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Re: [podcasters] Re: Pew report on podcasting

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  • Bill Kearney
    ... Well, considering the amount of effort it takes to learn to use players that have this ability their stats might not be far off. ... Is this where we
    Message 1 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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      > Don't forget that "downloaded a radio program from the internet" could
      > very well be interpreted as downloading an NPR program (or other
      > program) from Audible. They've been offering a number of radio shows
      > as downloadable files for quite a while - and have partnered with a
      > number of online vendors to sell MP3 players - like iPods - so that
      > people can do just that. If that's a portion of the data in that
      > survey - then it's definitely skewed.

      Well, considering the amount of effort it takes to learn to use players that
      have this ability their stats might not be far off.

      > I personally have a hard time
      > believing 29% of people who own MP3 players have actually used a
      > podcatcher and downloaded an actual "podcast."

      Is this where we divert into the same sort of arguments about what is or
      isn't a weblog? I mean, don't get me wrong but what's the point of arguing
      it? If groups like Pew are noticing it how is this a problem? Sure, some
      stuff isn't 'designed' to be a podcast and other stuff is merely a recording
      of something broadcast or streamed in other formats. But if it's
      extractable for offline use AND people are taking the effort to do so then
      that sure seems like a good thing.

      > Especially considering
      > that the podcasts with the largest listenership - like Adam Curry's
      > Daily Source Code - are only up in the 80K range of steady subscribers.

      That might say more about the appeal of the content then the aptitude of the
      listeners. As in, they may well not like what people that consider
      themselves 'in the know about podcasting' prefer.
    • Sam Curtis Coutin
      ... Without any inside information, I think the answer is yes . Warner is leading the Hollywood podpush with many more to follow no doubt. As mentioned
      Message 2 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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        >
        > Did Warner Bros. pay any money to get this done?


        Without any inside information, I think the answer is 'yes'. Warner is
        leading the Hollywood podpush with many more to follow no doubt.
        As mentioned previously, they started sponsoring the Eric Rice Show two
        weeks ago.
        http://www.clickz.com/news/article.php/3491781
        Sam
        www.mysportsradio.com <http://www.mysportsradio.com>


        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
      • Julian Doncaster (Yahoo1)
        From: Bill KearneyEspecially considering that the podcasts with the largest listenership - like Adam Curry s Daily Source
        Message 3 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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          From: "Bill Kearney" <wkearney99@...>

          > Especially considering
          > that the podcasts with the largest listenership - like Adam Curry's
          > Daily Source Code - are only up in the 80K range of steady subscribers.

          Where does this figure come from?

          Julian
        • Craig Patchett
          ... Take a look at the blog entry I wrote on it at http://www.btscast.com ... basically this survey is a textbook example of bad statistics. Craig
          Message 4 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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            --- In podcasters@yahoogroups.com, "Julian Doncaster \(Yahoo1\)"

            > Where does this figure come from?

            Take a look at the blog entry I wrote on it at http://www.btscast.com
            ... basically this survey is a textbook example of bad statistics.

            Craig

            *******************

            Craig Patchett
            The GodCast Network

            "Behind the Scenes", the podcast for podcasters: http://www.btscast.com
          • Rob Usdin
            ... Adam mentioned on a show that he can tell how many subscribers a show has through the iPodder infrstrusture or some such and mentioned 80K as a figure.
            Message 5 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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              I wrote:

              > Especially considering
              > that the podcasts with the largest listenership - like Adam Curry's
              > Daily Source Code - are only up in the 80K range of steady
              > subscribers.

              Then Julian wrote:
              >>Where does this figure come from?<<<

              Adam mentioned on a show that he can tell how many subscribers a show
              has through the iPodder infrstrusture or some such and mentioned 80K as
              a figure. I'm generalizing here....

              --*Rob
            • elle_webb
              ... Craig Is it a textbook case of bad statistics, or a textbook case of media hype? Pew says that 6 million MP3 player users have tried podcasts, which it
              Message 6 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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                --- In podcasters@yahoogroups.com, "Craig Patchett" <craig@g...> wrote:
                >
                > --- In podcasters@yahoogroups.com, "Julian Doncaster \(Yahoo1\)"
                >
                > > Where does this figure come from?
                >
                > Take a look at the blog entry I wrote on it at http://www.btscast.com
                > ... basically this survey is a textbook example of bad statistics.
                >
                > Craig


                Craig

                Is it a textbook case of bad statistics, or a textbook case of media hype?

