The Mexican presidential election race is already on
The Mexican presidential election is two years away, but in Mexican politics that means it is just around the corner.
For that reason, it was not a surprise yesterday when two politicians announced their intention to run for the presidential seat in 2012.
Andrés Manuel López Obrador, “El Peje,” said that he will try to consolidate an alliance with the progressive political forces headed by the PT (Partido del Trabajo) and with that, he will fight for the presidential post.
Most likely you remember López Obrador, the popular leftist candidate in the 2006 presidential election, who lost against Felipe Calderón by a narrow margin of .58 percentage points. López Obrador argued that the election was fraudulent and he refused to recognize Calderon’s victory.
Although López Obrador still has plenty of supporters, his popularity now is not as high as it used to be. In fact, his differences with his own party, the PRD (Partido de la Revoluciόn Democrática), and his radical positions on many issues have not helped him to maintain that widespread political support. However, he could still be a strong candidate.
Another politician who has announced his decision to compete for the presidential seat is the former secretary of the interior and current PAN (Partido Acciόn Nacional) Senator Santiago Creel, who was defeated by Calderón in PAN’s primary election in 2006.
Ironically, none of these aspiring candidates is now at the top of the electoral preference list.
According to the most recent Consulta Mitofsky poll, the person who is at the top of the list is the current PRI (Partido Revolucionario Institutional) governor of the state of Mexico, Enrique Peña Nieto. Although he seems to be the most likely PRI candidate, he has not yet stated openly that he will go for it. Maybe he is trying to be careful and prudent, but nobody doubts that he will be the candidate.
The Consulta Mitofsky poll ’s results indicated that if the presidential election was held today, 53 percent of Mexicans would vote for Peña Nieto, 14 percent would vote for Creel and 13 percent for López Obrador. In other words, if the election was was held today, Mexicans would choose a president from the PRI.
Without any doubt, this trend will change in the following months. Most likely, López Obrador will have face a strong rival from inside his own leftist party, –the current major of Mexico City, Marcelo Ebrard, who has been successful in building his popularity as an institutional and consistent politician. If Ebrard announces his decision to fight for the candidacy, the left’s political balance will change dramatically.
Also, there’s not any clear indication about who will be PAN’s final candidate, as the right-wing party is going through a serious crisis that has the potential to deeply divide its members. In the center of the conflict is the PAN’s leaders strategy of building political alliance with opposition parties, including the leftist PRD.
It’s too early to predict who will win the 2012 presidential election, but it is not early enough to start taking notice of these political movements, because they are already shaping the political future of Mexico.
Posted at 01:22 PM