- Hi,I'm not a statistician, but maybe this will help.Run Prob1 from a command shell. Source code is included.RichardDate: Sat, 09 Feb 2002 06:54:21 -0000
From: "pentatonika2000" <pentatonika@...>
Subject: probability math
I recently read about an astrologer who was asked to write horoscopes
for 12 unidentified people, meet those 12 people, and then guess
which was which.
The astrologer didn't make a single correct guess.
That surprised me, because I thought that the chances were greater
than 50% in favor of getting at least one correct guess.
But I think I was wrong. I began calculating the formula for the
chances of getting at least one correct match given the number of
people being matched. Here's what I came up with:
Given 1 person, the chances are 1 out of 1.
Given 2 persons, the chances are 1 out of 2.
Given 3 persons, the chances are 4 out of 6.
Given 4 persons, the chances are 6 out of 16.
And that's as far as I figured.
I can't discern a pattern from this data, and it would be quite
laborious to figure out the chances given 5 persons.
Does anything already know what the formula is?
Or does anything see a formula from this data?
If so, please write back.