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Fwd: Re: Metric: % of projects using agile

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  • Joseph Little
    Hi, Does anyone have something like the table below re Agile adoption? Where might such a thing be found? How might one obtain a wide band delphi opinion on
    Message 1 of 8 , Jan 13, 2009
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      Hi,

      Does anyone have something like the table below re Agile adoption?
      Where might such a thing be found?
      How might one obtain a wide band delphi opinion on the subject? (I am guessing the audience here might be biased <smile>).

      Thanks, Joe



      Something like this:  Numbers are made up here, but maybe by industry or region.

      #Projects        2004                2005                2006                2007                2008                2009

      Agile                8%                12%                17%               
      Waterfall        82%                78%                73%               
      Spiral                6%                9%                8%               
      other                4%                1%                2%               


      Joseph Little
      Agile coach, MBA, CST
      Kitty Hawk Consulting, Inc.
      704-376-8881 (Charlotte)
      917-887-1669 (cell)
      http://www.kittyhawkconsulting.com/
      http://leanagiletraining.com/
      Blog: "Agile & Business"

    • Dave Rooney
      Have you seen Scott Ambler`s data from the Dr. Dobb`s surveys? Here are the 2007 results, including the source data:
      Message 2 of 8 , Jan 13, 2009
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        Have you seen Scott Ambler`s data from the Dr. Dobb`s surveys?

        Here are the 2007 results, including the source data:
        http://www.ambysoft.com/surveys/agileMarch2007.html

        --

        Dave Rooney
        Mayford Technologies
        "Helping you become AGILE... to SURVIVE and THRIVE!"
        http://www.mayford.ca
        http://practicalagility.blogspot.com
        Twitter: daverooneyca



        Joseph Little wrote:
        >
        > Hi,
        >
        > Does anyone have something like the table below re Agile adoption?
        > Where might such a thing be found?
        > How might one obtain a wide band delphi opinion on the subject? (I am
        > guessing the audience here might be biased <smile>).
        >
        > Thanks, Joe
        >
        >
        >
        >> Something like this: Numbers are made up here, but maybe by industry
        >> or region.
        >>
        >> #Projects 2004 2005
        >> 2006 2007 2008 2009
        >>
        >> Agile 8% 12%
        >> 17%
        >> Waterfall 82% 78%
        >> 73%
        >> Spiral 6% 9%
        >> 8%
        >> other 4% 1%
        >> 2%
      • woynam
        As much as I respect Scott, please keep in mind that the surveys do not use a random sample, and are statistically valid. Perhaps it s time for the Agile
        Message 3 of 8 , Jan 13, 2009
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          As much as I respect Scott, please keep in mind that the surveys do
          not use a random sample, and are statistically valid.

          Perhaps it's time for the Agile Alliance or Scrum Alliance to pay for
          a proper study. It's does our community no good to throw around
          statistics that have no scientific basis.

          Mark


          --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Dave Rooney <dave.rooney@...>
          wrote:
          >
          > Have you seen Scott Ambler`s data from the Dr. Dobb`s surveys?
          >
          > Here are the 2007 results, including the source data:
          > http://www.ambysoft.com/surveys/agileMarch2007.html
          >
          > --
          >
          > Dave Rooney
          > Mayford Technologies
          > "Helping you become AGILE... to SURVIVE and THRIVE!"
          > http://www.mayford.ca
          > http://practicalagility.blogspot.com
          > Twitter: daverooneyca
          >
          >
          >
          > Joseph Little wrote:
          > >
          > > Hi,
          > >
          > > Does anyone have something like the table below re Agile adoption?
          > > Where might such a thing be found?
          > > How might one obtain a wide band delphi opinion on the subject? (I am
          > > guessing the audience here might be biased <smile>).
          > >
          > > Thanks, Joe
          > >
          > >
          > >
          > >> Something like this: Numbers are made up here, but maybe by
          industry
          > >> or region.
          > >>
          > >> #Projects 2004 2005
          > >> 2006 2007 2008 2009
          > >>
          > >> Agile 8% 12%
          > >> 17%
          > >> Waterfall 82% 78%
          > >> 73%
          > >> Spiral 6% 9%
          > >> 8%
          > >> other 4% 1%
          > >> 2%
          >
        • Dave Rooney
          Scott addresses the bias issue here: http://www.ddj.com/architect/204200877 -- Dave Rooney Mayford Technologies Helping you become AGILE... to SURVIVE and
          Message 4 of 8 , Jan 13, 2009
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            Scott addresses the bias issue here: http://www.ddj.com/architect/204200877

