Re: [patriotzip] Coffin Corner Volume 34 Number 6 Coach Ranking Article Chart [1 Attachment]
- Came through, Ed, but very small, and sideways. Maybe you can give it another try when you have more time.
But I doubt that I'll join the site. On my income, I'd rather not lay out $35 for information beyond what's available to me free. I rarely need that kind of remote detail. But thanks for the thought.
On Wed, Jan 2, 2013 at 8:40 PM, Ed Bryant <edbryant36@...> wrote:[Attachment(s) from Ed Bryant included below]George, I will finish most of your reply to me later, but I switched on the computer here at 8 30 AM, needing to get dressed to be in Court in half an hour, to scan an attachment to you.
I recommend profootballresearchers.org, if only for the gamebooks, which is why I joined in the first place. It's $35 US per year. The organization's publication is called Coffin Corner, and I just opened the most recent Coffin Corner this morning. A government employee annoyed me by failing to say whether Duke Slater is related to Jackie and Matthew, but hey, I'd never heard of Duke Slater before his article! The very next article when I turned the page is entitled "Ranking the NFL Head Coaches," and it came with a chart, so I endeavored to scan the chart to you, which I hope to do, just as soon as I finish this sentence, click on "attach," and attempt to find the "file" that represents the chart; here goes!
Nope. I'll have to try another scan! Here goes! Ah! It saves to "pictures." Take two! I think it worked this time.
I have to run, and this is a bit apples and oranges with your recent undertaking, but here it is! Happy New Year, and don't take any broken bahts!
From: George Richman <patswingr@...>
Sent: Wednesday, January 2, 2013 1:08 AM
Subject: Re: [patriotzip] No "Happy New Year" for 7 NFL Head Coaches, and 4 General Managers
Well, Ed, I think you missed my point in displaying the pass/run ratio for the playoff teams, which was that, since they are all over the map, we can't look to that as a factor in the failure of the fired coaches. But, since you asked, they ranged from 50% passing for the Chiefs, to 57% for the Chargers. As I said, it's not necessarily a determining factor for success or failure.
As to the Manning - Smith reference, yes, my ancient brain did switch Smith with Fox on that one. Sorry. :-)
Tony Dungy? I acknowledge that I just don't like the guy. Never did. :-)
I totally agree with you on the "patience" issue. Some owners have it; some don't. But I think that most expect to see some positive movement during the second season for a new HC. When there's no sign of life after a new coach has a full season, then a full off season, to at least show that he's heading in right direction, I can't fault an owner for looking elsewhere. That despite the fact that I personally think a new HC should be given at least 3 years to demonstrate real progress. Even then, you have to look at what he was provided by the GM, if the HC doesn't have full player acquisition authority. For example, Wisenhunt, in Arizona, wasn't given a quality QB after Warner retired. The Cardinals went "all in" with Eagles backup, Kevin Kolb, based on little more than one outstanding performance as a substitute starter in Philly, and Kolb proved mediocre, at best. Then the Cardinals drafted a RB, Wells, who was an injury waiting to happen. Another major mistake in player acquisition. How involved was Wisenhunt in that decision? We don't know. So, despite 3 years of very inconsistent performance, and overall failure, we have to wonder if Wisenhunt was really at fault for that.
In the end, it always comes down to the personality of the owner. There are 3 keys that determine the fate of new coach who struggles for 2-3 consecutive seasons, whether a new HC, or a long time HC with the team. They are: as you said, his patience, or lack thereof; hiss willingness to absorb some strong fan impatience (always a given!); and his knowledge of what's happening on the player acquisition front, and who's responsible for it.
A new HC should always attempt to reach an understanding with his new boss as to what he, the HC, views as the time required to build a winner. It's been said that Shanahan told Daniel Snyder that the Redskins rebirth would be a 5-year project. Whether or not Snyder really accepted that, we'll never know. But Shanahan appears to have come in well within the limit.
