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11956Evolutionary Timeline for Machine Intelligence (Today's Most Popular)

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  • derhexer@aol.com
    Nov 1, 2011
    • 0 Attachment
      URL to an interesting article in Daily Galaxy
      http://tinyurl.com/6hrokyw


      I hope we can form a partnership with our robots and AIs, humans have
      creativity and imagination.

      First few paragraphs

      “I see a strong parallel between the evolution of robot intelligence and
      the biological intelligence that preceded it. The largest nervous systems
      doubled in size about every fifteen million years since the Cambrian explosion
      550 million years ago. Robot controllers double in complexity (processing
      power) every year or two. They are now barely at the lower range of
      vertebrate complexity, but should catch up with us within a half century."

      Hans Moravec, pioneer in mobile robot research and a founder of Carnegie
      Mellon University's Robotics Institute.

      According to Moravec, our robot creations are evolving similar to how life
      on Earth evolved, only at warp speed. By his calculations, by mid-century
      no human task, physical or intellectual, will be beyond the scope of
      robots.




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      Here is a summary of his educated predictions for the future of robotics
      up until they can do everything we can do:

      2015: Utility robots host programs for several tasks. Larger "Utility
      Robots" with manipulator arms able to run several different programs to perform
      different tasks may follow single-purpose home robots. Their tens of
      billion calculation per second computers would support narrow inflexible
      competences, perhaps comparable to the skills of an amphibian, like a frog.

      2020: Universal robots host programs for most simple chores. Larger
      machines with manipulator arms and the ability to perform several different tasks
      may follow, culminating eventually in human-scale "universal" robots that
      can run application programs for most simple chores. Their tens of billion
      calculation per second lizard-scale minds would execute application
      programs with reptilian inflexibility.

      2030: Robot competence will become comparable to larger mammals. In the
      decades following the first universal robots, a second generation with
      mammallike brainpower and cognitive ability will emerge. They will have a
      conditioned learning mechanism, and steer among alternative paths in their
      application programs on the basis of past experience, gradually adapting to their
      special circumstances. A third generation will think like small primates
      and maintain physical, cultural and psychological models of their world to
      mentally rehearse and optimize tasks before physically performing them. A
      fourth, humanlike, generation will abstract and reason from the world model.

      If Moravec is correct in his predictions, if won’t be long before robots
      have cognition. With daily breakthroughs happening in the robotic community—
      it may happen even sooner. Not only will they be able to think
      autonomously, but robot intelligence and capabilities would equal (and most likely
      quickly surpass) any human capability.

      That likely possibility begs the question, what happens when robots are
      superior to their creators? Will they still be subservient to us, or will the
      popular “robot takeover” of sci-fi movies become reality? I love robots
      as much as the next geek, but maybe we need some sort of plan for when they
      stop loving us…




      Chris

      (I reject your reality and substitute my own)

      [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]