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1977Re: Estimates vs Actuals

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  • Øystein Mehus
    Oct 6, 2003
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      --- In scrumdevelopment@yahoogroups.com, Jeff Sutherland <jeff.
      sutherland@c...> wrote:
      > Actually, I generate all the reports in my spare time because the
      system is
      > so efficient. Occasionally I compare the average time to completion
      against
      > initial estimates. In our case, the developers consistently bring in
      the
      > tasks at 86% of initial estimate on average. Looking at any one task
      will
      > just give you a lot of random variation as noted here by others.
      >
      > The real challenge is not time to complete tasks. It is TIME TO
      DELIVERY.

      We use a different bugtracking system, but also track this data in the
      program, and like Jeff said it only takes a few seconds to update the
      data, and a few minutes to generate the reports which can be collected
      any time, every day.

      I've found the numbers useful as a tool in release planning. They
      allow me to automatically generate a buffer "protecting" the release
      based on the SSQ technique described in Mike Cohn's book in progress,
      "User Stories Applied for Agile Software Development" on userstories.
      com. I treat estimates as 50% estimates and auto-generate the 90%
      "estimate" based on the historical deviation from estimates and
      actuals (currently about 70% of tasks come in on or before time).

      We don't steer by the buffer, but I find it adds some value to monitor
      the buffer development from time to time.

      oystein
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