Life as a Head Coach in the NFL has been a walk across a wind blown wooden suspension bridge for most of them throughout the years. It probably always will be. Even greatly respected and successful coaches like Tom Landry can get blown off of that bridge if a new owner, with an ego the size of a mountain, takes over the team. Andy Reid may be the most recent example of that. His Eagles teams had their ups and downs throughout his 15 years there; but they were a serious contender for most of those years. Yet, somehow, that shining silver football on a pedestal eluded him, while Belichick was winning 3, and Division Rival, Coughlin, was winning 2; and the bridge swung out from under him.
I hope the bridge holds strong for you in all aspects of your life for this new year, and beyond, Ed! :-)On Wed, Jan 2, 2013 at 12:12 PM, Ed Bryant <edbryant36@...> wrote:Jeepers, George, you ignore your own stated question about why coaches get fired and wind up in Canton, Ohio, admiring the winners instead.
There's no pass/run ratio for losers, only for playoff teams, none of whom fired their coaches this week, where 7 of the 20 also-rans did so. What did you expect to conclude there?
After you start admiring winning coaches, you assign someone named Manning to Mike Smith. Are you confusing Mike Smith with John Fox? They coach different teams.
You give Peyton Manning all the credit for Tony Dungy's resurrection of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Indy Colts. Why?
One thing you might want to look for is the question of patience. How many coaches and or general managers are given the time resources they might need to do the job. Bill Belichick was in his fifth year in Cleveland, and I read somewhere today that some people were picking those Browns to win the Super Bowl until Art Modell spilled the beans and distracted everyone. The new Cleveland Browns have a new coach every half hour, while the Ozzie Newsome Baltimore Cleveland Brown Ravens are model of stability.
By the way, with Andy Reid no longer employed in Philly, the NFL coach with the longest tenure of any current coach now coaches the New England Patriots. This has to be the first time this has been so!
From: George Richman <patswingr@...>
Sent: Tuesday, January 1, 2013 11:02 AM
Subject: [patriotzip] No "Happy New Year" for 7 NFL Head Coaches, and 4 General Managers
That's 7 Head Coaches, so far! could be a couple more before the off
season actually starts, after the Super Bowl. That's a lot of
turnover. It presents a big challenge for the teams, and for Fantasy
Football players as well. :-)
(WARNING: Those of you who are not SERIOUS NFL fans, should stop now.
The rest of this will bore you to tears! - It will also convince you
of how outrageously addicted I am to this game!) :-)
For those of you who are nearly as hopelessly addicted to the game as
I am, I hope you'll enjoy the read. I think you will, if you go at it
when you have a bit of time. Like the time you used to use to study
the Fantasy Football numbers during the middle of the week. :-) It has
been fun for me to put it together during this sudden hole in my NFL
Changing Head Coaches usually means significant changes to the style
of play used by the team: a different balance between rushing and
passing; a different defensive strategy, etc.. And there's always the
question of whether a new GM/HC partnership will be able to quickly
get on the same page in obtaining the best players to fit the new
system. Can it be done in the upcoming season; or will it take another
year or two? Such changes may have a major effect upon the statistics
for key players and defenses; and statistics, of course, are the heart
of Fantasy Football.
But for those who want to simplify the failure of Head Coaches into
what statistics show, I offer you strong caution. Some like to say
that a HC fails because he chooses to either pass the ball too much,
or run it too much. Well, this season, the passing play percentages
for the 12 playoff teams range from a low of 52% (Seattle and San
Fran) to a high of 61% (NE); and 6 of them were at 56% or lower, with
the other 6 at 57% or higher. So the pass-to-run ration is not, in
itself, a key to success.
Well then, maybe it's individual star players who make the difference
in a HC's success. Records show that 8 of our 12 playoff teams had RBs
who gained over 1000 yards; 9 of them had QBs who passed for over 3500
yards; and 5 had one of each! ... Yeah but ... there were 8 RBs over
1000 yards rushing, and 9 QBs over 3500 yards passing among the teams
which did not make the playoffs - including the top 3 passing QBs:
Brees, Stafford, and Romo! However, I hasten to add that only ONE of
the 7 HC's who have been fired (so far) had a QB who threw for over
3500 yards (Norv Turner, for whom the Chargers' Phillip Rivers passed
for 3606). So there is some strong evidence to support the theory that
you can't win without a very good QB. The only 3 playoff teams that
got there without a 3500+ yards QB (MIN, WAS, SEA) had the top 3 RBs
in the league!
