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Re: [prezveepsenator] Re: Katrina Exodus Could Shakeup Political Mix

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  • THOMAS JOHNSON
    I sort of consider Schleshinger the dean of modern presidential historians. I got the story from a panel discussion he had put together on Cspan 2 of
    Message 1 of 20 , Sep 15, 2005
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      I sort of consider Schleshinger the dean of modern
      presidential historians. I got the story from a panel
      discussion he had put together on Cspan 2 of
      historians he had selected to write a series of
      presidential bios for, if I remember correctly, Time
      Warner. For me, the most striking moment came from
      Jean Baker, as she was talking about James Buchanhan.
      I've looked unsuccessfully several times for the exact
      quote, so I'll have to paraphrase: 'James Buchanhan is
      generally considered to be the worst president in US
      history ....AT LEAST UP UNTIL NOW.'
      It was a transformational moment for me. History sorts
      things out. Harry Truman left office with an approval
      rating around 24% after firing MacArthur and lost the
      New Hampshire primary in 1952. Warren G Harding died
      one of the most popular presidents. History has given
      each his due. In my opinion, Truman was the best
      president of the 20th century and Harding was the
      worst, polls be damned.

      Tom



      --- Ram Lau <ramlau@...> wrote:


      ---------------------------------
      Spooky eh! I didn't know about that incident. But it's
      quite natural
      to guess that it could be Twain.

      Man, if I was nearly as knowledgeable as
      Schleshinger...

      Ram


      --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, THOMAS JOHNSON
      <AVRCRDNG@F...>
      wrote:
      > Arthur Schleshinger Jr. asked that very question to
      > Harry Truman, who replied that he believed that it
      was
      > indeed Mark Twain. Schleshinger said he never
      figured
      > out if he was serious or not.
      >
      > --- Ram Lau <ramlau@y...> wrote:
      >
      >
      > ---------------------------------
      > But who would be the ghost writer? Mark Twain? I
      > wonder if he would
      > have written about the Presidency had his lived a
      > little longer.
      >
      > Ram
      >
      >
      > --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, THOMAS
      JOHNSON
      > <AVRCRDNG@F...>
      > wrote:
      > > I knew it was going to be an honest book when he
      > > admits that his main incentive to write it came
      > > largely out of the fact he was broke. I've heard
      > some
      > > historians are suspicious that he could write it
      > that
      > > well without a ghost writer. Any thoughts?
      > >
      > > --- Gregory <greggolopry@c...> wrote:
      > >
      > >
      > > ---------------------------------
      > > The view of Grant has changed over time and I
      think
      > > the best short
      > > version of this tranformation can be found in
      > > Ambrose's book "To
      > > America." He looks at the way he was taught using
      > > views of the time
      > > while he was a college student and then reflects
      on
      > > his attitude
      > > decades later. It should be noted that all figures
      > in
      > > history do not
      > > get, nor deserve a second chance at such a review.

