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Release Date Projection

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  • bmwpapa
    Forgive me if this has been discussed before. Feel free to point me to earlier postings... I have two questions related to Release Date Projection: 1.
    Message 1 of 4 , Jan 24, 2008
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      Forgive me if this has been discussed before.  Feel free to point me to earlier postings...
       
      I have two questions related to Release Date Projection:
      1.  What Scrum management s/w features Mike Cohn's "Alternate Release Burndown"?
      2.  How have you successfully projected release dates/ranges in Scrum?
       
      BACKGROUND:
      I see the following basic release scenarios:
       
      (a) Fixed Date - Thou shalt release on _____!  Date already projected.  Ship baked features.
      (b) Fixed Features - Thou shalt release with Features A/B/C.  When will it ship?
      (c) Features flexible - We'll figure out later when to ship in an agile fashion (velocity/features/quality).
       
      When I speak about projecting release dates, I'm mostly referring to (c):
       
      With (a), we're done.  We already have a mandated date.  Ship whatever features are baked by then.
      With (b), we know that it's still likely that requirements will change and feature-creep will occur.
      So... when you inspect-and-adapt in the (b) world, you ultimately find yourself in the (c) world...
      DETAILS:
      I love Mike Cohn's "Alternate Release Burndown" description and graph:
       
      That web page has a link to "how to create this type of burndown chart" in Excel.
      And, the following link also has a sample spreadsheet:
       
      But, ideally... I prefer to track everything together using a single tool (and not Excel).
       
      Danube Scrumworks provides this "Enhanced Burndown" feature:
       
      Q: What other Scrum management s/w features this "Alternate Release Burndown"?
      Q: How have you successfully projected release dates/ranges in Scrum?
       
    • bmwpapa
      I posted the original message using the Rich-Text Editor (Beta) and it resulted in an e-mail dump of unformatted text. Perhaps, that s why no responses?
      Message 2 of 4 , Jan 26, 2008
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        I posted the original message using the "Rich-Text Editor (Beta)" and
        it resulted in an e-mail dump of unformatted text. Perhaps, that's
        why no responses? Let me try again in text format...

        ---

        Forgive me if this has been discussed before. Feel free to point me
        to earlier postings...

        I have two questions related to Release Date Projection:
        1. What Scrum s/w features Mike Cohn's "Alternate Release Burndown"?
        2. How have you successfully projected release dates/ranges in Scrum?

        BACKGROUND:

        I see the following basic release scenarios:
        (a) Fixed Date - Done. Date already projected. Ship baked features.
        (b) Fixed Features - Features A/B/C are required. When will it ship?
        (c) Features flexible - Figure out later when to ship.

        When I speak about projecting dates, I'm mostly referring to (c):
        -- With (a), we're done. We already have a mandated date.
        -- With (b), requirements will likely still change.
        -- So... when you inspect-and-adapt in (b), you still end up in (c).

        DETAILS:

        I love Mike Cohn's "Alternate Release Burndown" description and graph:
        http://www.mountaingoatsoftware.com/scrum/altburndown.php

        That site links to "How to create this type of burndown chart" in
        Excel.

        And, the following link also has a sample spreadsheet:
        http://www.scrumalliance.org/resources/6

        But, ideally... I prefer to track using the same tool (not Excel).

        Danube Scrumworks provides this "Enhanced Burndown" feature:
        http://www.danube.com/blog/kanemar/determining_project_release_dates.h
        tml

        Q: What other Scrum s/w features this "Alternate Release Burndown"?
        Q: How have you successfully projected release dates/ranges in Scrum?
      • Michael James
        ... I was waiting to see who else would respond. I have seen people plan and execute releases successfully using ScrumWorks to draw/update the Mike Cohn
        Message 3 of 4 , Feb 1, 2008
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          --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, "bmwpapa" <bmwpapa@...> wrote:

          >
          > I have two questions related to Release Date Projection:
          > 1. What Scrum s/w features Mike Cohn's "Alternate Release Burndown"?
          > 2. How have you successfully projected release dates/ranges in Scrum?
          >

          I was waiting to see who else would respond.

          I have seen people plan and execute releases successfully using
          ScrumWorks to draw/update the Mike Cohn converging release
          burndown charts along the way. "Successfully" here means they
          shipped a tested product on time and gained an increasingly
          clear idea what would be in the actual release by extrapolating
          from the past.

          One could do something similar by manually drawing a line
          in the Product Backlog representing how much work would
          get done by the release date based on past velocity. But
          this is too optimistic; it doesn't take the rate of
          scope increase into account like the Cohn chart, or the
          "burnup" variations that show both scope change and
          velocity.

          --mj (disclaimer: some of my code is probably still in ScrumWorks)
        • Michael James
          (addendum) I also saw an online shopping company use these measurements to realize they would not get their full-blown website replacement done in time for the
          Message 4 of 4 , Feb 1, 2008
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            (addendum)

            I also saw an online shopping company use these measurements
            to realize they would not get their full-blown website replacement
            done in time for the Christmas shopping season. They were
            able to detect this months beforehand and make strategic
            business decisions.

            What would have happened otherwise? Probably the "belief in
            magic" right up to the point the site falls over the day after
            Thanksgiving.

            --mj
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