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Gregory's White House Predictions

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  • Gregory
    ELECTION 2004 Throughout this election, (that means over 18 months) I have read, listened, and watched the story develop into what most everyone concedes is
    Message 1 of 7 , Oct 25, 2004
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      ELECTION 2004



      Throughout this election, (that means over 18 months) I have read,
      listened, and watched the story develop into what most everyone
      concedes is the most important election of our lifetime. The power
      of a vote cannot be over estimated. Within a short period of time we
      will know if the ideas learned in our youth about the Age of
      Enlightenment, where human reasoning and rational debate support the
      source of political truth, will be victorious.



      One amazing statistic has been a focal point of mine throughout this
      year. Going into this election, out of the 7,382 state
      Representatives and State Senators in this country, 49.7 were
      Republican and 49.3 were Democratic. Lets face it; my role as a
      prognosticator is a tough one. Onwards!



      I will be brief in my thoughts and straightforward with my
      predictions.



      During the Presidential race I have asked myself a few questions. I
      still do not have the answers, but the ideas below were factors in my
      thought process as I evaluated the possible outcome.



      1.I have yet to meet and talk with anyone who voted for Gore in 2000
      that now intends to cast a ballot for Bush.
      2.There are countless new registrants in all of the swing states, but
      will they actually go to the polls and vote on Election Day? I still
      am not convinced that young voters, 18-25 will turn out to vote in
      the volume that will impact the overall vote.
      3.How incorrect are the various polls since many (most) do not
      include new voters?
      4.How will the various state constitutional amendments regarding the
      marriage amendment impact voter turnout, state returns, and
      Congressional elections? Eleven states have the marriage issue on
      their ballot, including the swing state of Ohio. Do religious
      conservatives that otherwise may not have voted, decide to cast a
      ballot on the amendment, and also cast a vote for Bush?
      5.Colorado voters will decide the most fundamentally significant
      political measure this year. Should the state cast its nine
      presidential electoral votes proportionally instead of "winner take
      all?" If it passes, it would take effect this year. However, I
      predict that this measure will fail passage.
      6.West Virginia traditionally has been a Democratic state. This year
      on the ballot voters will decide if $8 million for veterans' health
      benefits will be paid out of state coffers. How does this affect the
      race at the top of the ballot in a state Kerry needs to win?
      7.White evangelical Christians lean 4 to 1 for Bush and account for
      50 million voters, half of which is predicted to vote. I suggest
      that Bush will poll ahead of this prediction, but to what effect?
      Will it come from basically non-swing states, and therefore have less
      effect on the national race? Will it insure GOP Senate victories?
      Conservative Christians see cultural issues at stake in this
      election; Democrats have been focusing on messages of economic equity
      and social justice. Which of these arguments will the majority of
      Christians support?
      8.What impact will 20 states, which allow votes to be cast as much as
      40 days in advance of Nov. 2nd have on voter turnout and final
      results?
      9.What factor does Ralph Nader play, and will the voters who see him
      as a viable candidate at the same time see Bush as a threat to their
      future?
      10.Bush received about 8% of the African-American vote in 2000 and I
      suspect, based on faith and social issues he will receive slightly
      more votes from this group next Tuesday. But how energized is this
      segment of the vote for Kerry?
      11.The majority of Jewish voters will cast ballots for Kerry, but
      Bush will make inroads due to his Middle East polices, which will
      increase his Jewish vote total from 2000. This will be a factor in
      Florida.
      12.Call me old fashioned, but I still believe you pick a Vice-
      President because they can either deliver a state or adds stature to
      the top of the ticket. Democrats did not achieve this in 2004.




      My Prediction: Bush 275 electoral votes with Kerry receiving 263
      electoral votes.

      My Prediction is a national turnout of between 57-58% with a record
      Wisconsin turnout that exceeds 2.5 million voters. I also proudly
      predict that Wisconsin will lead the country with the highest % of a
      states population voting.





      GOP States
      Alabama –The red clay hills of Alabama, whose inhabitants voted in
      seven of the past eight Presidential elections for the GOP, will do
      so again.

