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[outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

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  • Kim Hoffmann
    Elliot,   The projections were based on the following    I originally saw this in Bill James baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought
    Message 1 of 14 , Jun 11, 2013
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      Elliot,
       
      The projections were based on the following
       
      \mathrm{Win} = \frac{\text{runs scored}^2}{\text{runs scored}^2 + \text{runs allowed}^2} = \frac{1}{1+(\text{runs allowed}/\text{runs scored})^2}
       
      I originally saw this in Bill James' baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought it was a pretty interesting formula back then.  I did not have a computer so I had to perform these by calculator (No I did not use a slide rule).  Any way, for baseball it appears to follow pretty well.  Some statisticians have said the exponent should be 1.83, not 2.  But, for fun, I use the 2 exponent and that is what I used to determine the projected wins below.  I rounded the values, so if it came out to be 31.52 wins I rounded it to 32. 
       
      I hope that helps you out.  After June is done, I will try and put some more stats together.
       
      Kim
      Chesterton Oxen

      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...>
      Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 10:50 PM
      Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins
      Nice Kim. How did you determine the projections?
      On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 4:58 PM, Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...> wrote:
       
      In case you were interested, this is how many wins you should have.  The Wins column is the projected wins based off of the Bill James Pythagorean equation.  The actual wins it what the team has to date.  A positive difference means you have more wins than projected, and a negative means you have less wins than predicted.  Oxen have the largest positive differential (+9) and Wenham with the largest negative (-6).  Nashville and Gilead are right on.
       
      TeamW-LWinsActualDif
      Aberdeen ORIOLES0.6153231-1
      Antelope MUDDUCKS0.53928291
      California CHAUNS0.5853026-4
      Carmichael COMETS0.40321243
      Chesterton OXEN0.36919289
      Chicago BLACK SOX0.4792522-3
      Gilead GUNSLINGERS0.50726260
      Nashville NINE0.60732320
      Palm Beach BOMBERS0.5382826-2
      Roseville KNIGHTS0.4462322-1
      San Diego SLUGGERS0.4622422-2
      Taylors TORNADOS0.46224273
      Utah AVALANCHE0.48425283
      Wenham WARTHOGS0.6293226-6
      West Penn RIVER RATS0.32417181
      Wisconsin WARHAWKS0.6113228-4
      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: William Hines <sdragonus@...>
      Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
      Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 1:11 AM
      Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! - WENHAM UPDATE
       
      Thanks William.
      On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 10:01 PM, William Hines <sdragonus@...> wrote:
       
      Wenham is good to go with the playball file as is.  No changes for June roster.  Thanks.
      William
      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
      Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 6:26 PM
      Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]
       
      Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot
    • Robert S
      Sox go 7-8 in June Sox 2 Wisconsin 3 Sox 3 Palm Beach 2 Sox 2 Antelope 3    Sox and Wisconsin split the first 4 and in the rubber game the Warhawks get 5 in
      Message 2 of 14 , Jun 23, 2013
      Sox go 7-8 in June
      Sox 2 Wisconsin 3
      Sox 3 Palm Beach 2
      Sox 2 Antelope 3
       
       Sox and Wisconsin split the first 4 and in the rubber game the Warhawks get 5 in the 8th against Soriano to beak open a tie game and win the rubber game 9 to 4.
      Palm Beach takes the first 2 with Cliff Lee throwing a 3 hit shutout for a 2-0 win in game 2. The Sox come back to take the last 3. Rodney locks down game 3 6-5, and Beltre hits a game winning 2 run homer off Grili to win game 4 7 -5. Game 5 goes 12 and Braun wins it with a 2 run homer off Ayala 4-2.
      The Mudducks take 2 of the first 3. Sox look like they have game 4 locked down but Ianetta takes Rodney deep for an Earl Williams special and Antelope wins 6-5.  Game 5 looked like the Mudducks were going to take 4 of 5 as they led 8-2 going to the bottom of the 8th. Sox came up big with 6 in the 8th, including a Tyler Flowers 3 run homer to tie, and then win it in the 9th with a 3-run Chris Davis homer to salvage game 5.