      > > Grant I think
      > > does need added understanding.
      > >
      > > And you are correct too about the collective view
      > that
      > > his writings
      > > are perhaps one of the best accounts of personal
      > > Presidential
      > > writings, if not the best.
      > >
      > > Gregory
      > >
      > > --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, THOMAS
      > > JOHNSON
      > > <AVRCRDNG@F...> wrote:
      > > > I agree that Grant doesn't belong among the
      > absolute
      > > > worst. He was a supporter of black rights and
      > > > reconstruction.. He reminds me of Harding in 2
      > > > regards.. He seemed to be personally honest with
      a
      > > lot
      > > > of crooked friends and was a drinker. I picked
      up
      > a
      > > > copy of his autobiography last night.. I've
      heard
      > > it's
      > > > the best. Anybody got any thoughts on Pierce?
      > > > Interesting tidbit on Barbara Bush.. maybe
      that's
      > > why
      > > > her picture is on the one dollar bill LOL.
      > > >
      > > > Tom
      > > >
      > > >
      > > >
      > > >
      > > > --- Ram Lau <ramlau@y...> wrote:
      > > >
      > > >
      > > > ---------------------------------
      > > > Tom,
      > > >
      > > > I by and large agree with your assessment. But
      in
      > my
      > > > opinion, Bush has
      > > > already outdone Franklin Pierce (D-NH). One
      little
      > > > known fact is that
      > > > Barbara Pierce Bush is an offspring of Franklin
      > > > Pierce. Small world,
      > > > isn't it?
      > > >
      > > > Speaking of ranking the Presidents, I still
      don't
      > > > think Ulysses Grant
      > > > belongs to the group of Pierece and Buchanan.
      > > >
      > > > Ram
      > > >
      > > >
      > > > --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, THOMAS
      > > JOHNSON
      > > > <AVRCRDNG@F...>
      > > > wrote:
      > > > > What I have come to admire about Coolidge was
      > his
      > > > > conviction.. he felt that gov't should be
      small
      > > and
      > > > > stay out of the way. That tends to resonate
      well
      > > > when
      > > > > times are good. But in times of war and
      > > catastrophe,
      > > > > voters look to the gov't for protection and
      > > > > assistance, so here comes Herbert Hoover to
      the
      > > > rescue
      > > > > and he goes from being a relative unknown to a
      > > hero
      > > > > and then president. Then comes FDR winning 4
      > > times,
      > > > so
      > > > > I think the Flood of '27 was the harbinger of
      a
      > > sea
      > > > > change that continued for 50 years till Prop
      13
      > in
      > > > > 1978 and Reagan in 1980.
      > > > > H.W.Brand defines liberalism and conservatism
      by
      > > > > stripping away the social issues and asking
      > simply
      > > > are
      > > > > you for a large gov't or a small one.
      > > > > Our current inhabitant, by that definition, is
      > the
      > > > > most liberal president since LBJ, without any
      of
      > > the
      > > > > redeeming consequences of Johnson's spending (
      > and
      > > > > correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that
      LBJ
      > > did
      > > > > it without borrowing). He is also
      imperialistic
      > > and
      > > > > fostering a wholesale erosion of civil rights
      by
      > > big
      > > > > gov't intrusion and blurring the separation of
      > > > church
      > > > > and state. He has managed to take the worst
      > > aspects
      > > > of
      > > > > both disiplines without retaining any of the
      > > > benefits.
      > > > > He was much worse than Hoover and even Harding
      > > > showed
      > > > > glimpses of competency from time to time. As
      far
      > > as
      > > > > I'm concerned he has already taken a place
      with
      > > > > Franklin Pierce and Andrew Johnson as a
      > miserable
      > > > > failure and if he continues on this path, he
      has
      > a
      > > > > decent shot at passing James Buchanan as the
      > worst
      > > > > president in US history.
      > > > > Maybe the great flood of 2005 will profoundly
      > > > impact
      > > > > the political landscape for some time to come
      as
      > > > well.
      > > > >
      > > > > Tom
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > > --- Ram Lau <ramlau@y...> wrote:
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > > ---------------------------------
      > > > > Difference is that Coolidge would have been
      > > > re-elected
      > > > > had he chosen
      > > > > to run again in 1928. He was still a rather
      > > popular
      > > > > President, and the
      > > > > unfettered capitalistic system took the
      economy
      > to
      > > > the
      > > > > sky (right
      > > > > before the crash).
      > > > >
      > > > > And above all, Coolidge had the moral
      fortitude
      > > that
      > > > I
      > > > > can't see in
      > > > > Bush and his family.
      > > > >
      > > > > Ram
      > > > >
      > > > >
      > > > > --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, THOMAS
      > > > JOHNSON
      > > > > <AVRCRDNG@F...>
      > > > > wrote:
      > > > > > I think the American people have run out of
      > > > > tolerance
      > > > > > for these folks, at least NYT conservative
      > > > columnist
      > > > > > David Brooks thinks so. Bush is now losing
      his
      > > > base
      > > > > > (38% approval rating this week,, I believe
      he
      > > and
      > > > > his
      > > > > > dad are the only Prezs coming in that low
      in
      > > the
      > > > > last
      > > > > > 25 years), and there is a real 'throw the
      bums
      > > > out'
      > > > > > attitude festering. Did anybody catch the
      > BookTV
      > > > > > segment on the flood of 1927? Coolidge
      acted
      > > > > terribly
      > > > > > and Hoover got elected because of it. Look
      for
      > > one
      > > > > of
      > > > > > my crackpot theories coming your way soon..
      > > Can't