      Alaska- Being the home of Prudhoe Bay and ANWAR, energy policy
      impacts the lives of everyone, including the 50,000 Natives who still
      live in the Alaska Bush. As expected the state goes to the GOP.

      Arizona-The desert republic where 1/4th of the population is Hispanic
      will cast its lot with Bush. The Republicans have won twelve of the
      last thirteen Presidential elections. (Clinton in 1996 was the
      exception)

      Arkansas- A state with a history of turbulent politics. Both US
      senate seats are held by Democrats, as are three of the four House
      seats, and 70% of the Legislature. However, Bush wins here in 2004.
      If Gore had won this state in 2000 he would have been President. The
      marriage amendment is on the ballot.

      Colorado-Raucous mining towns started this beautiful state and
      raucous politics dominates it today. With an influx of new voters
      who are more moderate, the overall demographics are changing, but the
      GOP holds it's own for now and sends Bush it's electoral votes. The
      ballot imitative for splitting the Electoral College votes fails by
      at least 15%.

      Florida-What can I say that hasn't been stated many times. A
      tarnished reputation. I just firmly believe that while Kerry made
      inroads into this state, and the polls show a real race, the Cuban
      population, conservative Hispanics, along with an energized religious
      vote including part of the Democratic base, Jewish voters (due to
      Israeli policies) will put this state in Bush's column.

      Georgia- After what happened to Max Cleland in 2002 and the antics of
      Zell Miller, the state is, for all practical purposes, a one party
      state. Social conservatives have a free hand and Bush wins BIG by at
      least 20%. Marriage amendment is on the ballot.

      Idaho-Since this is Bush Country and there is not much more to add,
      let me say one of the best, most unforgettable historical dramas I
      have ever read takes place in Idaho. Written by J. Anthony
      Lukas' "Big Trouble." deals with the bomb that kills Idaho's former
      Governor at his garden gate at Christmastime in 1905. This story
      includes President Teddy Roosevelt and Justice Oliver Wendell
      Holmes. The story is more interesting than most books you will ever
      reach for!

      Indiana-No Democrat has won here since LBJ in 1964, and has gone GOP
      in 15 of the past 16 elections. In the 1800's those who migrated to
      Indiana were called "Butternuts" and most of them voted Democratic.
      The Yankees from Ohio and New England were the Republicans.

      Iowa-This state goes for Bush after the narrow loss he experienced
      here in 2000. A farm state, with a Republican tradition will cast a
      ballot where terrorism and the Bush message resonate. Traditional
      and "value oriented" voters give Bush the win and perhaps the
      Presidency.

      Kansas-Washington Post reporter James Dickenson wrote of his
      grandmother, "Like everyone else she was taught that the earth and
      the other planets circled the sun, but deep down she had the feeling
      that the sun and the rest of the cosmos really revolved around
      western Kansas." Since 1940 this rural state has sided with the
      Republican candidate 15 of the past 16 elections.

      Kentucky- One figure that I jotted down earlier this year is amazing
      to me. Most of the 120 counties in this state vote the same as they
      did in the Civil War years. The eastern mountains and coal mining
      regions vote Democratic and the regions around Louisville, and other
      former non-slave holding regions, Republican. The marriage amendment
      is on the ballot. The story here is not Kerry or Bush but Senator
      Bunning. He proves all the unique GOP problems are not in Illinois.

      Louisiana-Political divides are deep and well entrenched here.
      Cajuns, Louisiana Baptists, Protestant parishes, blacks, whites; they
      all share wide economic disparities throughout the state. Remember
      when Kerry said he and Edwards would vigorously contest this state?

      Mississippi-A state caught up in its fabled past votes against its
      own economic interests again. The marriage amendment is on the
      ballot.

      Missouri-I predict that the morning after the election lots of people
      say, `Why didn't Kerry compete here and try harder?" The reason is
      that Bush wins here with only 3% over Kerry. I have not understood
      the Democratic strategy in this state, or why they did not spend more
      resources in this historically bellwether state.

      Montana- Marriage amendment is on the ballot. Bush won by 25% in 2000
      over Gore. Nebraska- The last time this state produced a politician
      who interested the country was William Jennings Bryan…It goes for
      Bush with a huge margin.

