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Re: [scrumdevelopment] calculate velocity

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  • Markus Gaertner
    Hi Christof, Scrum doesn t say anything about velocity or burn-ups. Usually during courses I ask participants for good reasons to come up with stuff like
    Message 1 of 10 , Feb 11, 2013
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      Hi Christof,

      Scrum doesn't say anything about velocity or burn-ups. Usually during courses I ask participants for good reasons to come up with stuff like these. The only answer yet has boiled down to rendezvous planning with some other group or team.

      Now, I am curious, what daily rendezvous do you face that makes you evaluate the velocity on a day-by-day basis? 

      Best
      Markus

      On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 5:38 PM, Christof Zahn <czahn@...> wrote:


      Hi group,

      how do you calculate the burndown rate / velocity for a sprint? 
      Here's my example / My understanding:

      Start: 42 hours left
      End of Day 1: 36 hours left
      End of Day 2; 28 hours left
      End of Day 3: 18 hours left

      Velocity for 
      Day 1 is 6 hours (42 minus 36)
      Day 2 is 8 hours
      Day 3 is 10 hours
      Avg. : 8 hours

      So the velocity is nothing more than the "burned down" points or hours per day.
      Am I correct?

      And with that information, how will you do the forecast?
      Take the average velocity or the one from the actual day?
      Maybe it even depends on the sprint length?! Because the velocity at the beginning of the sprint is much slower.
      So an average value will be not so representative for a good forecast.


      regards,
      christof










      --
      Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
      Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance Test-Driven Development
      http://www.shino.de/blog
      http://www.mgaertne.de
      http://www.it-agile.de
      Twitter: @mgaertne
    • czahn777
      Hi, first of all thank you for your responses! The reason why i calculate the velocity on a day-by-day basis is, that i want to calculate a forecast for a
      Message 2 of 10 , Feb 12, 2013
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        Hi,
        first of all thank you for your responses!

        The reason why i calculate the velocity on a day-by-day basis is,
        that i want to calculate a forecast for a sprint. Just as an additional information to the normal burndown chart!
        I just want to know, if we will finish all stories in the calculated sprint time.

        So i took the average burndown hours(!) per day and use it as a forecast value. This value now shows to me, when we go on with this 'velocity', we will finish all the stories in this sprint until day X, Y or Z.
        And no, i don't want to vary the length, i just want to know if we are in time.

        For your background. We have just started with this project and there is no last sprint yet. And there are no references for this sprint and its velocity.

        regards,
        Christof


        --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Markus Gaertner wrote:
        >
        > Hi Christof,
        >
        > Scrum doesn't say anything about velocity or burn-ups. Usually during
        > courses I ask participants for good reasons to come up with stuff like
        > these. The only answer yet has boiled down to rendezvous planning with some
        > other group or team.
        >
        > Now, I am curious, what daily rendezvous do you face that makes you
        > evaluate the velocity on a day-by-day basis?
        >
        > Best
        > Markus
        >
        > On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 5:38 PM, Christof Zahn wrote:
        >
        > >
        > >
        > > Hi group,
        > >
        > > how do you calculate the burndown rate / velocity for a sprint?
        > > Here's my example / My understanding:
        > >
        > > Start: 42 hours left
        > > End of Day 1: 36 hours left
        > > End of Day 2; 28 hours left
        > > End of Day 3: 18 hours left
        > >
        > > Velocity for
        > > Day 1 is 6 hours (42 minus 36)
        > > Day 2 is 8 hours
        > > Day 3 is 10 hours
        > > Avg. : 8 hours
        > >
        > > So the velocity is nothing more than the "burned down" points or hours per
        > > day.
        > > Am I correct?
        > >
        > > And with that information, how will you do the forecast?
        > > Take the average velocity or the one from the actual day?
        > > Maybe it even depends on the sprint length?! Because the velocity at the
        > > beginning of the sprint is much slower.
        > > So an average value will be not so representative for a good forecast.
        > >
        > >
        > > regards,
        > > christof
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        >
        >
        >
        >
        > --
        > Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
        > Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance Test-Driven
        > Development
        > http://www.shino.de/blog
        > http://www.mgaertne.de
        > http://www.it-agile.de
        > Twitter: @mgaertne
        >
      • Kevin Callahan
        First off, I can tell from your emails that you re extremely excited to be practicing scrum, and that s a very good thing! However, I would add a note of
        Message 3 of 10 , Feb 13, 2013
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          First off, I can tell from your emails that you're extremely excited to be practicing scrum, and that's a very good thing!