OK,. Gotta be the defense, right? Yeah but ... 6 our 7 fired HC's had
teams that ranked from #3 - #7 in Points Against (the only Defensive
stat that really matters).
In the end, it nearly always comes down to the only numbers that
really matter for the entire game - wins and losses. Only Lovie
Smith's Bears had a winning record this year going 10-6, and missing
the playoffs by 1 game, AND he took the Bears to the Super Bowl in
2006, the first time they'd been there in over 20 years. (Where' Jesse
Jackson?!!) ;-) And winning or losing, as I have tried to demonstrate
with the facts above, just can't be pinned down with numbers. The
closest we can come is that relationship to having a very good to
great QB; and, on most teams, that's the responsibility of the General
Manager, NOT the Head Coach. (Some HC's do have full authority over
player selection, but not many have that much power.)
But sometimes, even winning, and winning for many years, isn't enough
to satisfy fans; and if fans aren't satisfied, owners aren't
satisfied. Take a look at the records, for this season, and their
careers with their recent teams, of the 7 fired HC's:
Andy Reed 2012 = 4-12 (14 years 130-93-1) 7 Division
Championships; 1 Conference Championship - Too many years without a
Norv Turner 2012 = 7-9 (7 years 56-40) 3 Division Championships
- Too many years of "under achieving" with good talent
Lovie Smith 2012 = 10-6 (9 years 81-63) 3 Division
Championships; 1 Conference Championship - Too many years with
Ken Wisenhunt 2012 = 5-11 (6 years 45-51) 2 Division Championships; 1
Conference Championship - A loser once Kurt Warner retired
Chan Gailey 2012 = 6-10 (3 years 16-32) - No progress
Pat Shurmur 2012 = 5-11 (2 years 9-23) - No
Romeo Crennel 2012 = 2-14 (1+ years 4-15) - No progress
The intangibles that make up the package of what it takes to create
and maintain a consistent winning team in the NFL are numerous, and,
in some cases, mysterious. Just because I'm on the website to do it,
here's a look at the significant numbers of the most successful Head
Coaches in the history of the NFL since 1950: (Basic criteria are
winning percentage and championship achievements, listed in order of
winning percentages. Notes on "AFL" and NFL" Champ are before the
merger, and creation of the Super Bowl.)
1. John Madden 10 years - 102-33-7 - .763$ - Playoffs 9-7; 1 SB
(Which should have belonged to the 1978 Patriots. DAMN YOU, Ben
Drieth!) :-) (See *** note below.)
2. Vince Lombardi 10 years - 96-34-6 - .738% - Playoffs 9-1; 3 NFL
Champ; 2 SB (Hard to believe he didn't win over 100, but seasons were
shorter 12, then 14 games back then.)
3. George Allen 12 years - 116-47-5 - .700% - Playoffs 2-7 (Old
George could never get his "Over the Hill Gangs" through the
4. *Mike Smith 5 years - 56-24 - .700% - Playoffs 0-3 (Like
Allen, Smith, and under appreciated HC, hasn't been able to win in the
playoffs. This year, with Manning?)
5. Don Shula 33 years - 328-156-6 - ..678% - Playoffs 19-17;
2 AFL Champ; 2 SBs (And, of course, the league's ONLY undefeated
season - 14 Reg.Season, 3 Playoff games.)
