- --- In primenumbers@yahoogroups.com,

"WarrenS" <warren.wds@...> wrote:

> > Let N(a,n1,n2) be the number of primes of the form

Bad models.

> > n^2+n+a with n in [n1,n1+n2]. Then the data

> >

> > N(247757,0,10^6) = 324001

> > N(3399714628553118047,0,10^6) = 251841

> >

> > seem to favour the smaller value of a. Yet these data

> >

> > N(247757,10^12,10^6) = 148817

> > N(3399714628553118047,10^12,10^6) = 193947

> >

> > indicate that the larger value of a is better, in the long run.

>

> --these numbers seem to be in vast violation of naive statistical

> models.

> Is the reason, that the length n2 of the sampling interval,

No. Rather it is that n1, the begining of the sampling

> needs to be substantially larger than a, in order for naive

> statistical models to become reasonably valid?

interval, needs to be substantially larger than sqrt(a),

for the HL heuristic to win out. Clearly when

n1 < sqrt(3399714628553118047), Marion was comparing apples

and oranges, since log(n^2+n+a) was dominated by "a".

All I did was to level the playing field, here:

> N(247757,10^12,10^6) = 148817

to allow the HL heuristic to show through.

> N(3399714628553118047,10^12,10^6) = 193947

It's a simple as that. No shock-horror for statisticians;

Just a trivial observation by a log-lover :-)

David - --- In primenumbers@yahoogroups.com,

"WarrenS" <warren.wds@...> wrote:

> > Let N(a,n1,n2) be the number of primes of the form

Bad models.

> > n^2+n+a with n in [n1,n1+n2]. Then the data

> >

> > N(247757,0,10^6) = 324001

> > N(3399714628553118047,0,10^6) = 251841

> >

> > seem to favour the smaller value of a. Yet these data

> >

> > N(247757,10^12,10^6) = 148817

> > N(3399714628553118047,10^12,10^6) = 193947

> >

> > indicate that the larger value of a is better, in the long run.

>

> --these numbers seem to be in vast violation of naive statistical

> models.

> Is the reason, that the length n2 of the sampling interval,

No. Rather it is that n1, the begining of the sampling

> needs to be substantially larger than a, in order for naive

> statistical models to become reasonably valid?

interval, needs to be substantially larger than sqrt(a),

for the HL heuristic to win out. Clearly when

n1 < sqrt(3399714628553118047), Marion was comparing apples

and oranges, since log(n^2+n+a) was dominated by "a".

All I did was to level the playing field, here:

> N(247757,10^12,10^6) = 148817

to allow the HL heuristic to show through.

> N(3399714628553118047,10^12,10^6) = 193947

It's a simple as that. No shock-horror for statisticians;

Just a trivial observation by a log-lover :-)

David