          However, I would add a note of caution here: part of what you'll almost certainly learn is that there are simply things that cannot be known, regardless of what numbers, metrics, or forecasts are made. As such, it becomes a waste of time to pursue them.

          To answer your question of whether or not you'll make the sprint forecast? Well, the sprint burndown will give a pretty good indicator, though it's going to take time. It's not usual for a new team to completely misforecast a sprint. Even experienced teams find themselves in the same place from time to time.

          Rather than putting am emphasis and value on whether or not the forecast was accurate, I would suggest focusing on the quality of the work being done and the value it provides the business. Is this a potentially shippable product increment that drives business value? If not, that's a far more interesting question, IMO, than "how accurate are our sprint forecasts?"

          Hope that helps!

          -kevin

          On Feb 12, 2013, at 11:42 AM, czahn777 wrote:

           

          Hi,
          first of all thank you for your responses!

          The reason why i calculate the velocity on a day-by-day basis is,
          that i want to calculate a forecast for a sprint. Just as an additional information to the normal burndown chart!
          I just want to know, if we will finish all stories in the calculated sprint time.

          So i took the average burndown hours(!) per day and use it as a forecast value. This value now shows to me, when we go on with this 'velocity', we will finish all the stories in this sprint until day X, Y or Z.
          And no, i don't want to vary the length, i just want to know if we are in time.

          For your background. We have just started with this project and there is no last sprint yet. And there are no references for this sprint and its velocity.

          regards,
          Christof

          --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Markus Gaertner wrote:
          >
          > Hi Christof,
          >
          > Scrum doesn't say anything about velocity or burn-ups. Usually during
          > courses I ask participants for good reasons to come up with stuff like
          > these. The only answer yet has boiled down to rendezvous planning with some
          > other group or team.
          >
          > Now, I am curious, what daily rendezvous do you face that makes you
          > evaluate the velocity on a day-by-day basis?
          >
          > Best
          > Markus
          >
          > On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 5:38 PM, Christof Zahn wrote:
          >
          > >
          > >
          > > Hi group,
          > >
          > > how do you calculate the burndown rate / velocity for a sprint?
          > > Here's my example / My understanding:
          > >
          > > Start: 42 hours left
          > > End of Day 1: 36 hours left
          > > End of Day 2; 28 hours left
          > > End of Day 3: 18 hours left
          > >
          > > Velocity for
          > > Day 1 is 6 hours (42 minus 36)
          > > Day 2 is 8 hours
          > > Day 3 is 10 hours
          > > Avg. : 8 hours
          > >
          > > So the velocity is nothing more than the "burned down" points or hours per
          > > day.
          > > Am I correct?
          > >
          > > And with that information, how will you do the forecast?
          > > Take the average velocity or the one from the actual day?
          > > Maybe it even depends on the sprint length?! Because the velocity at the
          > > beginning of the sprint is much slower.
          > > So an average value will be not so representative for a good forecast.
          > >
          > >
          > > regards,
          > > christof
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > >
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > --
          > Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
          > Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance Test-Driven
          > Development
          > http://www.shino.de/blog
          > http://www.mgaertne.de
          > http://www.it-agile.de
          > Twitter: @mgaertne
          >


          Kevin Callahan
          Scrum Master & Agile Coach
          LiveWorld Inc.

          Mobile+1 (207) 691-2997
          Emailkcallahan@...
          Skypekevmocal
          Webwww.liveworld.com

          Follow UsFacebook Twitter LinkedIn



        • Ron Jeffries
          Christof, ... What do you do when it says all s good? What do you do when it says you re late? What do you do when it says all s good and at the end of the
          Message 4 of 10 , Feb 13, 2013
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            Christof,

            On Feb 12, 2013, at 11:42 AM, "czahn777" <czahn@...> wrote:

            So i took the average burndown hours(!) per day and use it as a forecast value. This value now shows to me, when we go on with this 'velocity', we will finish all the stories in this sprint until day X, Y or Z. 
            And no, i don't want to vary the length, i just want to know if we are in time.

            What do you do when it says all's good? What do you do when it says you're late?

            What do you do when it says all's good and at the end of the Sprint not everything is done?

