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"Beyond Drake's Equation" --New Insights into the Search for Extraterrestrial Ci

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  • derhexer@aol.com
    URL to an interesting post from The Daily Galaxy _http://tinyurl.com/ae32wt3_ (http://tinyurl.com/ae32wt3) Some new insights into search for extraterrestrial
    Message 1 of 1 , Dec 8, 2012
      URL to an interesting post from The Daily Galaxy
      _http://tinyurl.com/ae32wt3_ (http://tinyurl.com/ae32wt3)

      Some new insights into search for extraterrestrial intelligences


      (Madness takes its toll. Please have exact change)

      Some paragraphs from the post
      "...The Drake Equation does not take into consideration such factors as the
      age of the Galaxy, when intelligence first emerged, or the presence of
      physio-chemical variables such as the presence of metals necessary for the
      presence of life and the formation of planets. The equation, Dvorsky
      emphasizes, assumes "a sort of cosmological uniformity rather than a dynamic and
      ever changing universe."
      The equation asks us to guess the number of Earth-like planets, but it does
      not ask us to estimate when Earth-like planets evolve advanced life forms.
      The Milky Way's extreme age and the potential for intelligence, which may
      have been present as long as 2 to 4.5 billion years ago, to have emerged at
      disparate points in time leaves an absurdly narrow window for detecting
      radio signals.

      The Drake Equation, Dvorsky believes, does not tell us about exponential
      civilizational growth on account of _Von Neumann probe_
      (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft) disbursement. "It does not tell us
      where advanced ETI’s may be dwelling or what they’re up to (are they outside
      the Galaxy? Do they live inside Jupiter Brains? Do they phase shift
      outside of what we regard as habitable space? ).

      This is a serious shortcoming because the answers to these questions
      should help us determine not just where we should be looking, but they can also
      provide us with insight as to the makeup of advanced intelligence life and
      our own potential trajectory."

      In other words, Dvorsky concludes, post-Singularity machine-based
      intelligence may represent the most common mode of existence for late-stage
      civilizations. And that’s who we should be looking for rather than radio
      transmitting civilizations.

      Since 1992 astronomers have been finding more and more exoplanets and as
      of today over to 2000 exoplanets are confirmed. The number of Sun-like stars
      with planets is believed to be around 40% or higher. Currently most of the
      planets found are massive and orbit very close to their stars (they’re
      called Hot Jupiters), but as detection techniques improve scientists think
      many more planets will be found of different sizes and orbits.

      Research of the past two decades have shown that literally billions of
      planets in the Milky Way might have niches that would support at least a level
      of life represented by Earth's extremophiles.

      Yet, in 2012, Drake Equation is of still of seminal importance because it
      orders our thinking. This one equation formed the backbone of astrobiology
      as a science. Carl Sagan was inspired that the Drake Equation showed the
      chances of intelligent alien life were high but he also added that
      extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
      In 2010, the Italian astronomer Claudio Maccone published in the journal
      Acta Astronautica the Statistical Drake Equation (_SDE_
      (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_differential_equation) ). It is mathematically more
      complex and robust than the Classical Drake Equation (CDE).
      The SDE is based on the Central Limit Theorem, which states that given the
      enough number of independent random variables with finite mean and
      variance, those variables will be normally distributed as represented by a Gaussian
      or bell curve in a plot. In this way, each of the seven factors of the
      Drake Equation become independent positive random variables. In his paper,
      Maccone tested his SDE using values usually accepted by the SETI community,
      and the results may be good news for the “alien hunters”.
      Although the numerical results were not his objective, Maccone estimated
      with his SDE that our galaxy may harbor 4,590 extraterrestrial civilizations.
      Assuming the same values for each term the Classical Drake Equation
      estimates only 3,500. So the SDE adds more than 1,000 civilizations to the
      previous estimate...."

      [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
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