                Pew says that 6 million MP3 player users have tried podcasts, which it
                appears to be considering any downloadable audio program. I'm
                surprised that the numbers aren't even higher on this. (By the way - I
                don't agree with what Pew is lumping in as a podcast.)

                Most coverage seems to be interpreting this like you are, that Pew is
                saying that 6 million people listening to podcasts. I don't see any
                place, though, that they are saying that these 6 million people are
                subscribing to podcasts or are regularly listening to podcasts.
                They're saying that 6 million people have dipped their toes in the
                water, which seems reasonable.

                Your guestimate of the regular podcast audience (300,000) seems
                realistic, but I don't see where this conflicts with Pew's numbers.


                The "cup is half full" view says that the hype, though inaccurate, may
                be self-fulfilling.
              • Geek News
                With Adam still using the MAC account I have no idea how he came up with that number. We have people in Techpodcasts.com that are using the mac accounts and
                Message 7 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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                  With Adam still using the MAC account I have no idea how he came up with
                  that number. We have people in Techpodcasts.com that are using the mac
                  accounts and are having a very hard time getting any types of stats.

                  Expect a comment from techpodcasts.com later in the week that will give some
                  small insight on how we are going to giving accurate stat counts to
                  perspective advertisers and the community at large. We think that we can get
                  very close within several percentage points what our actual numbers are as a
                  group. Personally I don't care if the number is 1 or 10 long as I know what
                  that number is, and so long as we are able to verify that number. But the
                  true challenge is to figure out how many are actually listening and that can
                  be a tough nut to track but we are working on it.

                  Talk is cheap stats backed up by log files is king.

                  Todd..


                  > Then Julian wrote:
                  > >>Where does this figure come from?<<<
                  >
                  > Adam mentioned on a show that he can tell how many
                  > subscribers a show has through the iPodder infrstrusture or
                  > some such and mentioned 80K as a figure. I'm generalizing here....
                  >
                  > --*Rob
                  >
                • Craig Patchett
                  ... hype? ... First, I think they way they have presented the result is exceptionally misleading. The copy on their home page says: More than 6 million
                  Message 8 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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                    --- In podcasters@yahoogroups.com, "elle_webb" <elle_webb@y...> wrote:

                    > Is it a textbook case of bad statistics, or a textbook case of media
                    hype?
                    >
                    > Pew says that 6 million MP3 player users have tried podcasts, which it
                    > appears to be considering any downloadable audio program. I'm
                    > surprised that the numbers aren't even higher on this. (By the way - I
                    > don't agree with what Pew is lumping in as a podcast.)
                    >
                    > Most coverage seems to be interpreting this like you are, that Pew is
                    > saying that 6 million people listening to podcasts. I don't see any
                    > place, though, that they are saying that these 6 million people are
                    > subscribing to podcasts or are regularly listening to podcasts.
                    > They're saying that 6 million people have dipped their toes in the
                    > water, which seems reasonable.
                    >
                    > Your guestimate of the regular podcast audience (300,000) seems
                    > realistic, but I don't see where this conflicts with Pew's numbers.

                    First, I think they way they have presented the result is
                    exceptionally misleading. The copy on their home page says: "More than
                    6 million American adults have listened to podcasts." That is a far
                    cry from: "More than 6 million American adults have downloaded a
                    podcast or internet radio program so they could listen to it on their
                    digital audio player at a later time," which is the correct
                    intepretation of the response to the survey question. In addition,
                    they're basing this 6 million extrapolation on a survey sample of only
                    208 people, a fact that they fail to to mention unless you dig into
                    the survey report itself. So yes, this is a textbook case of media
                    hype, but it's hype that is being fed either by an intentional
                    misrepresentation of the survey results or just plain bad statistics.
                    I'll give benefit of the doubt here for the moment and go with the latter.

                    Craig
                  • elle_webb
                    ... latter. ... Craig The crux of this seems to be what our idea of what a podcast is vs what Pew is considering a podcast. I think your ideas of what a
                    Message 9 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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                      > First, I think they way they have presented the result is
                      > exceptionally misleading. The copy on their home page says: "More than
                      > 6 million American adults have listened to podcasts." That is a far
                      > cry from: "More than 6 million American adults have downloaded a
                      > podcast or internet radio program so they could listen to it on their
                      > digital audio player at a later time," which is the correct
                      > intepretation of the response to the survey question. In addition,
                      > they're basing this 6 million extrapolation on a survey sample of only
                      > 208 people, a fact that they fail to to mention unless you dig into
                      > the survey report itself. So yes, this is a textbook case of media
                      > hype, but it's hype that is being fed either by an intentional
                      > misrepresentation of the survey results or just plain bad statistics.
                      > I'll give benefit of the doubt here for the moment and go with the
                      latter.
                      >
                      > Craig

                      Craig

                      The crux of this seems to be what our idea of what a podcast is vs
                      what Pew is considering a podcast.