            Ron Jeffries
            If another does not intend offense, it is wrong for me to seek it;
            if another does indeed intend offense, it is foolish for me to permit it.
              -- Kelly Easterley

          • Markus Gaertner
            I probably only speak from my own experiences there, but I have seen most teams being perfectly comfortable with seeing the progress they make on their
            Message 5 of 10 , Feb 13, 2013
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              I probably only speak from my own experiences there, but I have seen
              most teams being perfectly comfortable with seeing the progress they
              make on their taskboard. When there are four days in the sprint left,
              and just one out of five stories is finished, they exactly know they
              have bad news, and need to speak to the product owner about it. On the
              other hand, if four days before sprint review four out of five stories
              are done, and the PO had a look on them, and the fifth story is
              half-way through, they know, they are likely to finish that last story
              as well.

              Usually the visual impression of the taskboard gives clues to your
              progress. And you update that one anyways. The teams I worked with
              were pretty comfortable with that.

              Best
              Markus

              On Tue, Feb 12, 2013 at 5:42 PM, czahn777 <czahn@...> wrote:
              > Hi,
              > first of all thank you for your responses!
              >
              > The reason why i calculate the velocity on a day-by-day basis is,
              > that i want to calculate a forecast for a sprint. Just as an additional information to the normal burndown chart!
              > I just want to know, if we will finish all stories in the calculated sprint time.
              >
              > So i took the average burndown hours(!) per day and use it as a forecast value. This value now shows to me, when we go on with this 'velocity', we will finish all the stories in this sprint until day X, Y or Z.
              > And no, i don't want to vary the length, i just want to know if we are in time.
              >
              > For your background. We have just started with this project and there is no last sprint yet. And there are no references for this sprint and its velocity.
              >
              > regards,
              > Christof
              >
              >
              > --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Markus Gaertner wrote:
              >>
              >> Hi Christof,
              >>
              >> Scrum doesn't say anything about velocity or burn-ups. Usually during
              >> courses I ask participants for good reasons to come up with stuff like
              >> these. The only answer yet has boiled down to rendezvous planning with some
              >> other group or team.
              >>
              >> Now, I am curious, what daily rendezvous do you face that makes you
              >> evaluate the velocity on a day-by-day basis?
              >>
              >> Best
              >> Markus
              >>
              >> On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 5:38 PM, Christof Zahn wrote:
              >>
              >> >
              >> >
              >> > Hi group,
              >> >
              >> > how do you calculate the burndown rate / velocity for a sprint?
              >> > Here's my example / My understanding:
              >> >
              >> > Start: 42 hours left
              >> > End of Day 1: 36 hours left
              >> > End of Day 2; 28 hours left
              >> > End of Day 3: 18 hours left
              >> >
              >> > Velocity for
              >> > Day 1 is 6 hours (42 minus 36)
              >> > Day 2 is 8 hours
              >> > Day 3 is 10 hours
              >> > Avg. : 8 hours
              >> >
              >> > So the velocity is nothing more than the "burned down" points or hours per
              >> > day.
              >> > Am I correct?
              >> >
              >> > And with that information, how will you do the forecast?
              >> > Take the average velocity or the one from the actual day?
              >> > Maybe it even depends on the sprint length?! Because the velocity at the
              >> > beginning of the sprint is much slower.
              >> > So an average value will be not so representative for a good forecast.
              >> >
              >> >
              >> > regards,
              >> > christof
              >> >
              >> >
              >> >
              >> >
              >> >
              >> >
              >> >
              >> >
              >>
              >>
              >>
              >>
              >> --
              >> Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
              >> Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance Test-Driven
              >> Development
              >> http://www.shino.de/blog
              >> http://www.mgaertne.de
              >> http://www.it-agile.de
              >> Twitter: @mgaertne
              >>
              >
              >
              >
              > ------------------------------------
              >
              > To Post a message, send it to: scrumdevelopment@...
              > To Unsubscribe, send a blank message to: scrumdevelopment-unsubscribe@...! Groups Links
              >
              >
              >



              --
              Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
              Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance
              Test-Driven Development
              http://www.shino.de/blog
              http://www.mgaertne.de
              http://www.it-agile.de
              Twitter: @mgaertne
            • extremeprogrammer
              I advise you not do do this for two reasons: 1. Many teams have a burndown signature that is visible after several sprints. This arises from the teams
              Message 6 of 10 , Feb 14, 2013
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                I advise you not do do this for two reasons:

                1. Many teams have a "burndown signature" that is visible after several sprints. This arises from the teams preferences, maybe for doing a few small stories first, then tackling hard ones, leaving some smaller ones at the end, or maybe they tackle the hard ones first, etc. The belief that the burndown should follow some sort of "ideal" line is clinging to the old world.

