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Senate predictions

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  • Jesse Gordon
    *** My predictions in the 5 contested Senate races in states that currently have Republican incumbents. 1) AK - Knowles (D) beats Murkowski (R, weakest
    Message 1 of 4 , Aug 3, 2004
      *** My predictions in the 5 contested Senate races in states that
      currently have Republican incumbents.

      1) AK - Knowles (D) beats Murkowski (R, weakest incumbent in the
      Senate)

      2) IL open seat - Obama (D) beats Keyes (R) or someone else

      3) OK open seat - Carson (D) beats Coburn (R)

      4) CO open seat - primary Aug 10 - Salazar (D) beats Coors (R)

      5) OH - I would have predicted that Kucinich (D) could beat incumbent
      Voinovich (R) but he didn't run and Fingerhut (D) is going nowhere.

      So that's four seats gained for the Dems.

      *** My predictions in the 6 contested Senate races in states that
      currently have Democratic incumbents.

      1) FL open seat - primary Aug 31 - Martinez (R) beats Deutsch (D) - I
      think the Hispanic vote will go Dem for Pres and GOP for Senate.

      2) GA open seat - Isakson (R) beats Majette (D) - because incumbent
      Zell Miller (D) is stumping for Bush (R).

      3) LA open seat - Vitter (R) beats John (D) - because incumbent
      Breaux (D) was pretty much a Republican anyway.

      4) NC open seat - Bowles (D) beats Burr (R) - Edwards' coattails will
      squeak Bowles in despite the GOP majority in NC.

      5) SC open seat - Tenenbaum (D) beats DeMint (R) - because Tenenbaum
      is one of the Dem darlings nationwide.

      6) SD - incumbent Daschle (D) beats Thune (R) - evidence is Stephanie
      Herseth.

      So that's three seats gained for the GOP.

      *** Assuming all other incumbents hold onto their seats (which I
      think they will), that means a one-seat majority for the Dems post-
      election. That's my prediction.

      I could see Tenenbaum, Salazar, or Carson losing,
      however, which means it's up for grabs. If all three lose, that's a
      2-seat GOP majority post-election. I also could see Majette and
      Deutsch winning, and if Kerry tromps Bush, that'd happen and we'd end
      up with a 3-seat Dem majority in the Senate.
    • greg
      I have no reason to doubt your predictions, but on what evidence are they based? Gut feeling is sufficient of course. Greg
      Message 2 of 4 , Aug 3, 2004
        I have no reason to doubt your predictions, but on what evidence are
        they based? Gut feeling is sufficient of course.
        Greg
        --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, "Jesse Gordon" <jesse@j...> wrote:
        > *** My predictions in the 5 contested Senate races in states that
        > currently have Republican incumbents.
        >
        > 1) AK - Knowles (D) beats Murkowski (R, weakest incumbent in the
        > Senate)
        >
        > 2) IL open seat - Obama (D) beats Keyes (R) or someone else
        >
        > 3) OK open seat - Carson (D) beats Coburn (R)
        >
        > 4) CO open seat - primary Aug 10 - Salazar (D) beats Coors (R)
        >
        > 5) OH - I would have predicted that Kucinich (D) could beat incumbent
        > Voinovich (R) but he didn't run and Fingerhut (D) is going nowhere.
        >
        > So that's four seats gained for the Dems.
        >
        > *** My predictions in the 6 contested Senate races in states that
        > currently have Democratic incumbents.
        >
        > 1) FL open seat - primary Aug 31 - Martinez (R) beats Deutsch (D) - I
        > think the Hispanic vote will go Dem for Pres and GOP for Senate.
        >
        > 2) GA open seat - Isakson (R) beats Majette (D) - because incumbent
        > Zell Miller (D) is stumping for Bush (R).
        >
        > 3) LA open seat - Vitter (R) beats John (D) - because incumbent
        > Breaux (D) was pretty much a Republican anyway.
        >
        > 4) NC open seat - Bowles (D) beats Burr (R) - Edwards' coattails will
        > squeak Bowles in despite the GOP majority in NC.
        >
        > 5) SC open seat - Tenenbaum (D) beats DeMint (R) - because Tenenbaum
        > is one of the Dem darlings nationwide.
        >
        > 6) SD - incumbent Daschle (D) beats Thune (R) - evidence is Stephanie
        > Herseth.
        >
        > So that's three seats gained for the GOP.
        >
        > *** Assuming all other incumbents hold onto their seats (which I
        > think they will), that means a one-seat majority for the Dems post-
        > election. That's my prediction.
        >
        > I could see Tenenbaum, Salazar, or Carson losing,
        > however, which means it's up for grabs. If all three lose, that's a
        > 2-seat GOP majority post-election. I also could see Majette and
        > Deutsch winning, and if Kerry tromps Bush, that'd happen and we'd end
        > up with a 3-seat Dem majority in the Senate.
      • Ram Lau
        I think it was just a guess. What do you think anyway, Greg? And other folks please stop lurking and post a couple of messages, please! Ram
        Message 3 of 4 , Aug 4, 2004
          I think it was just a guess. What do you think anyway, Greg?

          And other folks please stop lurking and post a couple of messages,
          please!

          Ram
        • greg
          I can t really say. I haven t been paying much attention to senate races this year. There s not one in my state so I guess they seem less interesting. There do
          Message 4 of 4 , Aug 4, 2004
            I can't really say. I haven't been paying much attention to senate
            races this year. There's not one in my state so I guess they seem less
            interesting. There do seem to be several interesting candidates, like
            Barack Obama and Peter Coors.

            I do occasionaly give some thought to the senate and governor races in
            2006 in Texas (my state). Other than the incumbent governor,
            Republican Rick Perry, the only declared candidate is Kinky Friedman
            (http://www.kinkyfriedman.com). Unless the Democrats or Greens come up
            with someone really spectaculor I'll vote for Kinky because I like his
            music. Silly of me, but I still may do it. As far as I know there's
            also no declared candidates for Senate (I suppose Kay Bailey Hutchison
            will run again, she hasn't said anything about it that I know of). But
            a couple days ago a friend forwarded me this website
            http://texansforchangeinleadership.blogspot.com/ which doesn't have
            much on it but appears to be someone's campaign website that has yet
            to be constructed. So I'll be checking back there sometimes to see.

            But of course what the Texas Democratis really need to do is retake
            the state legislature. The legislature has much more power than the
            governor. Then they could undo the gerrymandering that was recently
            rammed through in Austin to give the Texas Republicans more seats in
            Washington (and undoubtedly the Texas Democrats would do similar
            gerrymandering in their favor, and I'm certainly opposed to any
            gerrmandering).
            --- In prezveepsenator@yahoogroups.com, "Ram Lau" <ramlau@y...> wrote:
            > I think it was just a guess. What do you think anyway, Greg?
            >
            > And other folks please stop lurking and post a couple of messages,
            > please!
            >
            > Ram
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