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Re: Algorithm for Sprint Burn Down Extrapolation

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  • Jason Almeter
    ... I like using several projections. We are not running full scrum, so I usually only have data on a weekly basis. I have projected the burn down with one
    Message 1 of 11 , Jan 2, 2006
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      Ron Jeffries <ronjeffries@...> writes:

      > On Thursday, December 29, 2005, at 1:01:21 PM, Steven Line wrote:
      >
      >> One suggestion we had here is to average the burn down over the last 4
      >> days and merely project that from the last actual burn down point.
      >> That's very simple and makes sense.
      >
      >> Also, how many days of activity do you use to calculate your burn down
      >> extrapolation? We were using 7 days, but are now moving to 4.
      >
      > I look at the line of actual data and extend it using a combination
      > of what looks like a line and what my gut tells me. Either one of
      > those, IMO, works better than a formula.

      I like using several projections. We are not running full scrum, so I
      usually only have data on a weekly basis. I have projected the burn
      down with one week, two week, one month, and one quarter of data. All
      of these on a plot together help call out changes in the burn rate.
      One of my recent victories was getting a team to see that we were in
      trouble and then watching them brutally cut scope until we were back
      on track.

      -jla

      --

      jalmeter under 99 at yahoo
    • Ron Jeffries
      ... Well, in a quarter, you should be done. ;- I d be interested to see one of your charts to get a sense of what they look like and how they call out changes
      Message 2 of 11 , Jan 2, 2006
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        On Monday, January 2, 2006, at 8:52:01 AM, Jason Almeter wrote:

        > I like using several projections. We are not running full scrum, so I
        > usually only have data on a weekly basis. I have projected the burn
        > down with one week, two week, one month, and one quarter of data. All
        > of these on a plot together help call out changes in the burn rate.
        > One of my recent victories was getting a team to see that we were in
        > trouble and then watching them brutally cut scope until we were back
        > on track.

        Well, in a quarter, you should be done. ;->

        I'd be interested to see one of your charts to get a sense of what
        they look like and how they call out changes in the burn rate.

        I'd also be interested in understanding why there are substantial
        changes in the burn rate ...

        Ron Jeffries
        www.XProgramming.com
        Perhaps this Silver Bullet will tell you who I am ...
      • Dave Bly
        Here s one simple approach: If you are charting your burndown on an Excel chart, right-click on the data plot line and select Add Trendline to show a simple
        Message 3 of 11 , Jan 3, 2006
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          Here’s one simple approach:  If you are charting your burndown on an Excel chart, right-click on the data plot line and select “Add Trendline” to show a simple least-squares fit. It will extrapolate that fit line to the end of the chart, i.e. the number of plat point on the X axis.  -- Dave

           


          From: scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com [mailto: scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com ] On Behalf Of Mark Striebeck
          Sent: Thursday, December 29, 2005 10:12 AM
          To: scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: [Norton AntiSpam] Re: [scrumdevelopment] Algorithm for Sprint Burn Down Extrapolation

           

          So far, I stayed away from any extrapolation. I draw the ideal burndown line and then the actual burndown rate. The trend is usually clear. It doesn't give us an exact measure (aka we will be 1.5 days late) but it's enough to make the team aware if corrections are needed.

               MarkS

          On 12/29/05, Steven Line <sline@...> wrote:


          Hi -

          We just started using Scrum a couple of weeks ago.  To calculate our
          projected burn down we're using a 7 day linear regression algorithm. 
          The resultant projected burn down line is trying to replicate the line
          of the past 7 days instead of merely project where it's currently
          headed  (imagine an actual burn down that curves).  If there's an
          upswing then a downswing in our actual burn down, the extrapolated burn
          down will actually jog upwards then downwards, which while
          mathematically correct for a regression, isn't communicating that the
          team is actually burning down, not backing up.

          What formula or algorithm do you use out there in scrum land?

          One suggestion we had here is to average the burn down over the last 4
          days and merely project that from the last actual burn down point. 
          That's very simple and makes sense.

          Also, how many days of activity do you use to calculate your burn down
          extrapolation?  We were using 7 days, but are now moving to 4.

          Thank You,
          Steve


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        • Hubert Smits
          Just like Ron I d be interested to learn more about your approach. I don t understand how looking at more then one week gives you information about successful
          Message 4 of 11 , Jan 3, 2006
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            Just like Ron I'd be interested to learn more about your approach. I
            don't understand how looking at more then one week gives you
            information about successful completion of a sprint/iteration. But
            then, where Ron is stubborn, I am Dutch so that may explain it :-)

            --Hubert



            On 1/2/06, Ron Jeffries <ronjeffries@...> wrote:
            > On Monday, January 2, 2006, at 8:52:01 AM, Jason Almeter wrote:
            >
            > > I like using several projections. We are not running full scrum, so I
            > > usually only have data on a weekly basis. I have projected the burn
            > > down with one week, two week, one month, and one quarter of data. All
            > > of these on a plot together help call out changes in the burn rate.
            > > One of my recent victories was getting a team to see that we were in
            > > trouble and then watching them brutally cut scope until we were back
            > > on track.
            >
            > Well, in a quarter, you should be done. ;->
            >
            > I'd be interested to see one of your charts to get a sense of what
            > they look like and how they call out changes in the burn rate.
            >
            > I'd also be interested in understanding why there are substantial
            > changes in the burn rate ...
            >
            > Ron Jeffries
            > www.XProgramming.com
            > Perhaps this Silver Bullet will tell you who I am ...
            >
            >
            > To Post a message, send it to: scrumdevelopment@...
            > To Unsubscribe, send a blank message to: scrumdevelopment-unsubscribe@...
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