      > > > > say
      > > > > > I didn't warn you this time.
      > > > > >
      > > > > > Tom
      > > > > >
      > > > > >
      > > > > >
      > > > > > --- Gregory <greggolopry@c...> wrote:
      > > > > >
      > > > > >
      > > > > > ---------------------------------
      > > > > > Pat Robertson must be so proud! Seriously,
      I
      > > have
      > > > > > been offended this
      > > > > > week by some of the comments from Barbara
      > Bush,
      > > > and
      > > > > > folks like
      > > > > > the "good" Congressman cited here. The
      right
      > > wing
      > > > > > talks up the moral
      > > > > > high ground they pretend to walk, but when
      the
      > > > chips
      > > > > > are down America
      > > > > > views them for what they are.
      > > > > >
      > > > > > Gregory
      > > > > >
      > > > > >
      > > > > > --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, "Ram
      > > Lau"
      > > > > > <ramlau@y...> wrote:
      > > > > > > Well, the conservative God got rid of
      > > thousands
      > > > of
      > > > > > those liberal
      > > > > > > Yankees 4 years ago and now the
      conservative
      > > God
      > > > > > destoryed a gay
      > > > > > town
      > > > > > > full of Black and poor people. They must
      be
      > > > > elated.
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > > Ram
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > >
      > > > > > > --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com,
      > THOMAS
      > > > > > JOHNSON
      > > > > > <AVRCRDNG@F...>
      > > > > > > wrote:
      > > > > > > > A quote from Rep. Richard Baker (R,La)
      as
      > > > > reported
      > > > > > by
      > > > > > > > the Wall Street Journal a few days ago:
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > The Wall Street Journal wrote that
      > Baker
      > > > was
      > > > > > > > overheard telling lobbyists: "We finally
      > > > cleaned
      > > > > > up
      > > > > > > > public housing in New Orleans. We
      couldn't
      > > do
      > > > > it,
      > > > > > but
      > > > > > > > God did."
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > --- Greg Cannon <gregcannon1@y...>
      wrote:
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > ---------------------------------
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > >
      > > >
      > http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-
      > > > > > 5270707,00.html
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Katrina Exodus Could Shakeup Political
      Mix
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Sunday September 11, 2005 6:01 PM
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > By NANCY BENAC
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Associated Press Writer
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > WASHINGTON (AP) - Population shifts
      caused
      > > by
      > > > > the
      > > > > > > > exodus of hurricane victims from the
      Gulf
      > > > Coast
      > > > > > could
      > > > > > > > have ripple effects for years to come in
      > > > > Louisiana
      > > > > > > > political races and perhaps beyond.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > How big depends on how many people stay
      > > away,
      > > > > > which
      > > > > > > > ones stay away and where they end up
      > putting
      > > > > down
      > > > > > > > roots.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > The early thinking is that the evacuees
      > > least
      > > > > > likely
      > > > > > > > to return to their homes in Louisiana
      may
      > be
      > > > the
      > > > > > > > poorest - and thus, Democrats for the
      most
      > > > part.
      > > > > > That
      > > > > > > > would hurt the party in a state where
      > > > > Republicans
      > > > > > > > already were making inroads.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > If the lion's share of those leaving
      > settle
      > > in
      > > > > > Texas,
      > > > > > > > that could work to the advantage of
      > > Democrats
      > > > in
      > > > > > > > President Bush's home state.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > ``I'm believing that the greatest
      > > displacement
      > > > > > occurs
      > > > > > > > among those who are traditionally
      > Democratic
      > > > > > voters,''
      > > > > > > > said Elliott Stonecipher, an independent
      > > > > political
      > > > > > > > consultant from Shreveport, La.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > ``Based on sheer demographics, those who
      > are
      > > > > > > > Republican voters have the wherewithal
      > and,
      > > we
      > > > > > > > believe, the will to go home and
      > rebuild,''
      > > he
      > > > > > said.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Stonecipher sees the New Orleans area
      > losing
      > > > > > > > Democratic voters and a political
      network
      > > that
      > > > > was
      > > > > > of
      > > > > > > > great benefit to Sen. Mary Landrieu and
      > > other
      > > > > > > > Democrats.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > ``On Election Day there is a well-oiled
      > > > machine
      > > > > > that
      > > > > > > > knows how to turn those votes out from
      > > > specific
      > > > > > > > neighborhoods and in specific ways,''
      > > > > Stonecipher
      > > > > > > > said.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Landrieu was elected in a 2002 runoff by
      a
      > > > 52-48
      > > > > > > > margin, a difference of just 42,000
      votes.
      > > New
      > > > > > Orleans
      > > > > > > > was the base of her support.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > ``If that's compromised, that could be a
      > > > problem
      > > > > > for
      > > > > > > > her,'' said John Maginnis, who publishes
      a
      > > > > > political
      > > > > > > > newsletter in Louisiana.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Landrieu is not up for re-election until
      > > 2008.
      > > > > > > > Kathleen Blanco, the Democratic
