RE: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

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• Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together. Elliot From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf
Message 1 of 14 , Jun 26, 2013
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Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together.

Elliot

From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Kim Hoffmann
Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:45 PM
To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

Elliot,

The projections were based on the following

I originally saw this in Bill James' baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought it was a pretty interesting formula back then.  I did not have a computer so I had to perform these by calculator (No I did not use a slide rule).  Any way, for baseball it appears to follow pretty well.  Some statisticians have said the exponent should be 1.83, not 2.  But, for fun, I use the 2 exponent and that is what I used to determine the projected wins below.  I rounded the values, so if it came out to be 31.52 wins I rounded it to 32.

I hope that helps you out.  After June is done, I will try and put some more stats together.

Kim

Chesterton Oxen

From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...>
Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 10:50 PM
Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins

Nice Kim. How did you determine the projections?

On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 4:58 PM, Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...> wrote:

In case you were interested, this is how many wins you should have.  The Wins column is the projected wins based off of the Bill James Pythagorean equation.  The actual wins it what the team has to date.  A positive difference means you have more wins than projected, and a negative means you have less wins than predicted.  Oxen have the largest positive differential (+9) and Wenham with the largest negative (-6).  Nashville and Gilead are right on.

 Team W-L Wins Actual Dif Aberdeen ORIOLES 0.615 32 31 -1 Antelope MUDDUCKS 0.539 28 29 1 California CHAUNS 0.585 30 26 -4 Carmichael COMETS 0.403 21 24 3 Chesterton OXEN 0.369 19 28 9 Chicago BLACK SOX 0.479 25 22 -3 Gilead GUNSLINGERS 0.507 26 26 0 Nashville NINE 0.607 32 32 0 Palm Beach BOMBERS 0.538 28 26 -2 Roseville KNIGHTS 0.446 23 22 -1 San Diego SLUGGERS 0.462 24 22 -2 Taylors TORNADOS 0.462 24 27 3 Utah AVALANCHE 0.484 25 28 3 Wenham WARTHOGS 0.629 32 26 -6 West Penn RIVER RATS 0.324 17 18 1 Wisconsin WARHAWKS 0.611 32 28 -4

From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: William Hines <sdragonus@...>
Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 1:11 AM
Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! - WENHAM UPDATE

Thanks William.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 10:01 PM, William Hines <sdragonus@...> wrote:

Wenham is good to go with the playball file as is.  No changes for June roster.  Thanks.

William

From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 6:26 PM
Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]

Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot

• In case you are interested.  I will put some more interesting things up (well, at least what I think is interesting any  way) later on.   Kim Chesterton
Message 2 of 14 , Jun 29, 2013
• 1 Attachment
• 22 KB
In case you are interested.  I will put some more interesting things up (well, at least what I think is interesting any  way) later on.

Kim
Chesterton Oxen

From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: 'Kim Hoffmann' <b_bunyans@...>; outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, June 27, 2013 12:58 AM
Subject: RE: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula
Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together.

Elliot

From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Kim Hoffmann
Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:45 PM
To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

Elliot,

The projections were based on the following

I originally saw this in Bill James' baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought it was a pretty interesting formula back then.  I did not have a computer so I had to perform these by calculator (No I did not use a slide rule).  Any way, for baseball it appears to follow pretty well.  Some statisticians have said the exponent should be 1.83, not 2.  But, for fun, I use the 2 exponent and that is what I used to determine the projected wins below.  I rounded the values, so if it came out to be 31.52 wins I rounded it to 32.

I hope that helps you out.  After June is done, I will try and put some more stats together.

Kim
Chesterton Oxen

From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...>
Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 10:50 PM
Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins
Nice Kim. How did you determine the projections?
On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 4:58 PM, Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...> wrote:

In case you were interested, this is how many wins you should have.  The Wins column is the projected wins based off of the Bill James Pythagorean equation.  The actual wins it what the team has to date.  A positive difference means you have more wins than projected, and a negative means you have less wins than predicted.  Oxen have the largest positive differential (+9) and Wenham with the largest negative (-6).  Nashville and Gilead are right on.

