilization. Thus we spend all of our time trying
      to create certainty via market analysis, indicators,
      waiting for the trade that "feels" right etc.
      In my experience none of this stuff really works better
      than a coin flip over the long run.

      I used to have tremendous problem pulling the trigger due
      to fear of uncertainty (I still do at times after a string
      of losing trades). Ever since I switched to trading purely
      on price with a very simple switch/entry parameter,
      I just "force" myself to enter into a trade whenever my
      entry conditions are met (I ALWAYS have my Initial Stop
      worked out beforehand). After doing this over many
      trades I realize that entry and the uncertainty "are
      really no big deal".

      You have a 50/50 chance of being right or wrong.
      Think about it - you are either long or short, right or
      wrong. It's really that simple and there is no need to
      spend so much effort on entry and trying to create
      certainty. If wrong you get out and wait for another
      trade.
      Sooner or later you will have a winning trade.

      And if you manage your winning trades correctly -
      letting profits run - you will more than make back your
      losses and more over the long run. At some point
      (I don't even know when myself) I made that mental leap
      after many trades. Now trading is far far more
      liberating and "free" because of the change in the
      way I think. I put all my emphasis on exits and
      trade management now - what type of exits to use on
      trend days, exits for sideways market etc. I have
      found myself automatically reversing into a winning
      trade without thinking after a losing trade. In the
      past I never could do that.

      The way to conquer fear is to have a very well defined
      and specific methodology, and just take the trades
      whenever your entry criteria is met, without thinking
      will I win or lose. If your method/system has
      positive expectancy and you keep your bets
      appropriately sized, then you KNOW you will come out
      ahead over many trades. And by JUST DOING IT,
      you are imparting this belief into your subconscious
      mind. Every trade you make, you are tearing down your
      fear of uncertainty and resistance to pulling the
      trigger. The only way to conquer fear and hesitation
      is TO JUST DO IT!

      In his book Trading In The Zone, Market Douglas taught
      traders to think like a casino "operator" instead of
      the gamblers who go to the casinos.
      How does a casino operator think:

      1. They have well defined rules for each of their
      gambling games.
      2. They know beforehand whether each of their games
      has positive expectancy over the long run.
      3. They take "EVERY SINGLE BET" wager by the gamblers
      WITHOUT knowing whether each individual bet is a
      winner or loser. Thus they may lose on individual
      bets but over many bets the casino operator makes
      money (because they have positive expectancy).

      In the mean time the gambler bets heavily with no
      clear strategy and rules and just "hope" that
      he/she will hit pay dirt."
      - P. Chu, 19.01.2003 -

      More useful tips for traders could be found at:
      http://www.sniper.at/trading-tips.htm


      5. SUBSCRIPTION MANAGEMENT
      ++++++++++++++++++++++++++
      You are receiving this email because you have signed up for
      this free email newsletter at: http://www.sniper.at/

      If you feel you have received this message in error or wish
      not to receive any future mailings, you may unsubscribe from
      future emails by sending an email to
      mailto:snipermt-unsubscribe@yahoogroups.com

      You can maximise the value you could get from our newsletter
      and from our market timing signals by reading our:
      -> FAQ-page: http://www.sniper.at/faq.htm
      -> Current Signal-page: http://www.sniper.at/current.htm
      -> Disclaimer: http://www.sniper.at/disclaimer.htm
      carefully!

      If at any time you have questions about any of our content here
      or about your subscription, just send us an email to
      mailto:newsletter@...


      Have a profitable week!
      --
      Bernhard Seiberl
      * SNIPER Market Timing *
      Our "designated target" ... consistent profits!
      mailto:bernhard.seiberl@...
      http://www.sniper.at/

      © Copyright 2001-2003 SNIPER Market Timing. All rights reserved.

      IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER:
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      sources deemed reliable and it is accurate to the best of
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