      From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
      To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
      Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 5:26 PM
      Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]
       
      Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot
    • Elliot Sandle
      Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together. Elliot From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf
      Message 3 of 14 , Jun 26, 2013
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        Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together.

         

        Elliot

         

        From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Kim Hoffmann
        Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:45 PM
        To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
        Subject: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

         

         

        Elliot,

         

        The projections were based on the following

         

        \mathrm{Win} = \frac{\text{runs scored}^2}{\text{runs scored}^2 + \text{runs allowed}^2} = \frac{1}{1+(\text{runs allowed}/\text{runs scored})^2}

         

        I originally saw this in Bill James' baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought it was a pretty interesting formula back then.  I did not have a computer so I had to perform these by calculator (No I did not use a slide rule).  Any way, for baseball it appears to follow pretty well.  Some statisticians have said the exponent should be 1.83, not 2.  But, for fun, I use the 2 exponent and that is what I used to determine the projected wins below.  I rounded the values, so if it came out to be 31.52 wins I rounded it to 32. 

         

        I hope that helps you out.  After June is done, I will try and put some more stats together.

         

        Kim

        Chesterton Oxen

         

        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...>
        Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
        Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 10:50 PM
        Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins

        Nice Kim. How did you determine the projections?

        On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 4:58 PM, Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...> wrote:

         

        In case you were interested, this is how many wins you should have.  The Wins column is the projected wins based off of the Bill James Pythagorean equation.  The actual wins it what the team has to date.  A positive difference means you have more wins than projected, and a negative means you have less wins than predicted.  Oxen have the largest positive differential (+9) and Wenham with the largest negative (-6).  Nashville and Gilead are right on.

         

        Team

        W-L

        Wins

        Actual

        Dif

        Aberdeen ORIOLES

        0.615

        32

        31

        -1

        Antelope MUDDUCKS

        0.539

        28

        29

        1

        California CHAUNS

        0.585

        30

        26

        -4

        Carmichael COMETS

        0.403

        21

        24

        3

        Chesterton OXEN

        0.369

        19

        28

        9

        Chicago BLACK SOX

        0.479

        25

        22

        -3

        Gilead GUNSLINGERS

        0.507

        26

        26

        0

        Nashville NINE

        0.607

        32

        32

        0

        Palm Beach BOMBERS

        0.538

        28

        26

        -2

        Roseville KNIGHTS

        0.446

        23

        22

        -1

        San Diego SLUGGERS

        0.462

        24

        22

        -2

        Taylors TORNADOS

        0.462

        24

        27

        3

        Utah AVALANCHE

        0.484

        25

        28

        3

        Wenham WARTHOGS

        0.629

        32

        26

        -6

        West Penn RIVER RATS

        0.324

        17

        18

        1

        Wisconsin WARHAWKS

        0.611

        32

        28

        -4

        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: William Hines <sdragonus@...>
        Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
        Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 1:11 AM
        Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! - WENHAM UPDATE

         

        Thanks William.

        On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 10:01 PM, William Hines <sdragonus@...> wrote:

         

        Wenham is good to go with the playball file as is.  No changes for June roster.  Thanks.

        William

        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
        Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 6:26 PM
        Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]

         

        Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot

      • Kim Hoffmann
        In case you are interested.  I will put some more interesting things up (well, at least what I think is interesting any  way) later on.   Kim Chesterton
        Message 4 of 14 , Jun 29, 2013
        • 1 Attachment
        • 22 KB
        In case you are interested.  I will put some more interesting things up (well, at least what I think is interesting any  way) later on.
         
        Kim
        Chesterton Oxen

        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: 'Kim Hoffmann' <b_bunyans@...>; outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
        Sent: Thursday, June 27, 2013 12:58 AM
        Subject: RE: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula
        Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together.
         
