RE: [Retrieved]Re: [scrumdevelopment] Algorithm for Sprint Burn Down Extrapolation
- Hello,This is actually my first response after much reading of other folks posting... I am relatively new to Scrum, but my gut tells me that the essence of Scrum and Agile is simplicity...why not just "eyeball" the burndown and give a swag ( scientific wild a** guess for those not in the know) - the ruler along the trend line works for me ... and be done with it??I would think that the effort put into creating some of these complex algorithms could be better spent on other thingsIMHOJoe RangitschOn Thursday, December 29, 2005, at 1:01:21 PM, Steven Line wrote:
From: email@example.com [mailto:firstname.lastname@example.org] On Behalf Of Ron Jeffries
Sent: Thursday, December 29, 2005 1:38 PM
Subject: [Retrieved]Re: [scrumdevelopment] Algorithm for Sprint Burn Down Extrapolation
> We just started using Scrum a couple of weeks ago. Tocalculate our
> projected burn down we're using a 7 day linear regressionalgorithm.
> The resultant projected burn down line is trying to replicatethe line
> of the past 7 days instead of merely project where it'scurrently
> headed (imagine an actual burn down that curves).If there's an
> upswing then a downswing in our actual burn down, theextrapolated burn
> down will actually jog upwards then downwards, whichwhile
> mathematically correct for a regression, isn't communicating thatthe
> team is actually burning down, not backing up.formula or algorithm do you use out there in scrum land?
> Onesuggestion we had here is to average the burn down over the last 4
> daysand merely project that from the last actual burn down point.
>That's very simple and makes sense.
> Also, how many days of activitydo you use to calculate your burn down
> extrapolation? We wereusing 7 days, but are now moving to 4.
I look at the line of actual data and extend it using a combination
of what looks like a line and what my gut tells me. Either one of
those, IMO, works better than a formula.
But I'm known crazy.
The work teaches us. -- Richard Gabriel
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