                2. http://www.casualmiracles.com/2011/05/16/burndown-prediction-confidence-and-risk/

                Regards,

                Lance

                --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, "czahn777" wrote:
                >
                > Hi,
                > first of all thank you for your responses!
                >
                > The reason why i calculate the velocity on a day-by-day basis is,
                > that i want to calculate a forecast for a sprint. Just as an additional information to the normal burndown chart!
                > I just want to know, if we will finish all stories in the calculated sprint time.
                >
                > So i took the average burndown hours(!) per day and use it as a forecast value. This value now shows to me, when we go on with this 'velocity', we will finish all the stories in this sprint until day X, Y or Z.
                > And no, i don't want to vary the length, i just want to know if we are in time.
                >
                > For your background. We have just started with this project and there is no last sprint yet. And there are no references for this sprint and its velocity.
                >
                > regards,
                > Christof
                >
                >
                > --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Markus Gaertner wrote:
                > >
                > > Hi Christof,
                > >
                > > Scrum doesn't say anything about velocity or burn-ups. Usually during
                > > courses I ask participants for good reasons to come up with stuff like
                > > these. The only answer yet has boiled down to rendezvous planning with some
                > > other group or team.
                > >
                > > Now, I am curious, what daily rendezvous do you face that makes you
                > > evaluate the velocity on a day-by-day basis?
                > >
                > > Best
                > > Markus
                > >
                > > On Mon, Feb 11, 2013 at 5:38 PM, Christof Zahn wrote:
                > >
                > > >
                > > >
                > > > Hi group,
                > > >
                > > > how do you calculate the burndown rate / velocity for a sprint?
                > > > Here's my example / My understanding:
                > > >
                > > > Start: 42 hours left
                > > > End of Day 1: 36 hours left
                > > > End of Day 2; 28 hours left
                > > > End of Day 3: 18 hours left
                > > >
                > > > Velocity for
                > > > Day 1 is 6 hours (42 minus 36)
                > > > Day 2 is 8 hours
                > > > Day 3 is 10 hours
                > > > Avg. : 8 hours
                > > >
                > > > So the velocity is nothing more than the "burned down" points or hours per
                > > > day.
                > > > Am I correct?
                > > >
                > > > And with that information, how will you do the forecast?
                > > > Take the average velocity or the one from the actual day?
                > > > Maybe it even depends on the sprint length?! Because the velocity at the
                > > > beginning of the sprint is much slower.
                > > > So an average value will be not so representative for a good forecast.
                > > >
                > > >
                > > > regards,
                > > > christof
                > > >
                > > >
                > > >
                > > >
                > > >
                > > >
                > > >
                > > >
                > >
                > >
                > >
                > >
                > > --
                > > Dipl.-Inform. Markus Gärtner
                > > Author of ATDD by Example - A Practical Guide to Acceptance Test-Driven
                > > Development
                > > http://www.shino.de/blog
                > > http://www.mgaertne.de
                > > http://www.it-agile.de
                > > Twitter: @mgaertne
                > >
                >
              • wwake2
                ... +1 for taskboards over sprint burndowns When I m halfway through a sprint, I d like to see say 40%+ of stories in the done column. That gives me a better
                Message 7 of 10 , Feb 14, 2013
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                  --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Markus Gaertner wrote:
                  >
                  > I probably only speak from my own experiences there, but I have seen
                  > most teams being perfectly comfortable with seeing the progress they
                  > make on their taskboard.

                  +1 for taskboards over sprint burndowns

                  When I'm halfway through a sprint, I'd like to see say 40%+ of stories in the "done" column. That gives me a better indication of progress than seeing that we've burned down half the work we expect to do.

                  I've found the taskboard leads the team to focus more on stories ("what *we're* trying to do") and less on tasks ("what *I'm* trying to do").

                  --
                  Bill Wake @wwake http://xp123.com
                  Industrial Logic, Inc. - Coaching, Training, Assessment, eLearning - http://industriallogic.com
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