                      I think your ideas of what a podcast is, is probably pretty close to
                      mine - a collection of audio files in MP3 format, represented by an
                      RSS 2.0 newsfeed with Enclosure elements.

                      The mainstream idea of a podcast seems to be free Internet audio shows
                      that you can download.

                      We have a constant stream of submissions at Podcasting News from
                      people that want to get their "podcast" added to our directory, but
                      they have no RSS feed. Lots of people are creating "video podcasts",
                      too, which seems strange since you can't play video on iPods!

                      These two ideas seem to boil down to a user view, vs. a technical view.

                      We may know what's "right", but it may be counter-productive to try
                      and convince everybody else....
                    • Bill Kearney
                      Is this where we can trot out the Twain quotes? There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. and, my favorite: Get your facts first, and
                      Message 10 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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                        Is this where we can trot out the Twain quotes?

                        "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

                        and, my favorite:

                        "Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please."

                        I think it's more important to notice that organizations like Pew are taking
                        enough notice to begin polling about it. That's a good sign. Whether or
                        not the numbers are statistically valuable is perhaps less important.


                        ----- Original Message -----
                        From: "Craig Patchett" <craig@...>
                        > Take a look at the blog entry I wrote on it
                        > ... basically this survey is a textbook example of bad statistics.
                      • Alex Williams
                        Hey, they re looking for PR. And it worked. Dang. It seems like they are getting more attention in this list than Paris Hilton ;). Wait, didn t I hear that
                        Message 11 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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                          Hey, they're looking for PR. And it worked. Dang. It seems like they are
                          getting more attention in this list than Paris Hilton ;).

                          Wait, didn't I hear that Elvis is doing a podcast? Stop the presses!

                          Alex.





                          -----Original Message-----
                          From: Bill Kearney [mailto:wkearney99@...]
                          Sent: Monday, April 04, 2005 3:43 PM
                          To: podcasters@yahoogroups.com
                          Subject: Re: [podcasters] Re: Pew report on podcasting




                          Is this where we can trot out the Twain quotes?

                          "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

                          and, my favorite:

                          "Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you
                          please."

                          I think it's more important to notice that organizations like Pew are
                          taking enough notice to begin polling about it. That's a good sign.
                          Whether or not the numbers are statistically valuable is perhaps less
                          important.


                          ----- Original Message -----
                          From: "Craig Patchett" <craig@...>
                          > Take a look at the blog entry I wrote on it
                          > ... basically this survey is a textbook example of bad statistics.




                          Yahoo! Groups Links
                        • Bill Kearney
                          From: Geek News ... Given the use of various p2p techniques (torrent, ed2k, etc) it s not like any real numbers are going to
                          Message 12 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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                            From: "Geek News" <geek@...>
                            > Talk is cheap stats backed up by log files is king.

                            Given the use of various p2p techniques (torrent, ed2k, etc) it's not like
                            any real numbers are going to emerge. This is a good thing for some, a bad
                            thing for others. Folks bent on "proving" or controlling consumption aren't
                            going to be happy. Folks interested in encouraging as wide an audience as
                            possible while also saving network bandwidth will be delighted. It's all a
                            matter of balance. But for the control crowd there's really next to nothing
                            they can "do" without resorting to DRM per-play schemes (and many will try).

                            The only effective way to gauge consumption is by having the content lead
                            the audience back to some other form of measurable activity; like a web
                            page. If you're engaging your audience and you want to track it then have
                            something to say that brings 'em back to a web page.

                            But even with web page logs, what do you really know? Sure, you can infer
                            all sorts of things but most of it just ends up as hype.

                            -Bill Kearney
                          • Bill Kearney
                            ... Counter-productive technical arguments when RSS and XML is involved? NO! SAY IT AIN T SO!
                            Message 13 of 24 , Apr 4, 2005
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                              > We may know what's "right", but it may be counter-productive to try
                              > and convince everybody else....

                              Counter-productive technical arguments when RSS and XML is involved? NO!
                              SAY IT AIN'T SO!
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