        Elliot
         
        From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Kim Hoffmann
        Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:45 PM
        To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
        Subject: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula
         
         
        Elliot,
         
        The projections were based on the following
         
        \mathrm{Win} = \frac{\text{runs scored}^2}{\text{runs scored}^2 + \text{runs allowed}^2} = \frac{1}{1+(\text{runs allowed}/\text{runs scored})^2}
         
        I originally saw this in Bill James' baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought it was a pretty interesting formula back then.  I did not have a computer so I had to perform these by calculator (No I did not use a slide rule).  Any way, for baseball it appears to follow pretty well.  Some statisticians have said the exponent should be 1.83, not 2.  But, for fun, I use the 2 exponent and that is what I used to determine the projected wins below.  I rounded the values, so if it came out to be 31.52 wins I rounded it to 32. 
         
        I hope that helps you out.  After June is done, I will try and put some more stats together.
         
        Kim
        Chesterton Oxen
         
        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...>
        Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
        Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 10:50 PM
        Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins
        Nice Kim. How did you determine the projections?
        On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 4:58 PM, Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...> wrote:
         
        In case you were interested, this is how many wins you should have.  The Wins column is the projected wins based off of the Bill James Pythagorean equation.  The actual wins it what the team has to date.  A positive difference means you have more wins than projected, and a negative means you have less wins than predicted.  Oxen have the largest positive differential (+9) and Wenham with the largest negative (-6).  Nashville and Gilead are right on.
         
        Team
        W-L
        Wins
        Actual
        Dif
        Aberdeen ORIOLES
        0.615
        32
        31
        -1
        Antelope MUDDUCKS
        0.539
        28
        29
        1
        California CHAUNS
        0.585
        30
        26
        -4
        Carmichael COMETS
        0.403
        21
        24
        3
        Chesterton OXEN
        0.369
        19
        28
        9
        Chicago BLACK SOX
        0.479
        25
        22
        -3
        Gilead GUNSLINGERS
        0.507
        26
        26
        0
        Nashville NINE
        0.607
        32
        32
        0
        Palm Beach BOMBERS
        0.538
        28
        26
        -2
        Roseville KNIGHTS
        0.446
        23
        22
        -1
        San Diego SLUGGERS
        0.462
        24
        22
        -2
        Taylors TORNADOS
        0.462
        24
        27
        3
        Utah AVALANCHE
        0.484
        25
        28
        3
        Wenham WARTHOGS
        0.629
        32
        26
        -6
        West Penn RIVER RATS
        0.324
        17
        18
        1
        Wisconsin WARHAWKS
        0.611
        32
        28
        -4
        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: William Hines <sdragonus@...>
        Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
        Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 1:11 AM
        Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! - WENHAM UPDATE
         
        Thanks William.
        On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 10:01 PM, William Hines <sdragonus@...> wrote:
         
        Wenham is good to go with the playball file as is.  No changes for June roster.  Thanks.
        William
        From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
        To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
        Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 6:26 PM
        Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]
         
        Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot
      • Elliot Sandle
        Kim, Very nice write up and statistical analysis. Keep’em coming, I love this stuff. Thanks, Elliot From: Kim Hoffmann [mailto:b_bunyans@yahoo.com] Sent:
        Message 5 of 14 , Jun 30, 2013
        • 0 Attachment

          Kim,

           

          Very nice write up and statistical analysis. Keep’em coming, I love this stuff.


          Thanks,
          Elliot

           

          From: Kim Hoffmann [mailto:b_bunyans@...]
          Sent: Saturday, June 29, 2013 9:26 AM
          To: Elliot Sandle; outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: Another look at Pythagorean

           

          In case you are interested.  I will put some more interesting things up (well, at least what I think is interesting any  way) later on.

           

          Kim

          Chesterton Oxen

           

          From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
          To: 'Kim Hoffmann' <b_bunyans@...>; outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
          Sent: Thursday, June 27, 2013 12:58 AM
          Subject: RE: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

          Being a stats nut, this is great stuff! Thanks for putting this together.