 Team W-L Wins Actual Dif Aberdeen ORIOLES 0.615 32 31 -1 Antelope MUDDUCKS 0.539 28 29 1 California CHAUNS 0.585 30 26 -4 Carmichael COMETS 0.403 21 24 3 Chesterton OXEN 0.369 19 28 9 Chicago BLACK SOX 0.479 25 22 -3 Gilead GUNSLINGERS 0.507 26 26 0 Nashville NINE 0.607 32 32 0 Palm Beach BOMBERS 0.538 28 26 -2 Roseville KNIGHTS 0.446 23 22 -1 San Diego SLUGGERS 0.462 24 22 -2 Taylors TORNADOS 0.462 24 27 3 Utah AVALANCHE 0.484 25 28 3 Wenham WARTHOGS 0.629 32 26 -6 West Penn RIVER RATS 0.324 17 18 1 Wisconsin WARHAWKS 0.611 32 28 -4
From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: William Hines <sdragonus@...>
Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 1:11 AM
Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! - WENHAM UPDATE

Thanks William.
On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 10:01 PM, William Hines <sdragonus@...> wrote:

Wenham is good to go with the playball file as is.  No changes for June roster.  Thanks.
William
From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 6:26 PM
Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]

Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot
• Kim, Very nice write up and statistical analysis. Keep’em coming, I love this stuff. Thanks, Elliot From: Kim Hoffmann [mailto:b_bunyans@yahoo.com] Sent:
Message 3 of 14 , Jun 30, 2013
• 0 Attachment

Kim,

Very nice write up and statistical analysis. Keep’em coming, I love this stuff.

Thanks,
Elliot

From: Kim Hoffmann [mailto:b_bunyans@...]
Sent: Saturday, June 29, 2013 9:26 AM
To: Elliot Sandle; outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Another look at Pythagorean

In case you are interested.  I will put some more interesting things up (well, at least what I think is interesting any  way) later on.

Kim

Chesterton Oxen

From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: 'Kim Hoffmann' <b_bunyans@...>; outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, June 27, 2013 12:58 AM
Subject: RE: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together.

Elliot

From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Kim Hoffmann
Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:45 PM
To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

Elliot,

The projections were based on the following

I originally saw this in Bill James' baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought it was a pretty interesting formula back then.  I did not have a computer so I had to perform these by calculator (No I did not use a slide rule).  Any way, for baseball it appears to follow pretty well.  Some statisticians have said the exponent should be 1.83, not 2.  But, for fun, I use the 2 exponent and that is what I used to determine the projected wins below.  I rounded the values, so if it came out to be 31.52 wins I rounded it to 32.

I hope that helps you out.  After June is done, I will try and put some more stats together.

Kim

Chesterton Oxen

From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...>
Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 10:50 PM
Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins

Nice Kim. How did you determine the projections?

On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 4:58 PM, Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...> wrote:

In case you were interested, this is how many wins you should have.  The Wins column is the projected wins based off of the Bill James Pythagorean equation.  The actual wins it what the team has to date.  A positive difference means you have more wins than projected, and a negative means you have less wins than predicted.  Oxen have the largest positive differential (+9) and Wenham with the largest negative (-6).  Nashville and Gilead are right on.

 Team W-L Wins Actual Dif Aberdeen ORIOLES 0.615 32 31 -1 Antelope MUDDUCKS 0.539 28 29 1 California CHAUNS 0.585 30 26 -4 Carmichael COMETS 0.403 21 24 3 Chesterton OXEN 0.369 19 28 9 Chicago BLACK SOX 0.479 25 22 -3 Gilead GUNSLINGERS 0.507 26 26 0 Nashville NINE 0.607 32 32 0 Palm Beach BOMBERS 0.538 28 26 -2 Roseville KNIGHTS 0.446 23 22 -1 San Diego SLUGGERS 0.462 24 22 -2 Taylors TORNADOS 0.462 24 27 3 Utah AVALANCHE 0.484 25 28 3 Wenham WARTHOGS 0.629 32 26 -6 West Penn RIVER RATS 0.324 17 18 1 Wisconsin WARHAWKS 0.611 32 28 -4

From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: William Hines <sdragonus@...>
Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 1:11 AM
Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! - WENHAM UPDATE

Thanks William.

On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 10:01 PM, William Hines <sdragonus@...> wrote:

Wenham is good to go with the playball file as is.  No changes for June roster.  Thanks.

William

From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 6:26 PM
Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]

Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot

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