      Nevada- Hopes for a "swing state" victory by Kerry were a long shot
      at best. Even though Las Vegas has the fastest growing Hispanic
      population in the nation, the GOP also courts their votes. The waste
      dump issue at Yucca Mountain did not develop to the level it needed
      to become to assist Kerry.

      New Hampshire-This is a Yankee Republican holdout in a region that
      has tended to drift more Democratic. Election night this will be a
      red state in a sea of blue in the northeast.

      North Carolina-This is one example of local politics, in this case
      the US Senate race, making an impact on the top of the ticket.
      Edwards is bright and energetic, but will not be a hometown favorite.

      North Dakota-Independent voters live here with both US Senators
      Democrats, but Bush won here in 2000 with 61% of the vote. The
      marriage amendment is on the ballot

      Oklahoma-The interesting figure to watch here is what I predict will
      be the margin of victory Bush wins by, and the margin of loss the GOP
      senate candidate, Coburn suffers. The marriage amendment is on the
      ballot.

      South Carolina-The GOP has won the past six Presidential elections
      and Bush gets a solid victory here.

      South Dakota-The US Senate race will be close, but Bush wins with
      near 60%. Another state with independent minded voters.

      Tennessee-This once rock solid Democratic state has now joined forces
      with the conservative south.

      Texas-No comment.
      Utah-Religious and social conservatives absolutely adore Bush and I
      predict he does better than 67%, which was his share of the vote in
      2000. And oh yeah…conservatives get to bash their favorite target
      here as the marriage amendment is on the ballot too.

      Virginia-After Bush wins in November it will be ten consecutive
      elections where the GOP was won the Presidential race.
      West Virginia-This state should have resonated with the Democratic
      message on the economy. When the polls showed Kerry could not win
      here, I knew the race was either over, or a miracle would be all that
      could save the Democratic nominee.

      Wisconsin-Voters are getting older, and more conservative in the
      Badger state. Unprecedented voter turnout makes for a long night of
      tallying the end results with the Fox Valley pouring into the polls
      for Bush and disgruntled Democrats pouring lots of pain killer later
      that night.

      Wyoming-Home state hero Dick Cheney, some call him President, helps
      the ticket here and helps keep Bush in the West Wing. (Which is the
      only place we Democrats have a President!)

      .









      DEM States
      California-Bush Sr. wrote that the months he had lived in this state
      were the unhappiest of his life. His family's electoral successes
      here are not memories to recall with smiles either.

      Connecticut-The Bush clan has roots here, Mark Twain wrote
      Huckleberry Finn here, and in 2000 the GOP ticket lost by 18%. The
      republican woes only grew after Gov. Rowland resigned.

      Delaware-A unique and wonderful event takes place in the downstate
      town of Georgetown the Thursday after the election. It is
      called "Return Day" where winners and losers in local elections ride
      in the same car to the downtown area to receive bi-partisan cheers
      from the crowds.

      District of Columbia-Ten square miles of Democrats.

      Hawaii-For older Hawaii voters, Florida's presidential-election
      problems may have a familiar ring. The 1960 race in the islands --
      the first election Hawaii faced as a state -- made Electoral College
      history when Hawaii elected one president, then reversed itself
      during a bitter recount, forcing two different sets of electoral
      delegates to cast votes. The recount was completed by Christmas, and
      showed Kennedy carrying Hawaii by 115 votes. In the congressional
      roll call of delegate votes, Hawaii went to Kennedy when Nixon
      decided not to contest the reversed vote.

      Illinois The Republican party imploded over the past several years
      with Jack Ryan and Alan Keyes the latest installments in a story that
      even Allen Drury ("Advise and Consent" a must read if I can use this
      space for such side notes.) could not have created. The once fertile
      Chicago suburbs for the GOP are no more.

      Maine-I better get this one right or home life might get interesting!
      A hearty breed ekes out a living from the lobster laden North
      Atlantic to the cold potato lands up north. Independence is a
      hallmark of this state with 38% not enrolled in a party. 31% are
      Democrats and 29% Republicans. Let me say that just because you have
      a vacation home here, it does not make you a favorite son.

      Maryland-One of the nations' most Democratic dominated states.