           

          Elliot

           

          From: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com [mailto:outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Kim Hoffmann
          Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 9:45 PM
          To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
          Subject: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins - formula

           

           

          Elliot,

           

          The projections were based on the following

           

          \mathrm{Win} = \frac{\text{runs scored}^2}{\text{runs scored}^2 + \text{runs allowed}^2} = \frac{1}{1+(\text{runs allowed}/\text{runs scored})^2}

           

          I originally saw this in Bill James' baseball abstract (I think it was the 1985 one).  I thought it was a pretty interesting formula back then.  I did not have a computer so I had to perform these by calculator (No I did not use a slide rule).  Any way, for baseball it appears to follow pretty well.  Some statisticians have said the exponent should be 1.83, not 2.  But, for fun, I use the 2 exponent and that is what I used to determine the projected wins below.  I rounded the values, so if it came out to be 31.52 wins I rounded it to 32. 

           

          I hope that helps you out.  After June is done, I will try and put some more stats together.

           

          Kim

          Chesterton Oxen

           

          From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
          To: Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...>
          Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
          Sent: Tuesday, June 11, 2013 10:50 PM
          Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] Pythagorean wins

          Nice Kim. How did you determine the projections?

          On Tue, Jun 11, 2013 at 4:58 PM, Kim Hoffmann <b_bunyans@...> wrote:

           

          In case you were interested, this is how many wins you should have.  The Wins column is the projected wins based off of the Bill James Pythagorean equation.  The actual wins it what the team has to date.  A positive difference means you have more wins than projected, and a negative means you have less wins than predicted.  Oxen have the largest positive differential (+9) and Wenham with the largest negative (-6).  Nashville and Gilead are right on.

           

          Team

          W-L

          Wins

          Actual

          Dif

          Aberdeen ORIOLES

          0.615

          32

          31

          -1

          Antelope MUDDUCKS

          0.539

          28

          29

          1

          California CHAUNS

          0.585

          30

          26

          -4

          Carmichael COMETS

          0.403

          21

          24

          3

          Chesterton OXEN

          0.369

          19

          28

          9

          Chicago BLACK SOX

          0.479

          25

          22

          -3

          Gilead GUNSLINGERS

          0.507

          26

          26

          0

          Nashville NINE

          0.607

          32

          32

          0

          Palm Beach BOMBERS

          0.538

          28

          26

          -2

          Roseville KNIGHTS

          0.446

          23

          22

          -1

          San Diego SLUGGERS

          0.462

          24

          22

          -2

          Taylors TORNADOS

          0.462

          24

          27

          3

          Utah AVALANCHE

          0.484

          25

          28

          3

          Wenham WARTHOGS

          0.629

          32

          26

          -6

          West Penn RIVER RATS

          0.324

          17

          18

          1

          Wisconsin WARHAWKS

          0.611

          32

          28

          -4

          From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
          To: William Hines <sdragonus@...>
          Cc: "outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com" <outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com>
          Sent: Wednesday, June 5, 2013 1:11 AM
          Subject: Re: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! - WENHAM UPDATE

           

          Thanks William.

          On Tue, Jun 4, 2013 at 10:01 PM, William Hines <sdragonus@...> wrote:

           

          Wenham is good to go with the playball file as is.  No changes for June roster.  Thanks.

          William

          From: Elliot Sandle <esandle@...>
          To: outlaws_bb@yahoogroups.com
          Sent: Monday, June 3, 2013 6:26 PM
          Subject: [outlaws_bb] June C-File - PLAYBALL! [1 Attachment]

           

          Hi Guys, It is time to play ball for the month of June. It is crunch time and June is the first of inter division play. Good luck to all of you as you try to position yourselves for your division leads. FYI... If you have a series with Wenham Warhog or San Diego Sluggers check with them before you play them. I have not received their June rosters. Thanks, Elliot

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