Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.

Re: [political-graveyard] Michigan & TN musings...

Expand Messages
  • Lawrence Kestenbaum
    ... To be fair to the pollsters, it s very tough to poll for primaries when you have no real idea in advance who s going to show up and vote. ... One pollster
    Message 1 of 9 , Aug 7, 2002
    • 0 Attachment
      On Wed, 7 Aug 2002, fieldmarshaldj wrote:

      > I predicted (on a good night) that Dingell would win by 10 (55-45%),
      > and on a bad one, by 2 (51-49), but was that final figure correct,
      > about a 18-19% win ?! Somebody really messed up on those pre-election
      > polling figures !

      To be fair to the pollsters, it's very tough to poll for primaries when
      you have no real idea in advance who's going to show up and vote.

      > Apparently in the Gov's race, Bonior did better
      > than I expected (I was genuinely surprised to see him leapfrog past
      > Blanchard (whom I initially thought would take the nomination based
      > on qualifications alone), if those final returns hold up).

      One pollster told me that "the flakier the poll, the better Blanchard
      did." Polls based on random-digit dialing showed him with over 50% early
      on, whereas polls of people who were known to have histories of voting in
      primaries showed him with much less. In other words, Blanchard's biggest
      strength was name-ID. This is consistent with my observation that many
      Democratic activists (who of course are hugely overrepresented among
      primary voters) still blame Blanchard for blowing the 1990 race.

      A friend of mine who is close to the Granholm campaign told me weeks
      before the primary that Granholm advisors expected Bonior to finish second
      and Blanchard third. They were right.

      > P.S. The Polygon blog-page seems to be down, I've been getting a "not
      > authorized to view this page" since very early this morning.

      Yeah, I have discontinued it.

      Larry

      ---
      Lawrence Kestenbaum, polygon@...
      Washtenaw County Commissioner, 4th District
      The Political Graveyard, http://politicalgraveyard.com
      Mailing address: P.O. Box 2563, Ann Arbor MI 48106
    • fieldmarshaldj
      ... True, although I would think a poll of those stating they are likely voters would at least give you some indication of where the race is. That practically
      Message 2 of 9 , Aug 7, 2002
      • 0 Attachment
        Lawrence Kestenbaum wrote:

        > To be fair to the pollsters, it's very tough to poll for primaries
        > when you have no real idea in advance who's going to show up and
        > vote.

        True, although I would think a poll of those stating they are likely
        voters would at least give you some indication of where the race is.
        That practically 20% blowout no one was expecting, and I'm sure there
        are a lot of angry people in the Rivers camp over some of that
        polling data indicating they had a very good chance of upset (no
        doubt some of those groups that donated to her (Emily's List, for
        example), had they known it would end up this far apart, would've
        rather spent the money on closer, more winnable races -- of course,
        the same groups that gave to Rivers gave to Gayle Ray down here, and
        there were a lot of shocked folks down here after those election
        returns). LNR would probably do well to bide her time, try to
        maintain a high profile, and when the Dingell seat becomes vacant
        (presumably within the next decade), take a run at it then (although,
        as we all know, just 6 months in politics (let alone 10 years) is a
        lifetime, and folks can be forgotten -- by that time, there might be
        some up and comers from Ann Arbor who might not stand aside for her
        and may wish to take on Debbie Dingell (presuming she will inherit
        the seat as you say) themself).

        > > Apparently in the Gov's race, Bonior did better
        > > than I expected (I was genuinely surprised to see him leapfrog
        > > past Blanchard (whom I initially thought would take the
        > > nomination based
        > > on qualifications alone), if those final returns hold up).
        >
        > One pollster told me that "the flakier the poll, the better
        > Blanchard did." Polls based on random-digit dialing showed him
        > with over 50% early on, whereas polls of people who were known to
        > have histories of voting in primaries showed him with much less.
        > In other words, Blanchard's biggest strength was name-ID. This is
        > consistent with my observation that many Democratic activists (who
        > of course are hugely overrepresented among primary voters) still
        > blame Blanchard for blowing the 1990 race.

        I imagine had the race been held about the time of the CA primary,
        Blanchard would've likely walked away with it.

        > A friend of mine who is close to the Granholm campaign told me weeks
        > before the primary that Granholm advisors expected Bonior to finish
        > second and Blanchard third. They were right.