      Massachusetts-"It would be a City On A Hill", wrote John Winthrop of
      the Massachusetts Bay Colony. Liberal moral superiority has its home
      here. I don't think the next President does.

      Michigan-Marriage amendment is on the ballot. The GOP tried to be
      competitive, and to a degree they were, but the economy strikes a
      chord here and Kerry wins. Job losses were high in the manufacturing
      sector.

      Minnesota-This state has given America Hubert Humphrey, Eugene
      McCarthy, and Walter Mondale. I have always believed that this state
      would be in the Kerry column. In fact, Minnesota has the longest
      Democratic winning streak of any state that being 7 Presidential
      election cycles.

      New Jersey-While the GOP hoped that Gov. McGreevey's resignation
      would elevate their state to "in play," it never happened.

      New Mexico-The Hispanic vote here is crucial to Kerry's future. Bill
      Richardson, the current Governor, can also prove that he was the
      secret weapon for the Democrats if he can help make this a blue
      state. Gore won here with only 1/10 of one percent in 2000.

      New York-While state elections here can be quite close, the
      Presidential race will be an easy Kerry win.

      Ohio- This is a pivotal seat for Republicans, and a history making
      state in that every GOP victory for the White House has included
      Ohio. Until this year. Bush loses the state, but still wins 270
      electoral votes. The marriage amendment is on the ballot.

      Oregon-Gore won the state by 6,765 votes. This state is known for
      being a little more progressive and reform minded. In 1998 voters
      passed a ballot measure directing all elections to be conducted by
      mail. The marriage amendment is on the ballot.

      Pennsylvania-Like Ohio, I think this state wanted to hear a different
      message from Bush in 2004 than they heard in 2000. The message of
      fear over terrorism resonates, but the fear of economic disarray
      plays a bigger role here. An energized African American vote will be
      all-important in the cities for Kerry.

      Rhode Island-In 2000 Gore received his biggest vote share here,
      winning with 61% of the vote.

      Vermont-"Yankee Republican" is a term you do not hear as often these
      days. Now Ben and Jerry's ice cream, Howard Dean, and John Kerry is
      the buzz.
      Washington-The economy is the main issue here, as the state
      unemployment level remains higher than the nations
    • Ram Lau
      Gregory, I agree with most of your predictions but NH, AK, FL, and OH. I m quite sure that NH won t go for Bush again this time - making the scoreboard 271-267
      Message 2 of 7 , Oct 26, 2004
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        Gregory,

        I agree with most of your predictions but NH, AK, FL, and OH. I'm
        quite sure that NH won't go for Bush again this time - making the
        scoreboard 271-267 Bush. (I hope not. Not again please.)

        AK, FL and OH can go either way. AK and OH combined is FL. Kerry
        needs to win either AK or FL in addition to OH to win. Or he can win
        AK and FL and let go OH.

        Ram's prediction: Kerry loses the popular vote by close to 1% and
        the electoral vote by close to 1%. Also, Al Gore will be the
        happiest man that day.

        Ram
      • Jesse Gordon
        I disagree on three states. 1) Florida: The polls have it wrong because the pollsters are obligated to discount black males. Pollsters assume each demographic
        Message 3 of 7 , Oct 26, 2004
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          I disagree on three states.

          1) Florida: The polls have it wrong because the pollsters are
          obligated to discount black males. Pollsters assume each demographic
          group votes at the same rates at which they voted in previous
          elections. Black men voted very poorly in 2000 (as well as getting
          intentionally disenfranchised!), so when they reaspond to polls,
          their respose is accordingly discounted mroe than other groups. They
          will vote in very large numebrs this election -- because of getting
          intentionally disenfranchised! -- and will overwhelmingly vote for
          Kerry (and Castor). Anytime there is a sizable group who predictacbly
          break the demographic history, the polls must be incorrect. That's
          why Jesse Ventura was "losing" in the polls by 3% the day before his
          election and won the vote by 3% the next day -- because young people,
          who massively supported Ventura -- are also similarly discounted.

