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Re: calculate velocity

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  • czahn777
    Hi, first of all thank you for your responses! The reason why i calculate the velocity on a day-by-day basis is, that i want to calculate a forecast for a
    Message 1 of 10 , Feb 12, 2013
      Hi,
      first of all thank you for your responses!

      The reason why i calculate the velocity on a day-by-day basis is,
      that i want to calculate a forecast for a sprint. Just as an additional information to the normal burndown chart!
      I just want to know, if we will finish all stories in the calculated sprint time.

      So i took the average burndown hours(!) per day and use it as a forecast value. This value now shows to me, when we go on with this 'velocity', we will finish all the stories in this sprint until day X, Y or Z.
      And no, i don't want to vary the length, i just want to know if we are in time.

      For your background. We have just started with this project and there is no last sprint yet. And there are no references for this sprint and its velocity.

      regards,
      Christof


      --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Markus Gaertner wrote:
      >
      > Hi Christof,
      >
      > Scrum doesn't say anything about velocity or burn-ups. Usually during
      > courses I ask participants for good reasons to come up with stuff like
      > these. The only answer yet has boiled down to rendezvous planning with some
      > other group or team.
      >
      > Now, I am curious, what daily rendezvous do you face that makes you
      > evaluate the velocity on a day-by-day basis?
      >
      > Best
      > Markus
      >
      > On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 5:38 PM, Christof Zahn wrote:
      >
      > >
      > >
      > > Hi group,
      > >
      > > how do you calculate the burndown rate / velocity for a sprint?
      > > Here's my example / My understanding:
      > >
      > > Start: 42 hours left
      > > End of Day 1: 36 hours left
      > > End of Day 2; 28 hours left
      > > End of Day 3: 18 hours left
      > >
      > > Velocity for
      > > Day 1 is 6 hours (42 minus 36)
      > > Day 2 is 8 hours
      > > Day 3 is 10 hours
      > > Avg. : 8 hours
      > >
      > > So the velocity is nothing more than the "burned down" points or hours per
      > > day.
      > > Am I correct?
      > >
      > > And with that information, how will you do the forecast?
      > > Take the average velocity or the one from the actual day?
      > > Maybe it even depends on the sprint length?! Because the velocity at the
      > > beginning of the sprint is much slower.
      > > So an average value will be not so representative for a good forecast.
      > >
      > >
      > > regards,
      > > christof
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      > --
      > Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
      > Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance Test-Driven
      > Development
      > http://www.shino.de/blog
      > http://www.mgaertne.de
      > http://www.it-agile.de
      > Twitter: @mgaertne
      >
    • Kevin Callahan
      First off, I can tell from your emails that you re extremely excited to be practicing scrum, and that s a very good thing! However, I would add a note of
      Message 2 of 10 , Feb 13, 2013
        First off, I can tell from your emails that you're extremely excited to be practicing scrum, and that's a very good thing!

        However, I would add a note of caution here: part of what you'll almost certainly learn is that there are simply things that cannot be known, regardless of what numbers, metrics, or forecasts are made. As such, it becomes a waste of time to pursue them.

        To answer your question of whether or not you'll make the sprint forecast? Well, the sprint burndown will give a pretty good indicator, though it's going to take time. It's not usual for a new team to completely misforecast a sprint. Even experienced teams find themselves in the same place from time to time.

        Rather than putting am emphasis and value on whether or not the forecast was accurate, I would suggest focusing on the quality of the work being done and the value it provides the business. Is this a potentially shippable product increment that drives business value? If not, that's a far more interesting question, IMO, than "how accurate are our sprint forecasts?"

        Hope that helps!

        -kevin

        On Feb 12, 2013, at 11:42 AM, czahn777 wrote:

         

        Hi,
        first of all thank you for your responses!

        The reason why i calculate the velocity on a day-by-day basis is,
        that i want to calculate a forecast for a sprint. Just as an additional information to the normal burndown chart!
        I just want to know, if we will finish all stories in the calculated sprint time.

        So i took the average burndown hours(!) per day and use it as a forecast value. This value now shows to me, when we go on with this 'velocity', we will finish all the stories in this sprint until day X, Y or Z.
        And no, i don't want to vary the length, i just want to know if we are in time.

        For your background. We have just started with this project and there is no last sprint yet. And there are no references for this sprint and its velocity.

