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Drakes equation could predict that there is no one else on the line.

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  • Sidney Hagen
    For fun try this scenario with the drake equation interactive at: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/origins/drake.html The interactive has Drakes numbers as a
    Message 1 of 1 , Oct 2, 2004
      For fun try this scenario with the drake equation interactive at:
       
       
      The interactive has Drakes numbers as a default.  Remember the following things about Drakes numbers.
       
      1.  Drake spent much of his life working on radio communications trying to establish a contact.
       
      2.  Drake had to get his funding by making the case that SETI was a worthwhile effort.
       
      This scenario represents someone not discounting the fact that intelligent life exists and is trying to communicate by radio waves, but using slightly more pessimistic numbers than Drake.
       
      Try
       
      R=3
      fp=20%
      ne=1
      f1=10%
      fi=10%
      fc10%
      L=2k
       
      The result kind of makes you feel like we are talking to ourself.
       
      Even using Drake's numbers which I believe are highly optimistic add two more variables for an alien landing on the earth.
       
      1 in 100 can develop interstellar space travel
       
      1 in 100 decided to come this way.
       
      The probability is on chance in the Milky Way that we have been visited.
       
      Take care,
       
      Sid
       
       
       
       
       
       
       
       

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