          2) For that same reason, I predict that Salazar will win Colorado,
          because Colorado has an awful lot of Latinos who traditionally dno't
          turn out to vote as well as other groups. I think Martinez will win
          Florida for exactly the same reason. While on'e ethnic group doesn't
          necessarily predict who one votes for, it certainly does when it's
          the first big chance to do so. I'm Jewish, and weas thrilled at the
          chance to vote for Lieberman for VP just on those grounds. This may
          also be enough for Carson in Oklahoma (he's Native American and OK
          has a pretty large demographic there). But the relevant part for the
          presidential race is that Kerry in CO will get coattails from
          Salazar. Specifically, I think the ballot initiative will get some
          Latino coattails, and non-traditional voters will go against the
          electoral college and defeat it. The CO vote will be tight, so I'll
          predict Kerry 5-4, or maybe Bush 5-4, but in either case, it's 4 more
          electoral votes for Kerry than your prediction. I think there'll be
          some coattail effect in FL also from Latinos, but the Cuban vote
          generally goes Republican anyway so the net effect is split.

          3) In NH, the voters are NOT Yankee Republicans. I lived there for
          many years, and that's a poor description. A much better description
          is "iconoclastic libertarians". New Hampshirites LOVE taking down
          people in power, and they LOVE individual attention like they get in
          the primaries (Paul Tsongas himself knocked on my door one year! Whee-
          oh!). Now they're getting the same knock-on-every-door attention in
          the general election, adn mostly from Kerry fans in Massachusetts.
          Every door has been knocked at least twice, to the level where "mixed
          marraige" couples (one D, one R) have had coffee with a persuasive
          speaker for Kerry. That sort of attention works, and of course Kerry
          has more resources there because of the closeness of MA. Oh, and who
          can resist the charming Granny D? Yuo can resist VOTING for her,
          maybe, but many people will succumb to her anti-Bush arguments. NH
          will go nearly 60-40 for Kerry, I'd say -- a landslide. Combine that
          with an iconoclasm that LOVES to vote against incumbents, and I don't
          even see NH as close. Yankee Republicansim might work as you predict
          in Maine, but maybe we'll get a 3-1 split there (another electoral
          split state).

          4) OH is the other big Dem target, but OH is a very big state
          compared to NH. As we saw in the primaries, with Dean, when you cover
          a state with loud and enthusiastic supporters you get.... a
          prediction that maybe Bush will win OH after all. This one's a
          tossup.

          The numbers above add up to a small Kerry victory and are the most
          sure predictions I'll make. I actually predict several other states
          will go blue too, mostly on the two grounds above, of anti-Bush
          iconoclasm and non-traditional demographic turnout. Hence I don't see
          this race as nearly as tight as the polls predict -- Kerry will win
          cleanly.



          --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory" <greggolopry@c...>
          wrote:
          >
          >
          > ELECTION 2004
          > Colorado-Raucous mining towns started this beautiful state and
          > raucous politics dominates it today. With an influx of new voters
          > who are more moderate, the overall demographics are changing, but
          the
          > GOP holds it's own for now and sends Bush it's electoral votes. The
          > ballot imitative for splitting the Electoral College votes fails by
          > at least 15%.
          >
          > Florida-What can I say that hasn't been stated many times. A
          > tarnished reputation. I just firmly believe that while Kerry made
          > inroads into this state, and the polls show a real race, the Cuban
          > population, conservative Hispanics, along with an energized
          religious
          > vote including part of the Democratic base, Jewish voters (due to
          > Israeli policies) will put this state in Bush's column.
          >
          > New Hampshire-This is a Yankee Republican holdout in a region that
          > has tended to drift more Democratic. Election night this will be a
          > red state in a sea of blue in the northeast.
          >
        • greg
          You think Gore might do like Nixon did, and run again in 2008 (if Kerry loses next week)? I ve been thinking for a long time that if Bush somehow loses, that
          Message 4 of 7 , Oct 26, 2004
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            You think Gore might do like Nixon did, and run again in 2008 (if
            Kerry loses next week)?
            I've been thinking for a long time that if Bush somehow loses, that
            he'll do like Cleveland, and run in 2008. No idea how the GOP, or the
            public, would respond to that. I suppose it'd depend on what happens
            in the intervening four years.
            Greg
            > Ram's prediction: Kerry loses the popular vote by close to 1% and
            > the electoral vote by close to 1%. Also, Al Gore will be the
            > happiest man that day.
            >
            > Ram
          • Ram Lau
            It s all up to Hillary. Gore may pull a Nixon if Hillary doesn t run. Then he ll pick either Obama or Landrieu as his running mate. Gore is basically Nixon
            Message 5 of 7 , Oct 26, 2004
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              It's all up to Hillary. Gore may pull a Nixon if Hillary doesn't
              run. Then he'll pick either Obama or Landrieu as his running mate.
              Gore is basically Nixon deja vu in terms of their political careers
              and assets. So I don't see why not.