        From some other sources, I heard Bonior seemed to be gaining on
        Granholm and that she was losing some momentum in the past month. Do
        you think he could've overtaken her if the primary had been held in
        September ?

        > > P.S. The Polygon blog-page seems to be down, I've been getting
        > > a "not authorized to view this page" since very early this
        > > morning.
        >
        > Yeah, I have discontinued it.

        Oh, no... I'm sorry to hear that. It was interesting reading your
        articles !

        Regards,
        --D.J. Jones
      • Gary Krause
        ... Gee, did we have a primary? Oh, yeah - five months ago - and the election is another three months away..... As you say, 6 months can be a lifetime in
        Message 3 of 9 , Aug 7, 2002
        • 0 Attachment
          --- fieldmarshaldj <gr.jones@...> wrote:
          >
          > I imagine had the race been held about the time of
          > the CA primary,
          > Blanchard would've likely walked away with it.

          Gee, did we have a primary? Oh, yeah - five months ago
          - and the election is another three months away.....
          As you say, 6 months can be a lifetime in politics,
          and yet we have EIGHT months between the primary and
          the general election here. As you can guess, a lot of
          people are talking about moving it again. Maybe the
          best idea would be moving it to September, as it was
          several decades ago. Of course, that only leaves 2
          months to campaign in a state of 35 million people,
          but most of the campaigning is through TV anyway.
          (Unfortunately, this would also tend to benefit the
          flashiest "name" candidates, who can raise money the
          fastest.) Regardless, I'm sure they'll be tinkering
          with it again.

          > > > P.S. The Polygon blog-page seems to be down,
          > >
          > > Yeah, I have discontinued it.

          I also enjoyed many of the articles, although the
          local slant of much of it was not in my field of
          interest. I suppose Larry just decided it wasn't
          feasible to do both that AND the Graveyard, what with
          all the demands on his time (understandable). And then
          there's always the sense you need to write SOMETHING
          every day. Oh well, we DID enjoy it while it lasted.

          Gary Krause

          __________________________________________________
          Do You Yahoo!?
          Yahoo! Health - Feel better, live better
          http://health.yahoo.com
        • fieldmarshaldj
          Gary Krause wrote: =CA primary= ... Do you remember a fella named Dick Riordan ? Something about being the next Governor ? I hear he s now driving a cab in
          Message 4 of 9 , Aug 7, 2002
          • 0 Attachment
            Gary Krause wrote:

            =CA primary=

            > Gee, did we have a primary? Oh, yeah - five months ago
            > - and the election is another three months away.....
            > As you say, 6 months can be a lifetime in politics,

            Do you remember a fella named Dick Riordan ? Something about being
            the next Governor ? I hear he's now driving a cab in January River,
            Brazil... :-)

            > and yet we have EIGHT months between the primary and
            > the general election here. As you can guess, a lot of
            > people are talking about moving it again. Maybe the
            > best idea would be moving it to September, as it was
            > several decades ago. Of course, that only leaves 2
            > months to campaign in a state of 35 million people,
            > but most of the campaigning is through TV anyway.

            March is absurdly early, and one has to practically declare the day
            of the previous general election. I think September is far too late,
            but I think July would be a good compromise date.

            > (Unfortunately, this would also tend to benefit the
            > flashiest "name" candidates, who can raise money the
            > fastest.)

            Well... that doesn't always work. Al Checchi and Jane Harman in '98
            (and Ron Unz and Darrell Issa) had the big bucks, but that didn't
            help them win the "big" primaries.

            > Regardless, I'm sure they'll be tinkering with it again.

            They need to.

            > > > > P.S. The Polygon blog-page seems to be down,
            > > >
            > > > Yeah, I have discontinued it.
            >
            > I also enjoyed many of the articles, although the
            > local slant of much of it was not in my field of
            > interest.

            I enjoy reading a bit about parochial politics, as it enriches one's
            knowledge of other parts of the country. It enables me to be able to
            discuss practically any state's politics ! :-)

            > I suppose Larry just decided it wasn't feasible to do both that AND
            > the Graveyard, what with all the demands on his time
            > (understandable).

            Yup.

            > And then there's always the sense you need to write SOMETHING
            > every day. Oh well, we DID enjoy it while it lasted.

            Indeed.