            --

            Dave Rooney
            Mayford Technologies
            "Helping you become AGILE... to SURVIVE and THRIVE!"
            http://www.mayford.ca
            http://practicalagility.blogspot.com
            Twitter: daverooneyca



            woynam wrote:
            > As much as I respect Scott, please keep in mind that the surveys do
            > not use a random sample, and are statistically valid.
            >
            > Perhaps it's time for the Agile Alliance or Scrum Alliance to pay for
            > a proper study. It's does our community no good to throw around
            > statistics that have no scientific basis.
            >
            > Mark
            >
            >
            > --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Dave Rooney <dave.rooney@...>
            > wrote:
            >
            >> Have you seen Scott Ambler`s data from the Dr. Dobb`s surveys?
            >>
            >> Here are the 2007 results, including the source data:
            >> http://www.ambysoft.com/surveys/agileMarch2007.html
            >>
            >> --
            >>
            >> Dave Rooney
            >> Mayford Technologies
            >> "Helping you become AGILE... to SURVIVE and THRIVE!"
            >> http://www.mayford.ca
            >> http://practicalagility.blogspot.com
            >> Twitter: daverooneyca
            >>
            >>
            >>
            >> Joseph Little wrote:
            >>
            >>> Hi,
            >>>
            >>> Does anyone have something like the table below re Agile adoption?
            >>> Where might such a thing be found?
            >>> How might one obtain a wide band delphi opinion on the subject? (I am
            >>> guessing the audience here might be biased <smile>).
            >>>
            >>> Thanks, Joe
            >>>
            >>>
            >>>
            >>>
            >>>> Something like this: Numbers are made up here, but maybe by
            >>>>
            > industry
            >
            >>>> or region.
            >>>>
            >>>> #Projects 2004 2005
            >>>> 2006 2007 2008 2009
            >>>>
            >>>> Agile 8% 12%
            >>>> 17%
            >>>> Waterfall 82% 78%
            >>>> 73%
            >>>> Spiral 6% 9%
            >>>> 8%
            >>>> other 4% 1%
            >>>> 2%
            >>>>
          • woynam
            He doesn t address the core objection. No survey that involves a self-selecting sample is valid. Also, he s using a list of subscribers for a magazine, rather
            Message 5 of 8 , Jan 13, 2009
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              He doesn't address the core objection. No survey that involves a
              self-selecting sample is valid.

              Also, he's using a list of subscribers for a magazine, rather than a
              random sample of all IT shops. One has to imagine that Dr Dobbs
              subscribers do not match the demographics of the IT industry in general.