              Man, I hope Bush won't run again and just focus on his drilling
              instead. Hopefully McCain or Powell will stand up against him if he
              really runs again. I know Grover Cleveland, and Greg, W is no Grover
              Cleveland.

              Ram
            • Gregory
              Excellent response! I hope you know, in fact hope that everybody knows I WANT Kerry to win. But since 1980 when I started making predictions I aim for
              Message 6 of 7 , Oct 26, 2004
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                Excellent response! I hope you know, in fact hope that everybody
                knows I WANT Kerry to win. But since 1980 when I started making
                predictions I aim for objectivity.

                Regarding Florida, perhaps there might be a turnout of African-
                Americans that will prove fruitful for the Kerry forces. I just see
                no evidence of that in any measurable way now, or in the past few
                weeks,. I think there is however, enough data to suggest that Kerry
                is not as popular among that voting bloc as Gore was, and that Bush
                is polling better among that bloc of voters.

                Next, I think Martinez will be a great asset to Bush in reaching out
                to Latino's, etc. I think Martinez wins in Florida. I agree with
                you that Salazar wins Colorado.

                I predict Carson wins in OK as well. I think DeMint wins in South
                Carolina, but I think it is way to close to predict Erskine Bowles
                one way or the other in North Carolina. . Bowles' race has tightened
                up and I think is trending to the GOP. Feingold wins here and that
                is a victory for every American!

                I hope everyone here keeps posting ideas and that we can share follow-
                ups after the returns are in…. whenever that might be!

