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RE: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

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  • Elliot Sandle
    Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together. Elliot From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf
    Message 1 of 14 , Jun 26, 2013
    • 0 Attachment

      Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together.

       

      Elliot

       

      From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Kim Hoffmann
      Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:45 PM
      To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
      Subject: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

       

       

      Elliot,

       

      The projections were based on the following

       

      \mathrm{Win} = \frac{\text{runs scored}^2}{\text{runs scored}^2 + \text{runs allowed}^2} = \frac{1}{1+(\text{runs allowed}/\text{runs scored})^2}

       

      I originally saw this in Bill James' baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought it was a pretty interesting formula back then.  I did not have a computer so I had to perform these by calculator (No I did not use a slide rule).  Any way, for baseball it appears to follow pretty well.  Some statisticians have said the exponent should be 1.83, not 2.  But, for fun, I use the 2 exponent and that is what I used to determine the projected wins below.  I rounded the values, so if it came out to be 31.52 wins I rounded it to 32. 

       

      I hope that helps you out.  After June is done, I will try and put some more stats together.

       

      Kim

      Chesterton Oxen

       

      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...>
      Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 10:50 PM
      Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins

      Nice Kim. How did you determine the projections?

      On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 4:58 PM, Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...> wrote:

       

      In case you were interested, this is how many wins you should have.  The Wins column is the projected wins based off of the Bill James Pythagorean equation.  The actual wins it what the team has to date.  A positive difference means you have more wins than projected, and a negative means you have less wins than predicted.  Oxen have the largest positive differential (+9) and Wenham with the largest negative (-6).  Nashville and Gilead are right on.

       

      Team

      W-L

      Wins

      Actual

      Dif

      Aberdeen ORIOLES

      0.615

      32

      31

      -1

      Antelope MUDDUCKS

      0.539

      28

      29

      1

      California CHAUNS

      0.585

      30

      26

      -4

      Carmichael COMETS

      0.403

      21

      24

      3

      Chesterton OXEN

      0.369

      19

      28

      9

      Chicago BLACK SOX

      0.479

      25

      22

      -3

      Gilead GUNSLINGERS

      0.507

      26

      26

      0

      Nashville NINE

      0.607

      32

      32

      0

      Palm Beach BOMBERS

      0.538

      28

      26

      -2

      Roseville KNIGHTS

      0.446

      23

      22

      -1

      San Diego SLUGGERS

      0.462

      24

      22

      -2

      Taylors TORNADOS

      0.462

      24

      27

      3

      Utah AVALANCHE

      0.484

      25

      28

      3

      Wenham WARTHOGS

      0.629

      32

      26

      -6

      West Penn RIVER RATS

      0.324

      17

      18

      1

      Wisconsin WARHAWKS

      0.611

      32

      28

      -4

      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: William Hines <sdragonus@...>
      Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 1:11 AM
      Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! - WENHAM UPDATE

       

      Thanks William.

      On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 10:01 PM, William Hines <sdragonus@...> wrote:

       

      Wenham is good to go with the playball file as is.  No changes for June roster.  Thanks.

      William

      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
      Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 6:26 PM
      Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]

       

      Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot

    • Kim Hoffmann
      In case you are interested.  I will put some more interesting things up (well, at least what I think is interesting any  way) later on.   Kim Chesterton
      Message 2 of 14 , Jun 29, 2013
      • 1 Attachment
      • 22 KB
      In case you are interested.  I will put some more interesting things up (well, at least what I think is interesting any  way) later on.
       
      Kim
      Chesterton Oxen

      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: 'Kim Hoffmann' <b_bunyans@...>; outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
      Sent: Thursday, June 27, 2013 12:58 AM
      Subject: RE: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula
      Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together.
       
      Elliot
       
      From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Kim Hoffmann
      Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:45 PM
      To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
      Subject: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula
       
       
      Elliot,
       
      The projections were based on the following
       
      \mathrm{Win} = \frac{\text{runs scored}^2}{\text{runs scored}^2 + \text{runs allowed}^2} = \frac{1}{1+(\text{runs allowed}/\text{runs scored})^2}
       
      I originally saw this in Bill James' baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought it was a pretty interesting formula back then.  I did not have a computer so I had to perform these by calculator (No I did not use a slide rule).  Any way, for baseball it appears to follow pretty well.  Some statisticians have said the exponent should be 1.83, not 2.  But, for fun, I use the 2 exponent and that is what I used to determine the projected wins below.  I rounded the values, so if it came out to be 31.52 wins I rounded it to 32. 
       
      I hope that helps you out.  After June is done, I will try and put some more stats together.
       
      Kim
      Chesterton Oxen
       
      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...>
      Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 10:50 PM
      Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins
      Nice Kim. How did you determine the projections?
      On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 4:58 PM, Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...> wrote:
       
      In case you were interested, this is how many wins you should have.  The Wins column is the projected wins based off of the Bill James Pythagorean equation.  The actual wins it what the team has to date.  A positive difference means you have more wins than projected, and a negative means you have less wins than predicted.  Oxen have the largest positive differential (+9) and Wenham with the largest negative (-6).  Nashville and Gilead are right on.
       
