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Group Description

Safety First. Long-term investing to preserve the purchasing power of capital and maximize total return.

Price is not value. Pricing is not valuation. Pricing models are not valuation models.

DCF valuation models of fair or intrinsic value calculate the discounted present value of expected future cash flows. In contrast, value as measured by a combination of financial accounting metrics and market-generated share price is at best useful for screening a universe of stocks to produce a short list for deeper research.

Stock pricing models based on size as measured by market capitalization or on value as measured by a share-price ratio such as book-to-market equity are based on fallacies, not anomalies. Size and price ratios are logically circular with return. Thus, they are meaningless and indeterminate. Introductory econometrics shows that in return models, size and price ratios cannot be validly estimated by the classic linear regression model and the Gauss-Markov theorem, although some academics invoke both to justify their fabricated falsified results. In such models, size and price ratios are not scientific. There is no reason for portfolios formed on size or a price ratio to produce premium risk-adjusted average returns relative to conventional benchmarks in any time period.

REMEMBER: Do your own research. You are responsible for your own decisions and their consequences.


1. Anyone posting sexual or get-rich-quick messages will be immediately banned from the list.

2. Posts must be substantively on topic and not just teaser lines.

3. Any commercial messages should be confined to a maximum 5-line signature block.

4. Try not to discuss individual stocks or mutual funds.

5. List Management reserves rights to restrict and deny access to anyone.

6. If you don't agree with the above rules, don't join this group.

Group Information

  • 402
  • General
  • Jul 9, 2003
  • English

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