To: U.S. Congress
That the growing consensus amongst the World's leading petroleum
geologists and geophysicists is that the peak of global oil production
will occur at some point within the next 10 years (see the Association
for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas at www.peakoil.net), after which there
will be a permanent and ongoing decline in the global extraction of
oil, followed by a similar peak and decline in natural gas production.
That with most non-OPEC countries having already peaked, the percentage
of global oil production will be increasingly concentrated in the
Middle East. Production in the Middle East will also peak soon.
That the global discovery of oil peaked in 1962 and has been declining
ever since. Continuing this trend, most future discoveries of oil
fields will be too small and/or much more challenging: hence,
extraction costs will be extremely high.
That the accepted reserve numbers of IEA and USGS are not verified and
are likely to be overstated due to political and financial pressures.
That the strong economic advances by China and India are dramatically
intensifying global competition for access to oil reserves.
That technology and the market alone cannot provide a solution to this
problem and leadership must be shown by the Government.
That due to oil being so essential for economies, and with increasing
competition, there is a very high risk of economic, political and
military conflict over the control of remaining resources.
That any solution to the global decline in oil production must take
into account climate change.
That our current economic and social structure, and indeed our way of
life, is dependent on cheap oil and gas in every way, from transport to
medicine, and from agriculture to plastics - which so many jobs, and
thus our economy, rely.
That the prevailing expectations, standards and aspirations of many in
modern industrialised societies is a culture based on the cheap and
easy supply of oil, and thus any solution must address that culture.
That once it is realised that the oil-based economy is in permanent
terminal decline, removing the confidence in perpetual growth on which
the Financial System depends, the assumption of ever-onward growth,
borrowing and lending dry up: there being little that is viable for one
to invest in. It follows that there will be a need to remove vast
amounts of so-called Capital, which in fact is not Capital in the sense
of being the saved proceeds of labor, but merely an expression of
speculative confidence in ever-onward economic growth. This financial
shock will destroy many types of investments such as pensions.
We recognise that it is better to act as soon as possible, making the
most of our economic strength to prepare for the transition. The
essential and realistic task is to mitigate the consequences in order
to prevent the extreme difficulties that are on the way from becoming
catastrophes. We believe pre-emptive action and leadership from the
Government is needed to soften the impact of declining oil supply, and
therefore call on the Government to:
Prepare a full, honest and major public awareness campaign on the
future economic and lifestyle consequences of oil depletion.
Establish a set of national targets for clean, renewable energy
self-sufficiency by the year 2025.
Create a long-term plan to secure the well-being of every member of a
low-carbon economy and society.
Establish measures and policies to encourage efficient use of energy
throughout the economy within a framework of reducing total energy
consumption, such as DTQs (www.dtqs.org).
Rethink and revise climate change policies and targets in the light of
oil depletion data.
Recognize the fundamental significance of declining oil and thus
prioritize the budget allocation to scientific research, energy
efficiency and other policy measures aimed at commerce, industry and
individuals, designed to manage the transition to a low-carbon society
as speedily and painlessly as possible.
Furthermore, recognize the importance of oil and gas in agriculture and
therefore address how food will be grown and distributed in the future.
Pro-actively work on international cooperation on energy resource
management and energy solution development - e.g. sign and follow the
'Rimini Protocol' so as to cut imports to match world depletion rate.
For Further Information:
This Statement of Beliefs was originally formulated by
www.PowerSwitch.org.uk and launched on February 14th 2005. Many thanks
to them for starting this effort and for lending this model for Peak
Oil awareness worldwide. Please look at their site for a comprehensive
discourse on the Peak Oil issue.
-- A huge part of the illusion surrounding the cheap oil era is that the only alternative to modernity is the stone age.
http://www.mogiljansky.tk/ (please ignore the yahoo email address)
http://www.fastmail.fm - A fast, anti-spam email service.
Composting walnut leaves?Does anyone know, is it OK to make compost (leaf mould) out of walnut trees? I am not sure exactly what species of walnut is growing in my new garden but I guess it is the commonly grown kind here in England.
I have read that walnuts can affect the plants growing round or near them, rainwater can drip off the leaves and damage smaller plants around. This seems to be substantiated on http://www.2020site.org/trees/walnut-tree.html
So, will the leaves continue to poison other plants once composted?