            One thing, though, that I would be interested in hearing more about
            from Larry is his love of architecture and progressive city planning,
            and I hope he would write more on those subjects if he doesn't about
            local MI politics. :-)

            Regards,
            --D.J. Jones
          • NickBII
            ... primary, ... In retrospect it makes sense that Blanchard would get blown out. I did believe the polls, before the elections, tho. During His time as
            Message 5 of 9 , Aug 18, 2002
            • 0 Attachment
              --- In political-graveyard@y..., "fieldmarshaldj" <gr.jones@c...>
              wrote:

              > I imagine had the race been held about the time of the CA
              primary,
              > Blanchard would've likely walked away with it.

              In retrospect it makes sense that Blanchard would get blown
              out. I did believe the polls, before the elections, tho. During His
              time as Governer he pissed almost every Democratic interest
              group off, and he lost the few friends he had by moving off to
              God-knows-where for 12 years. The people who really care
              about the Party were not at all happy with Jim Blanchard, and
              they are the ones who actually vote in primarys.

              Here's a short list of the Blanchard Baggage:

              First, he was a bad Governor for Detroit -- he let personality
              conflicts with Coleman get in the way of helping his main
              constituency. Note that this alienated him from two key elements
              in any Democrat's base: the left and blacks.

              Second, he screwed up the Worker's Compensation system,
              which is what workers who were injured on the job use legally.
              The Trial Lawyers still haven't forgiven him.

              Third, he dropped his Lt. Governor in 1990. This particular Lt.
              Gov. had written the food stamp act; and sheperded it through
              Congress. She was nationally known among feminists.
              Needless to say this did not endear him to women or Leftist
              types. It didn't help that at the time he was divorcing his wife and
              shacking up with a staffer -- it seemed like he dropped her for
              taking his wife's side.

              Fourth he lost to Engler. This bears repeating:
              He lost to Engler. A man who is hated by many Michigan
              Democrats. Literaly hated. Remember John McCain won this
              state, not because MI's GOP wanted him to; but because
              Michigan's Dems wanted make Engler look like a chump. We
              have a better chance of humiliating Engler with someone who
              adtually won her last state-wide race.

              Fifth, after losing to Engler he dissapeared. Michigan's
              Democrats are fighting a losing battle to stop Engler, and their
              leader dissapears for 12 years. The man is not a political
              genuis.

              He managed to overcome the bad relationship with Coleman
              Young before the election when 2/3 of the Detriot City Council
              endorsed him; he also campaigned extensively in thje City. The
              Trial Lawyer's wouldn't have voted for him for a $Trillion, and the
              Far Left was not satisfied.

              If the Primary was in late September, then he would have time to
              try to patch up all the relationships his mad political skills
              destroyed in 1990; an early primary hurts him because he'd have
              less time to do all the many things he needed to do.

              It would have been smart to have won a State Senate seat in '98.
              Then he'd have had a time to mend fences, and a record of
              fighting John Engler.
              When you lose at one level in politics its usually a bad idea to try
              to come back at that level, you come back at one level below (like
              Nixon did), and use that level to fix whatever problems lost you
              higher office. Then you still have great name recognition so
              you're in a good position to get the Presidency, Governorship, or
              whatever.

              > From some other sources, I heard Bonior seemed to be
              gaining on
              > Granholm and that she was losing some momentum in the
              past month. Do
              > you think he could've overtaken her if the primary had been
              held in
              > September ?

              There's scuttlebutt that Blanchard killed Bonior's chances by
              splitting the anti-party leadership vote (Granholm had just about
              every endorsement really early on, she was basically crowned by
              the Party Leadership same as Bush/Gore were).
              Other then that I'd have to say yes; Bonior would have had a bit of
              a better chance if the Primary was held later. He'd have had
              more time to campaign, and campaigning is something David
              Bonior is great at.
              I doubt it would have helped much, tho. After 12 years of losing
              everything Michigan's Democrats just want to win. A moderate,
              photogenic, popular, woman is a lot more electable then Bonior.

              Nick
            • fieldmarshaldj
              Thanks for the insight on Gov. Blanchard and MI politics, it does clear up my understanding for why Blanchard fared so poorly. Regards, --D.J. Jones
              Message 6 of 9 , Aug 19, 2002
              • 0 Attachment
                Thanks for the insight on Gov. Blanchard and MI politics, it does
                clear up my understanding for why Blanchard fared so poorly.

                Regards,
                --D.J. Jones
              Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.