      Team
      W-L
      Wins
      Actual
      Dif
      Aberdeen ORIOLES
      0.615
      32
      31
      -1
      Antelope MUDDUCKS
      0.539
      28
      29
      1
      California CHAUNS
      0.585
      30
      26
      -4
      Carmichael COMETS
      0.403
      21
      24
      3
      Chesterton OXEN
      0.369
      19
      28
      9
      Chicago BLACK SOX
      0.479
      25
      22
      -3
      Gilead GUNSLINGERS
      0.507
      26
      26
      0
      Nashville NINE
      0.607
      32
      32
      0
      Palm Beach BOMBERS
      0.538
      28
      26
      -2
      Roseville KNIGHTS
      0.446
      23
      22
      -1
      San Diego SLUGGERS
      0.462
      24
      22
      -2
      Taylors TORNADOS
      0.462
      24
      27
      3
      Utah AVALANCHE
      0.484
      25
      28
      3
      Wenham WARTHOGS
      0.629
      32
      26
      -6
      West Penn RIVER RATS
      0.324
      17
      18
      1
      Wisconsin WARHAWKS
      0.611
      32
      28
      -4
      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: William Hines <sdragonus@...>
      Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 1:11 AM
      Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! - WENHAM UPDATE
       
      Thanks William.
      On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 10:01 PM, William Hines <sdragonus@...> wrote:
       
      Wenham is good to go with the playball file as is.  No changes for June roster.  Thanks.
      William
      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
      Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 6:26 PM
      Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]
       
      Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot
    • Elliot Sandle
      Kim, Very nice write up and statistical analysis. Keep’em coming, I love this stuff. Thanks, Elliot From: Kim Hoffmann [mailto:b_bunyans@yahoo.com] Sent:
      Message 3 of 14 , Jun 30, 2013
      • 0 Attachment

        Kim,

         

        Very nice write up and statistical analysis. Keep’em coming, I love this stuff.


        Thanks,
        Elliot

         

        From: Kim Hoffmann [mailto:b_bunyans@...]
        Sent: Saturday, June 29, 2013 9:26 AM
        To: Elliot Sandle; outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
        Subject: Another look at Pythagorean

         

        In case you are interested.  I will put some more interesting things up (well, at least what I think is interesting any  way) later on.

         

        Kim

        Chesterton Oxen

         

        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: 'Kim Hoffmann' <b_bunyans@...>; outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
        Sent: Thursday, June 27, 2013 12:58 AM
        Subject: RE: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

        Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together.

         

        Elliot

         

        From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Kim Hoffmann
        Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:45 PM
        To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
        Subject: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

         

         

        Elliot,

         

        The projections were based on the following

         

        \mathrm{Win} = \frac{\text{runs scored}^2}{\text{runs scored}^2 + \text{runs allowed}^2} = \frac{1}{1+(\text{runs allowed}/\text{runs scored})^2}

         

        I originally saw this in Bill James' baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought it was a pretty interesting formula back then.  I did not have a computer so I had to perform these by calculator (No I did not use a slide rule).  Any way, for baseball it appears to follow pretty well.  Some statisticians have said the exponent should be 1.83, not 2.  But, for fun, I use the 2 exponent and that is what I used to determine the projected wins below.  I rounded the values, so if it came out to be 31.52 wins I rounded it to 32. 

         

        I hope that helps you out.  After June is done, I will try and put some more stats together.

         

        Kim

        Chesterton Oxen

         

        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...>
        Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
        Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 10:50 PM
        Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins

        Nice Kim. How did you determine the projections?

        On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 4:58 PM, Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...> wrote:

         

        In case you were interested, this is how many wins you should have.  The Wins column is the projected wins based off of the Bill James Pythagorean equation.  The actual wins it what the team has to date.  A positive difference means you have more wins than projected, and a negative means you have less wins than predicted.  Oxen have the largest positive differential (+9) and Wenham with the largest negative (-6).  Nashville and Gilead are right on.

         

        Team

        W-L

        Wins

        Actual

        Dif

        Aberdeen ORIOLES

        0.615

        32

        31

        -1

        Antelope MUDDUCKS

        0.539

        28

        29

        1

        California CHAUNS

        0.585

        30

        26

        -4

        Carmichael COMETS

        0.403

        21

        24

        3

        Chesterton OXEN

        0.369

        19

        28

        9

        Chicago BLACK SOX

        0.479

        25

        22

        -3

        Gilead GUNSLINGERS

        0.507

        26

        26

        0

        Nashville NINE

        0.607

        32

        32

        0

        Palm Beach BOMBERS

        0.538

        28

        26

        -2

        Roseville KNIGHTS

        0.446

        23

        22

        -1

        San Diego SLUGGERS

        0.462

        24

        22

        -2

        Taylors TORNADOS

        0.462

        24

        27

        3

        Utah AVALANCHE

        0.484

        25

        28

        3

        Wenham WARTHOGS

        0.629

        32

        26

        -6

        West Penn RIVER RATS

        0.324

        17

        18

        1

        Wisconsin WARHAWKS

        0.611

        32

        28

        -4

        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: William Hines <sdragonus@...>
        Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
        Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 1:11 AM
        Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! - WENHAM UPDATE

         

        Thanks William.

        On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 10:01 PM, William Hines <sdragonus@...> wrote:

         

        Wenham is good to go with the playball file as is.  No changes for June roster.  Thanks.

        William

        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
        Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 6:26 PM
        Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]

         

        Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot

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