--- On Mon, 1/3/11, djbroadhurst <

d.broadhurst@...> wrote:

> --- In primenumbers@yahoogroups.com,

> Kevin Acres <research@...> wrote:

> > I expect this to give an extra 6 or so 15/16 chains on

> > top of the 18 I have now.

>

> The bad news, of course, is that Poisson gives you

> no credit whatsoever for the 18 previous failures.

> Your chance of success with the next 6 is about

> 1 - exp(-6*mu) =~ 50%

> if we are are right about the mean probability

> mu =~ 1/9.

>

> Good luck!

You're being willed on from here in Estonia, too, Kevin!

I always like to believe that the same kind of influence that sticks the e^-gamma term into prime density expressions is kind enough to violate the Poisson independence criterion too.

Phil