              Mark


              --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Dave Rooney <dave.rooney@...>
              wrote:
              >
              > Scott addresses the bias issue here:
              http://www.ddj.com/architect/204200877
              >
              > --
              >
              > Dave Rooney
              > Mayford Technologies
              > "Helping you become AGILE... to SURVIVE and THRIVE!"
              > http://www.mayford.ca
              > http://practicalagility.blogspot.com
              > Twitter: daverooneyca
              >
              >
              >
              > woynam wrote:
              > > As much as I respect Scott, please keep in mind that the surveys do
              > > not use a random sample, and are statistically valid.
              > >
              > > Perhaps it's time for the Agile Alliance or Scrum Alliance to pay for
              > > a proper study. It's does our community no good to throw around
              > > statistics that have no scientific basis.
              > >
              > > Mark
              > >
              > >
              > > --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Dave Rooney <dave.rooney@>
              > > wrote:
              > >
              > >> Have you seen Scott Ambler`s data from the Dr. Dobb`s surveys?
              > >>
              > >> Here are the 2007 results, including the source data:
              > >> http://www.ambysoft.com/surveys/agileMarch2007.html
              > >>
              > >> --
              > >>
              > >> Dave Rooney
              > >> Mayford Technologies
              > >> "Helping you become AGILE... to SURVIVE and THRIVE!"
              > >> http://www.mayford.ca
              > >> http://practicalagility.blogspot.com
              > >> Twitter: daverooneyca
              > >>
              > >>
              > >>
              > >> Joseph Little wrote:
              > >>
              > >>> Hi,
              > >>>
              > >>> Does anyone have something like the table below re Agile adoption?
              > >>> Where might such a thing be found?
              > >>> How might one obtain a wide band delphi opinion on the subject?
              (I am
              > >>> guessing the audience here might be biased <smile>).
              > >>>
              > >>> Thanks, Joe
              > >>>
              > >>>
              > >>>
              > >>>
              > >>>> Something like this: Numbers are made up here, but maybe by
              > >>>>
              > > industry
              > >
              > >>>> or region.
              > >>>>
              > >>>> #Projects 2004 2005
              > >>>> 2006 2007 2008 2009
              > >>>>
              > >>>> Agile 8% 12%
              > >>>> 17%
              > >>>> Waterfall 82% 78%
              > >>>> 73%
              > >>>> Spiral 6% 9%
              > >>>> 8%
              > >>>> other 4% 1%
              > >>>> 2%
              > >>>>
              >
            • Dave Rooney
              ... I m not going to argue with the statistical validity of the survey. I could just as easily dispute your last sentence, i.e. says who ? Joe asked for
              Message 6 of 8 , Jan 13, 2009
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                woynam wrote:
                > He doesn't address the core objection. No survey that involves a
                > self-selecting sample is valid.
                >
                > Also, he's using a list of subscribers for a magazine, rather than a
                > random sample of all IT shops. One has to imagine that Dr Dobbs
                > subscribers do not match the demographics of the IT industry in general.
                >

                I'm not going to argue with the statistical validity of the survey. I
                could just as easily dispute your last sentence, i.e. "says who"? Joe
                asked for agile adoption numbers, and I pointed him to Scott's.

                In the future, when someone asks for help please don't bitch at a person
                who provides it.

                --

                Dave Rooney
                Mayford Technologies
                "Helping you become AGILE... to SURVIVE and THRIVE!"
                http://www.mayford.ca
                http://practicalagility.blogspot.com
                Twitter: daverooneyca
              • Joseph Little
                Hi Dave, Thanks for your help. My reading of woynam was that, while appreciative of your efforts, he wished for even better data. Those who really want this
                Message 7 of 8 , Jan 13, 2009
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                  Hi Dave,

                  Thanks for your help.
                  My reading of woynam was that, while appreciative of your efforts, he
                  wished for even better data.

                  Those who really want this kind of data tend to be skeptical, so
                  having statistical validity would be good, although probably expensive.

                  One reading that my client was concerned about is depth of adoption.
                  I think it is fair to say that many large firms have tried agile, but
                  we also know that depth of adoption (% of teams using agile) is low in
                  many of them. How low (or high) on average no one really knows, I
                  think. So, I think it is this environment in which my friend wishes
                  to use these numbers (as much as they are there) if he can.

                  I am of two minds. On the one hand, Agile is transparent and should
                  endeavor to make this info available. I think a time series like this
                  will be impressive, albeit perhaps messy.

                  On the other hand, to do agile well, one must have courage and guts.
                  If one embarks on agile just because the numbers say one should (to
                  follow the herd), then I think low success is more likely.

