Big incumbent loss blowouts (Re: Political Birthdays July 8th)
- Kenneth Black <governorblack@y...> wrote:
> Ah, yes, the 1972. That was, surprisingly, an easy one for me toIt's funny, that's the edition I don't have in my collection (I've
> get. I too find it interesting to look back and see where Barone
> was dead on the money and where he totally missed some. A
> possible inclusion to that list of missed calls, in the 2004
> edition, no mention is made of Melissa Bean, who held Rep. Phil
> Crane to 57% (one of his lowest) in the 2002 race. You'd think a
> 30 some odd year US Rep held to a 14 point win would merit the
> challenger some mention. Granted this might not matter to me now
> if Bean had not been successful in 2004, 52%-48%.
been referencing it at the library). Sometimes, there are races
where he doesn't dwell on them too much (one of the things I dislike
in the books is that they don't list primary data info for both
parties, only the winning party primary). It's not been terribly
unusual, however, for some members of the leadership in both parties
to have at some point hit below the 57% mark, but it seems up to
Barone as to whether it indicates a particular weakness or just
an "off" year.
There's been some disagreement recently on Free Republic whether or
not it seemed abundently clear that Bean was going to defeat Crane
or whether Crane would eke out a narrow and unimpressive victory.
One guy who claims to be an "insider" said he believed Crane was
toast, but I was more in the second camp. We both agreed, however,
that Crane's declining reelect numbers should've seen him retire
last year. One of the "favorites" for the GOP side in the last cycle
was the surprise upset of Baron Hill in Indiana. That had been a
frustrating one going back to 1964 when Lee Hamilton first won the
seat from a GOP incumbent, and had had many close calls, especially
in the '90s. Hill had been used to winning by narrow margins, but a
win is a win. A lot of us didn't bother to see that his challenger,
Mike Sodrel, would finally put it in the GOP column after 32 years.
Unlike with Phil Crane, who will obviously not be seeking a rematch
with Ms. Bean, Hill seems quite anxious to reclaim his seat. If
Sodrel can hold him off, it will probably remain in the GOP column
until a vacancy occurs, but if Hill takes it back by a narrow
margin, this could become the new "Bloody Eighth" for Indiana.
> I must say, I'm tickled that one of my very few posts has led toHeh, anything to liven up the joint. ;-)
> such a discussion.
P.S. I thought it might prove interesting at some point to go over
Barone's almanacs and look at them race by race to determine what
his % accuracy for the contests are. Albeit with thousands of
contests and predictions in 34+ years, that might prove time-
- Today is Sunday, July 8, 2007. There are five political birthdays
today. They are as follows:
John David Dingell, Jr. (D-MI) is 81. [Trivia below]
U.S. House 1955 to Present
Dean of the U.S. House 1995 to Present
Wayne Co., MI, Assistant Prosecuting Attorney 1954 to 1955
First elected to U.S. House in a special election to fill the
vacancy caused by the death of his father, U.S. Rep. John David
Edward Daniel DiPrete (R-RI) is 73. (*)
Governor of Rhode Island 1985 to 1991
Mayor of Cranston, RI, 1979 to 1985
Cranston, RI, City Council 1975 to 1979
Cranston, RI, School Committee 1971 to 1975
Pleaded guilty in 1998 to bribery, extortion, and raceteering for
accepting $250,000 in exchange for state contracts, and sentenced to
one year in prison.
Unsuccessful candidate for re-election as Governor 1990
Julia May Carson (D-IN) is 69.
U.S. House 1997 to Present
Indianapolis, IN, Township Trustee 1990 to 1996
IN State Senate 1976 to 1990
IN House 1972 to 1976
Gerald L. Baliles (D-VA) is 67. (*)
Governor of Virginia 1986 to 1990
Attorney General of Virginia 1982 to 1986
VA House 1976 to 1982
William Philip Gramm (D/R-TX) is 65. (*)
U.S. Senate 1985 to 2002
U.S. House 1979 to 1985
Unsuccessful candidate for U.S. Senate 1976
Unsuccessful candidate for Republican presidential nomination 1996
TRIVIA: Rep. John Dingell, Jr. has served in the U.S. House longer
than the combined tenure of 121 of his most junior colleagues.
(*) indicates additional information not contained in TPG listing.