        regards,
        Christof

        --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Markus Gaertner wrote:
        >
        > Hi Christof,
        >
        > Scrum doesn't say anything about velocity or burn-ups. Usually during
        > courses I ask participants for good reasons to come up with stuff like
        > these. The only answer yet has boiled down to rendezvous planning with some
        > other group or team.
        >
        > Now, I am curious, what daily rendezvous do you face that makes you
        > evaluate the velocity on a day-by-day basis?
        >
        > Best
        > Markus
        >
        > On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 5:38 PM, Christof Zahn wrote:
        >
        > >
        > >
        > > Hi group,
        > >
        > > how do you calculate the burndown rate / velocity for a sprint?
        > > Here's my example / My understanding:
        > >
        > > Start: 42 hours left
        > > End of Day 1: 36 hours left
        > > End of Day 2; 28 hours left
        > > End of Day 3: 18 hours left
        > >
        > > Velocity for
        > > Day 1 is 6 hours (42 minus 36)
        > > Day 2 is 8 hours
        > > Day 3 is 10 hours
        > > Avg. : 8 hours
        > >
        > > So the velocity is nothing more than the "burned down" points or hours per
        > > day.
        > > Am I correct?
        > >
        > > And with that information, how will you do the forecast?
        > > Take the average velocity or the one from the actual day?
        > > Maybe it even depends on the sprint length?! Because the velocity at the
        > > beginning of the sprint is much slower.
        > > So an average value will be not so representative for a good forecast.
        > >
        > >
        > > regards,
        > > christof
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        >
        >
        >
        >
        > --
        > Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
        > Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance Test-Driven
        > Development
        > http://www.shino.de/blog
        > http://www.mgaertne.de
        > http://www.it-agile.de
        > Twitter: @mgaertne
        >


        Kevin Callahan
        Scrum Master & Agile Coach
        LiveWorld Inc.

        Mobile+1 (207) 691-2997
        Emailkcallahan@...
        Skypekevmocal
        Webwww.liveworld.com

        Follow UsFacebook Twitter LinkedIn



      • Ron Jeffries
        Christof, ... What do you do when it says all s good? What do you do when it says you re late? What do you do when it says all s good and at the end of the
        Message 3 of 10 , Feb 13, 2013
          Christof,

          On Feb 12, 2013, at 11:42 AM, "czahn777" <czahn@...> wrote:

          So i took the average burndown hours(!) per day and use it as a forecast value. This value now shows to me, when we go on with this 'velocity', we will finish all the stories in this sprint until day X, Y or Z. 
          And no, i don't want to vary the length, i just want to know if we are in time.

          What do you do when it says all's good? What do you do when it says you're late?

          What do you do when it says all's good and at the end of the Sprint not everything is done?

          Ron Jeffries
          If another does not intend offense, it is wrong for me to seek it;
          if another does indeed intend offense, it is foolish for me to permit it.
            -- Kelly Easterley

        • Markus Gaertner
          I probably only speak from my own experiences there, but I have seen most teams being perfectly comfortable with seeing the progress they make on their
          Message 4 of 10 , Feb 13, 2013
            I probably only speak from my own experiences there, but I have seen
            most teams being perfectly comfortable with seeing the progress they
            make on their taskboard. When there are four days in the sprint left,
            and just one out of five stories is finished, they exactly know they
            have bad news, and need to speak to the product owner about it. On the
            other hand, if four days before sprint review four out of five stories
            are done, and the PO had a look on them, and the fifth story is
            half-way through, they know, they are likely to finish that last story
            as well.

            Usually the visual impression of the taskboard gives clues to your
            progress. And you update that one anyways. The teams I worked with
            were pretty comfortable with that.

            Best
            Markus

            On Tue, Feb 12, 2013 at 5:42 PM, czahn777 <czahn@...> wrote:
            > Hi,
            > first of all thank you for your responses!
            >
            > The reason why i calculate the velocity on a day-by-day basis is,
            > that i want to calculate a forecast for a sprint. Just as an additional information to the normal burndown chart!
            > I just want to know, if we will finish all stories in the calculated sprint time.
            >
            > So i took the average burndown hours(!) per day and use it as a forecast value. This value now shows to me, when we go on with this 'velocity', we will finish all the stories in this sprint until day X, Y or Z.
            > And no, i don't want to vary the length, i just want to know if we are in time.
            >
            > For your background. We have just started with this project and there is no last sprint yet. And there are no references for this sprint and its velocity.
            >
            > regards,
            > Christof
            >
            >
            > --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Markus Gaertner wrote:
            >>
            >> Hi Christof,
            >>
            >> Scrum doesn't say anything about velocity or burn-ups. Usually during
            >> courses I ask participants for good reasons to come up with stuff like
            >> these. The only answer yet has boiled down to rendezvous planning with some
            >> other group or team.
            >>
            >> Now, I am curious, what daily rendezvous do you face that makes you
            >> evaluate the velocity on a day-by-day basis?
            >>
            >> Best
            >> Markus
            >>
            >> On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 5:38 PM, Christof Zahn wrote:
            >>
            >> >
            >> >
            >> > Hi group,
            >> >
            >> > how do you calculate the burndown rate / velocity for a sprint?
            >> > Here's my example / My understanding:
            >> >
            >> > Start: 42 hours left
            >> > End of Day 1: 36 hours left
            >> > End of Day 2; 28 hours left
            >> > End of Day 3: 18 hours left
            >> >
            >> > Velocity for
            >> > Day 1 is 6 hours (42 minus 36)
            >> > Day 2 is 8 hours
            >> > Day 3 is 10 hours
            >> > Avg. : 8 hours
            >> >
            >> > So the velocity is nothing more than the "burned down" points or hours per
            >> > day.
            >> > Am I correct?
            >> >
            >> > And with that information, how will you do the forecast?
            >> > Take the average velocity or the one from the actual day?
            >> > Maybe it even depends on the sprint length?! Because the velocity at the
            >> > beginning of the sprint is much slower.
            >> > So an average value will be not so representative for a good forecast.
            >> >
            >> >
            >> > regards,
            >> > christof
            >> >
            >> >
            >> >
            >> >
            >> >
            >> >
            >> >
            >> >
            >>
            >>
            >>
            >>
            >> --
            >> Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
            >> Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance Test-Driven
            >> Development
            >> http://www.shino.de/blog
            >> http://www.mgaertne.de
            >> http://www.it-agile.de
            >> Twitter: @mgaertne
            >>
            >
            >
            >
            > ------------------------------------
            >
            > To Post a message, send it to: scrumdevelopment@...
            > To Unsubscribe, send a blank message to: scrumdevelopment-unsubscribe@...! Groups Links
            >
            >
            >