                  Thanks, Joe



                  --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Dave Rooney <dave.rooney@...>
                  wrote:
                  >
                  > woynam wrote:
                  > > He doesn't address the core objection. No survey that involves a
                  > > self-selecting sample is valid.
                  > >
                  > > Also, he's using a list of subscribers for a magazine, rather than a
                  > > random sample of all IT shops. One has to imagine that Dr Dobbs
                  > > subscribers do not match the demographics of the IT industry in
                  general.
                  > >
                  >
                  > I'm not going to argue with the statistical validity of the survey. I
                  > could just as easily dispute your last sentence, i.e. "says who"? Joe
                  > asked for agile adoption numbers, and I pointed him to Scott's.
                  >
                  > In the future, when someone asks for help please don't bitch at a
                  person
                  > who provides it.
                  >
                  > --
                  >
                  > Dave Rooney
                  > Mayford Technologies
                  > "Helping you become AGILE... to SURVIVE and THRIVE!"
                  > http://www.mayford.ca
                  > http://practicalagility.blogspot.com
                  > Twitter: daverooneyca
                  >
                • woynam
                  Yes, exactly. The skeptics and naysayers will use anything available to try to discredit agile. Why give them ammo? The agile community has certainly reached
                  Message 8 of 8 , Jan 14, 2009
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                    Yes, exactly. The skeptics and naysayers will use anything available
                    to try to discredit agile. Why give them ammo?

                    The agile community has certainly reached critical mass, and should
                    have the resources to conduct a proper study.

                    I certainly don't use agile because it's popular or trendy. I don't
                    care if it has a 1% adoption rate, or a 99% adoption rate. However, I
                    do care that the numbers we throw out are valid.

                    Again, I respect Scott and appreciate what he's trying to do. Given
                    that he does the survey as part of his work for Dr. Dobbs, the
                    subscriber list is probably all he has to work with. However, Scott
                    also works for IBM, and they certainly don't have shallow pockets. I'm
                    curious if IBM would be willing to back a study.

                    Mark


                    --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, "Joseph Little"
                    <jhlittle@...> wrote:
                    >
                    > Hi Dave,
                    >
                    > Thanks for your help.
                    > My reading of woynam was that, while appreciative of your efforts, he
                    > wished for even better data.
                    >
                    > Those who really want this kind of data tend to be skeptical, so
                    > having statistical validity would be good, although probably expensive.
                    >
                    > One reading that my client was concerned about is depth of adoption.
                    > I think it is fair to say that many large firms have tried agile, but
                    > we also know that depth of adoption (% of teams using agile) is low in
                    > many of them. How low (or high) on average no one really knows, I
                    > think. So, I think it is this environment in which my friend wishes
                    > to use these numbers (as much as they are there) if he can.
                    >
                    > I am of two minds. On the one hand, Agile is transparent and should
                    > endeavor to make this info available. I think a time series like this
                    > will be impressive, albeit perhaps messy.
                    >
                    > On the other hand, to do agile well, one must have courage and guts.
                    > If one embarks on agile just because the numbers say one should (to
                    > follow the herd), then I think low success is more likely.
                    >
                    > Thanks, Joe
                    >
                    >
                    >
                    > --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Dave Rooney <dave.rooney@>
                    > wrote:
                    > >
                    > > woynam wrote:
                    > > > He doesn't address the core objection. No survey that involves a
                    > > > self-selecting sample is valid.
                    > > >
                    > > > Also, he's using a list of subscribers for a magazine, rather than a
                    > > > random sample of all IT shops. One has to imagine that Dr Dobbs
                    > > > subscribers do not match the demographics of the IT industry in
                    > general.
                    > > >
                    > >
                    > > I'm not going to argue with the statistical validity of the
                    survey. I
                    > > could just as easily dispute your last sentence, i.e. "says who"?
                    Joe
                    > > asked for agile adoption numbers, and I pointed him to Scott's.
                    > >
                    > > In the future, when someone asks for help please don't bitch at a
                    > person
                    > > who provides it.
                    > >
                    > > --
                    > >
                    > > Dave Rooney
                    > > Mayford Technologies
                    > > "Helping you become AGILE... to SURVIVE and THRIVE!"
                    > > http://www.mayford.ca
                    > > http://practicalagility.blogspot.com
                    > > Twitter: daverooneyca
                    > >
                    >
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