6. Paul Brown 25 years - 213-104-9 - .672% - Playoffs 9-8; 7 NFL Champ
7. Tony Dungy 13 years - 139-69 - .668% - Playoffs 9-10; 1 SB
(Sorry, but give most of the credit for Dungy's success to Peyton
8. *Mike McCarthy 7 years - 74-38 - .661% - Playoffs 5-3; 1 SB
9. *Mike Tomlin 6 years - 63-33 - .656% - Playoffs 5-3; 1 SB
10. Bill Belichick 18 years - 187-101 - .649% - Playoffs 17-7; 3 SB
11. George Seifert 11 years - 114-62 - .648% - Playoffs 10-5; 2 SB
(All his success with the great 49er's teams, '89 - '96. Failed
miserably, 16-32, with Carolina. So, great?????)
12. *Sean Payton 6 years - 62-34 - .646% - Playoffs 5-3; 1 SB
(Can he bring the Saints back next season. I think so.)
13. Bill Cowher 15 years - 149-90-1 - .623% - Playoffs 12-9;
1 SB (Never understood him leaving the Steelers. Just burned out, I
guess. Back next year?)
14. Joe Gibbs 16 years - 154-94 - .621% - Playoffs 17-7; 3 SB
15. Bill Walsh 10 years - 92-59-1 - .609% - Playoffs 10-4; 3 SB
16. Tom Landry 29 years - 250-162-6 - .607% - Playoffs 20-16; 2 SB
I didn't want to include any coaches with winning percentages under
.600 on this list, and I didn't want to go over 20. But coaches who
have winning percentages, and have won 2 or more SBs can't be
excluded! Although that last one almost disgraces the list.
17. Mike Shanahan 17 years - 167-125 - .572% - Playoffs 8-5; 2 SB
(Definitely can't be excluded, since he may be beginning a new run
with RGIII and Alfred Morris!)
18. Bill Parcells 19 years - 172-130-1 - .570% - Playoffs
11-8; 2 SB (Could have been 3 SBs if the bastard didn't quit on the
Patriots during the playoffs!!)
19. Chuck Noll 23 years - 193-148-1 - .566% - Playoffs 16-8;
4 - COUNT 'EM - 4 SB wins!
20. Jimmy Johnson 9 years - 80-64 - . 556% - Playoffs 9-4; 2 SB
(Might have been more SBs, if Jones had gotten out of Jimmy's way!)
21. Tom Coughlin 17 years - 151-121 - .555% - Playoffs 11-7; 2
SB (Gets less recognition than he deserves. Pulled JAX from nowhere,
and 2 SBs in NY.)
22. Tom Flores 12 years - 97-87 - .527% - Playoffs 8-3; 2 SB
(But we all know who called the shots for the Raidahs back then. for
both Madden and Flores!) ;-)
* In most lists of "all time greats", I wouldn't include coaches with
less than 10 years of experience, and less than 100 games coaches. But
numbers alone shouldn't exclude coaches who have been as successful in
their short careers as Mike Smith, Mike Tomlin, Mike McCarthy, and
Sean Payton. I think that they will all earn a spot, without an
asterisk, on a list of all time greatest coaches before their careers
1. There have been 46 Super Bowls played thus far. Only 9 HCs have won
2 Lombardi Trophies. (Mike McCarthy could become #10 this year.)
2. Only 3 on this list have won 3 times (Belichick, Gibbs, and Walsh).
(Mike Shanahan could become #3 this year. Shanahan could also become
the only HC to win a SB with 2 different teams, should he take the
Redskins all the way this year ... or in a season soon to come.)
3. Only 1 has won 4 times (Chuck Noll). (Bill Belichick could become
#2 this year.)
4. Only 4 of these coaches have a winning percentage of .700 or better
in Playoff games: Lombardi, Belichick, Gibbs, Walsh, and, believe it
or not, Flores.
5. Special recognition should be given to the great coaches in NFL
history who launched this game toward what it has become. While the
game was too much different then in terms of equipment, rules, and,
most importantly, athletes and level of competition, to compare to
today's numbers; those intangibles I referred to earlier were still
the thing that made for success in this most physical of team sports.