      governor,
      > > who
      > > > > also
      > > > > > won
      > > > > > > > by a 52-48 margin, faces re-election in
      > > 2007.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Ray Nagin, the Democratic mayor of New
      > > > Orleans,
      > > > > is
      > > > > > up
      > > > > > > > for re-election in February. No one
      knows
      > if
      > > > the
      > > > > > city
      > > > > > > > could even hold an election by then.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Overall, said Maginnis, Republicans have
      > > made
      > > > > > gains in
      > > > > > > > Louisiana in recent years and ``the
      > effects
      > > of
      > > > > the
      > > > > > > > storm aftermath probably will help
      them.''
      > > > > > President
      > > > > > > > Bush carried the state in 2000 and 2004;
      > > > > Democrat
      > > > > > Bill
      > > > > > > > Clinton did so in the previous two
      > > > presidential
      > > > > > > > elections.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Still, demographic shifts within the
      state
      > > > could
      > > > > > work
      > > > > > > > to the Democrats' advantage in some
      cases,
      > > > > > Maginnis
      > > > > > > > said.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > For example, if the sizable evacuee
      > > population
      > > > > now
      > > > > > in
      > > > > > > > Baton Rouge, the capital, decides to
      > settle
      > > > in,
      > > > > > that
      > > > > > > > could make the 6th Congressional
      District,
      > a
      > > > > > > > politically competitive one now held by
      > GOP
      > > > Rep.
      > > > > > > > Richard Baker, more Democratic.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > In Texas, which stands to gain the
      largest
      > > > > number
      > > > > > of
      > > > > > > > evacuees, analysts do not expect much
      > impact
      > > > on
      > > > > > > > statewide races. But local races - for
      > > > > everything
      > > > > > from
      > > > > > > > school boards to legislative seats and
      > > perhaps
      > > > > > even
      > > > > > > > congressional districts - could be
      > affected.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > The place to watch is Houston, which has
      > > taken
      > > > > in
      > > > > > the
      > > > > > > > most evacuees, at least temporarily.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Richard Murray, director of the Center
      for
      > > > > Public
      > > > > > > > Policy at the University of Houston,
      said
      > > > > > Republicans
      > > > > > > > hold every elective office in Harris
      > County,
      > > > > which
      > > > > > > > takes in most of Houston, but do not win
      > by
      > > > > much.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > ``This could accelerate the tipping of
      the
      > > > > county,
      > > > > > > > which was expected to happen in the next
      > > four
      > > > to
      > > > > > six
      > > > > > > > years,'' he said.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > While politics is taking a back seat for
      > now
      > > > to
      > > > > > the
      > > > > > > > urgent needs of the hurricane victims,
      > ``my
      > > > > > Democratic
      > > > > > > > friends are smiling,'' Murray said.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > Bob Stein, professor of political
      science
      > at
      > > > > Rice
      > > > > > > > University in Houston, said the
      political
      > > > impact
      > > > > > on
      > > > > > > > Texas depends in large part on how
      > > > concentrated
      > > > > or
      > > > > > > > widely dispersed the evacuees are.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > He noted that sprawling Houston is one
      of
      > > the
      > > > > > nation's
      > > > > > > > least segregated big cities because it
      has
      > > no
      > > > > > zoning
      > > > > > > > laws, so hurricane victims could well be
      > > > broadly
      > > > > > > > scattered, diluting their impact in any
      > > > > particular
      > > > > > > > race.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > In any event, though, with Texas'
      Hispanic
      > > > > > population
      > > > > > > > surging and its black population growing
      > > > faster
      > > > > > than
      > > > > > > > the white population, demographic shifts
      > > > already
      > > > > > are
      > > > > > > > pushing the state toward the Democrats.
      > > > Katrina
      > > > > > could
      > > > > > > > help hasten the trend.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > ``Our politics may be Republican,''
      Stein
      > > > said,
      > > > > > ``but
      > > > > > > > that's just a temporary condition.''
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > The thought is echoed by David Bositis,
      a
      > > > senior
      > > > > > > > political analyst at the Joint Center
      for
      > > > > > Political
      > > > > > > > and Economic Studies, a think tank
      focused
      > > on
      > > > > > black
      > > > > > > > issues. He said adding a substantial
      > number
      > > of
      > > > > > blacks
      > > > > > > > to the state could ``potentially make
      > Texas
      > > > more
      > > > > > > > competitive in the not-too-distant
      > future.''
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > > As for Louisiana, Bositis said, ``If
      > > > > > proportionally
      > > > > > > > more whites come back than blacks, it'll
      > > make
      > > > > > > > Louisiana somewhat whiter, which would
      > > > statewide
      > > > > > be to
      > > > > > > > the advantage of the Republicans.'' But
      > he,
      > > > like
      > > > > > other
      > > > > > > > political analysts, said it will take
      time
      > > to
      > > > > see
      > > > > > > > where evacuees end up settling and how
      > many
      > > > > > ultimately
      > > > > > > > return home.
      > > > > > > >
      > > > > > > >
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