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15513speedup by a factor of about 58

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  • David Broadhurst
    Oct 30, 2004
      Periodically, I am moved to contribute off-topic numbers.
      Today, I should like to comment on these numerical data:


      >>"The risk of death from violence in the period after the invasion
      was 58 times higher than in the period before the war," Les Roberts
      and his colleagues said in the report which compared Iraqi deaths
      during 14.6 months before the invasion and the 17.8 months after it.
      He added that violent deaths were widespread and were mainly
      attributed to coalition forces. "Most individuals reportedly killed
      by coalition forces were women and children," Roberts added.<<

      I have studied the statistical analysis, published in the journal
      the Lancet, upon which that Reuters summary was based. The analysis
      was limited by the danger entailed in the acquisition of data.
      At the 95% confidence level, the effect of US/UK invasion is
      reported as increasing the chance of violent death in Iraq by a
      factor which may range between 8.1 and 419, with 58 being
      the most probable US/UK multiplier.

      If you wish to contest or review this analysis, please study


      which is accessible after a simple registration process.

      I am grateful to the editors of the Lancet for this comment:

      > For the sake of a country in crisis and for a people
      > under daily threat of violence, the evidence that we
      > publish today must change heads as well as pierce hearts.

      David Broadhurst