So hats off, and a sincere "Thank you", to:
- George Halas 318 wins from 1920 to 1967;
- Curley Lambeau 226 wins from 1021-1953;
- Steve Owen 151 wins from 1931 to 1953.
6. And I'll also give a tip of the hat to other coaches who, while not
meeting my standards for this list, won over 125 games during this
modern era. They are:
- Marty Shottenheimer 200 wins from 1977-2006, but 5-13 in the
Playoffs. An infamous "choker" in big games.
- Dan Reeves 190 wins from 1977 to 2003, but a meager .535 winning
percentage, and 4 SB losses.
- Chuck Knox 186 wins from 1973-1994, but just 7-11 in the Playoffs,
and no Conference Championships.
- Mike Holmgren, a tough cut, with 160 wins from 1989-2008, a .592
winning percentage, plus 1 SB win, but he doesn't pass either of my 2
criteria - a .600 winning percentage, and/or 2 SB wins.
- Bud Grant 158 wins from 1967-1985, and a .622 winning percentage,
but those haunting 4 SB losses.
- Jeff Fisher 149 wins from 1989 to present, but only 5-6 in the
Playoffs and 1 "near miss" in the SB. But he's good. He may make a
"greatest coaches" list before he's done.
- Marv Levy 143 wins from 1978 to 1997, but "ditto" the Bud Grant
fate, with 4 SB losses.
- Hank Stram 131 wins from 1960 to 1977, but his .575 percentage and
single SB win keep him off the list, despite some of the best sound
bites in NFL TV history.
- Andy Reed 130 wins from 1999 to 2012, but a .583 percentage and no
SB rings have him on the street, and off this list.
- Weeb Ewbank 130 wins, but 129 losses, which, despite his 1 "anomaly"
SB win does not get him a spot on the "greatest" list.
- Jim Mora 125 wins, but a .541 percentage and an 0-6 record in the
PLAYOFFS? WE'RE TALKING ABOUT PLAYOFFS?!
And that's a great place to close an item related to NFL Head Coaches! :-)
Data source: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/coaches/
Except, of course, for this never to be forgotten note, taken from
Wikipedia, in the game which should have set the Patriots up for their
first Super Bowl win back in 1976. It was the best team the Patriots
ever had, until the Belichick/Brady era.
(Words enclosed in [ ] are my comments ... not that I'd have to tell you that!)
*** Divisional playoffs
December 18, 1976
AFC: Oakland Raiders 24, New England Patriots 21
The Patriots scored first after an 86-yard drive was capped by running
back Andy Johnson's 1-yard touchdown run. However, Oakland scored 10
straight points, including a 31-yard touchdown reception to wide
receiver Fred Biletnikoff with 39 seconds left in the first half. The
Patriots then scored two touchdowns of their own in the third period
to regain the lead, 21-10. In the fourth quarter, the Raiders marched
70 yards to score on a 1-yard touchdown run by Mark van Eeghen to pull
it to 21-17. Late in the final period, a Patriots drive that
threatened either a clinching score or running out the game clock was
stopped after Raiders linebacker Phil Villapiano was able to hold
Patriots tight end Russ Francis on a third-down pass play without
drawing a pass interference penalty [ACTUALLY, the bastard broke
Francis' nose with an elbow to the face! - NO FLAG!], stalling the
drive and leading to a missed 50-yard field goal attempt. On the
ensuing Raiders drive, a controversial roughing the passer penalty
called by referee Ben Dreith [NOBODY but Drieth thought that was
roughing the passer!! Not even the Raiders fans seated around me in
the stadium!] on Patriots tackle Ray "Sugar Bear" Hamilton nullified a
third down incompletion and gave the Raiders an automatic first down
deep in New England territory (instead of 4th and 18). The call setup
Stabler's game-winning touchdown. Biletnikoff finished the game with 9
receptions for 137 yards and a touchdown. Oakland avenged its only
loss of the year, which came at the hands of the Patriots. [The
Raidahs went on to win the Super Bowl that season, handing Bud Grant
one of his 4 Super Bowl defeats. Shoulda been the Patriots!]