            --
            Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
            Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance
            Test-Driven Development
            http://www.shino.de/blog
            http://www.mgaertne.de
            http://www.it-agile.de
            Twitter: @mgaertne
          • extremeprogrammer
            I advise you not do do this for two reasons: 1. Many teams have a burndown signature that is visible after several sprints. This arises from the teams
            Message 5 of 10 , Feb 14, 2013
              I advise you not do do this for two reasons:

              1. Many teams have a "burndown signature" that is visible after several sprints. This arises from the teams preferences, maybe for doing a few small stories first, then tackling hard ones, leaving some smaller ones at the end, or maybe they tackle the hard ones first, etc. The belief that the burndown should follow some sort of "ideal" line is clinging to the old world.

              2. http://www.casualmiracles.com/2011/05/16/burndown-prediction-confidence-and-risk/

              Regards,

              Lance

              --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, "czahn777" wrote:
              >
              > Hi,
              > first of all thank you for your responses!
              >
              > The reason why i calculate the velocity on a day-by-day basis is,
              > that i want to calculate a forecast for a sprint. Just as an additional information to the normal burndown chart!
              > I just want to know, if we will finish all stories in the calculated sprint time.
              >
              > So i took the average burndown hours(!) per day and use it as a forecast value. This value now shows to me, when we go on with this 'velocity', we will finish all the stories in this sprint until day X, Y or Z.
              > And no, i don't want to vary the length, i just want to know if we are in time.
              >
              > For your background. We have just started with this project and there is no last sprint yet. And there are no references for this sprint and its velocity.
              >
              > regards,
              > Christof
              >
              >
              > --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Markus Gaertner wrote:
              > >
              > > Hi Christof,
              > >
              > > Scrum doesn't say anything about velocity or burn-ups. Usually during
              > > courses I ask participants for good reasons to come up with stuff like
              > > these. The only answer yet has boiled down to rendezvous planning with some
              > > other group or team.
              > >
              > > Now, I am curious, what daily rendezvous do you face that makes you
              > > evaluate the velocity on a day-by-day basis?
              > >
              > > Best
              > > Markus
              > >
              > > On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 5:38 PM, Christof Zahn wrote:
              > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > > Hi group,
              > > >
              > > > how do you calculate the burndown rate / velocity for a sprint?
              > > > Here's my example / My understanding:
              > > >
              > > > Start: 42 hours left
              > > > End of Day 1: 36 hours left
              > > > End of Day 2; 28 hours left
              > > > End of Day 3: 18 hours left
              > > >
              > > > Velocity for
              > > > Day 1 is 6 hours (42 minus 36)
              > > > Day 2 is 8 hours
              > > > Day 3 is 10 hours
              > > > Avg. : 8 hours
              > > >
              > > > So the velocity is nothing more than the "burned down" points or hours per
              > > > day.
              > > > Am I correct?
              > > >
              > > > And with that information, how will you do the forecast?
              > > > Take the average velocity or the one from the actual day?
              > > > Maybe it even depends on the sprint length?! Because the velocity at the
              > > > beginning of the sprint is much slower.
              > > > So an average value will be not so representative for a good forecast.
              > > >
              > > >
              > > > regards,
              > > > christof
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > > --
              > > Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
              > > Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance Test-Driven
              > > Development
              > > http://www.shino.de/blog
              > > http://www.mgaertne.de
              > > http://www.it-agile.de
              > > Twitter: @mgaertne
              > >
              >
            • wwake2
              ... +1 for taskboards over sprint burndowns When I m halfway through a sprint, I d like to see say 40%+ of stories in the done column. That gives me a better
              Message 6 of 10 , Feb 14, 2013
                --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Markus Gaertner wrote:
                >
                > I probably only speak from my own experiences there, but I have seen
                > most teams being perfectly comfortable with seeing the progress they
                > make on their taskboard.

                +1 for taskboards over sprint burndowns

                When I'm halfway through a sprint, I'd like to see say 40%+ of stories in the "done" column. That gives me a better indication of progress than seeing that we've burned down half the work we expect to do.

                I've found the taskboard leads the team to focus more on stories ("what *we're* trying to do") and less on tasks ("what *I'm* trying to do").

                --
                Bill Wake @wwake http://xp123.com
                Industrial Logic, Inc. - Coaching, Training, Assessment, eLearning - http://industriallogic.com
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