                Gregory




                --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, "Jesse Gordon" <jesse@j...>
                wrote:
                >
                > I disagree on three states.
                >
                > 1) Florida: The polls have it wrong because the pollsters are
                > obligated to discount black males. Pollsters assume each
                demographic
                > group votes at the same rates at which they voted in previous
                > elections. Black men voted very poorly in 2000 (as well as getting
                > intentionally disenfranchised!), so when they reaspond to polls,
                > their respose is accordingly discounted mroe than other groups.
                They
                > will vote in very large numebrs this election -- because of getting
                > intentionally disenfranchised! -- and will overwhelmingly vote for
                > Kerry (and Castor). Anytime there is a sizable group who
                predictacbly
                > break the demographic history, the polls must be incorrect. That's
                > why Jesse Ventura was "losing" in the polls by 3% the day before
                his
                > election and won the vote by 3% the next day -- because young
                people,
                > who massively supported Ventura -- are also similarly discounted.
                >
                > 2) For that same reason, I predict that Salazar will win Colorado,
                > because Colorado has an awful lot of Latinos who traditionally
                dno't
                > turn out to vote as well as other groups. I think Martinez will win
                > Florida for exactly the same reason. While on'e ethnic group
                doesn't
                > necessarily predict who one votes for, it certainly does when it's
                > the first big chance to do so. I'm Jewish, and weas thrilled at the
                > chance to vote for Lieberman for VP just on those grounds. This may
                > also be enough for Carson in Oklahoma (he's Native American and OK
                > has a pretty large demographic there). But the relevant part for
                the
                > presidential race is that Kerry in CO will get coattails from
                > Salazar. Specifically, I think the ballot initiative will get some
                > Latino coattails, and non-traditional voters will go against the
                > electoral college and defeat it. The CO vote will be tight, so I'll
                > predict Kerry 5-4, or maybe Bush 5-4, but in either case, it's 4
                more
                > electoral votes for Kerry than your prediction. I think there'll be
                > some coattail effect in FL also from Latinos, but the Cuban vote
                > generally goes Republican anyway so the net effect is split.
                >
                > 3) In NH, the voters are NOT Yankee Republicans. I lived there for
                > many years, and that's a poor description. A much better
                description
                > is "iconoclastic libertarians". New Hampshirites LOVE taking down
                > people in power, and they LOVE individual attention like they get
                in
                > the primaries (Paul Tsongas himself knocked on my door one year!
                Whee-
                > oh!). Now they're getting the same knock-on-every-door attention in
                > the general election, adn mostly from Kerry fans in Massachusetts.
                > Every door has been knocked at least twice, to the level
                where "mixed
                > marraige" couples (one D, one R) have had coffee with a persuasive
                > speaker for Kerry. That sort of attention works, and of course
                Kerry
                > has more resources there because of the closeness of MA. Oh, and
                who
                > can resist the charming Granny D? Yuo can resist VOTING for her,
                > maybe, but many people will succumb to her anti-Bush arguments. NH
                > will go nearly 60-40 for Kerry, I'd say -- a landslide. Combine
                that
                > with an iconoclasm that LOVES to vote against incumbents, and I
                don't
                > even see NH as close. Yankee Republicansim might work as you
                predict
                > in Maine, but maybe we'll get a 3-1 split there (another electoral
                > split state).
                >
                > 4) OH is the other big Dem target, but OH is a very big state
                > compared to NH. As we saw in the primaries, with Dean, when you
                cover
                > a state with loud and enthusiastic supporters you get.... a
                > prediction that maybe Bush will win OH after all. This one's a
                > tossup.
                >
                > The numbers above add up to a small Kerry victory and are the most
                > sure predictions I'll make. I actually predict several other states
                > will go blue too, mostly on the two grounds above, of anti-Bush
                > iconoclasm and non-traditional demographic turnout. Hence I don't
                see
                > this race as nearly as tight as the polls predict -- Kerry will win
                > cleanly.
                >
                >
                >
                > --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, "Gregory"
                <greggolopry@c...>
                > wrote:
                > >
                > >
                > > ELECTION 2004
                > > Colorado-Raucous mining towns started this beautiful state and
                > > raucous politics dominates it today. With an influx of new voters
                > > who are more moderate, the overall demographics are changing, but
                > the
                > > GOP holds it's own for now and sends Bush it's electoral votes.
                The
                > > ballot imitative for splitting the Electoral College votes fails
                by
                > > at least 15%.
                > >
                > > Florida-What can I say that hasn't been stated many times. A
                > > tarnished reputation. I just firmly believe that while Kerry made
                > > inroads into this state, and the polls show a real race, the Cuban
                > > population, conservative Hispanics, along with an energized
                > religious
                > > vote including part of the Democratic base, Jewish voters (due to
                > > Israeli policies) will put this state in Bush's column.
                > >
                > > New Hampshire-This is a Yankee Republican holdout in a region that
                > > has tended to drift more Democratic. Election night this will be a
                > > red state in a sea of blue in the northeast.
                > >
              • Gregory
                Ram, I bet we all agree that this stuff is more excitng than those guys who throw sports stats back and forth...this stuff really effects Americans. Keep up
                Message 7 of 7 , Oct 26, 2004
                • 0 Attachment
                  Ram,

                  I bet we all agree that this stuff is more excitng than those guys
                  who throw sports stats back and forth...this stuff really effects
                  Americans.

                  Keep up the wonderful stuff you do here on this site!

                  Gregory


                  --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, "Ram Lau" <ramlau@y...> wrote:
                  >
                  > Gregory,
                  >
                  > I agree with most of your predictions but NH, AK, FL, and OH. I'm
                  > quite sure that NH won't go for Bush again this time - making the
                  > scoreboard 271-267 Bush. (I hope not. Not again please.)
                  >
                  > AK, FL and OH can go either way. AK and OH combined is FL. Kerry
                  > needs to win either AK or FL in addition to OH to win. Or he can
                  win
                  > AK and FL and let go OH.
                  >
                  > Ram's prediction: Kerry loses the popular vote by close to 1% and
                  > the electoral vote by close to 1%. Also, Al Gore will be the
                  > happiest man that day.
                  >
                  > Ram
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