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Re: [mythsoc] Re: The Eowyn Challenge

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  • WendellWag@aol.com
    In a message dated 4/9/2008 10:20:10 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time, jef.murray@yahoo.com writes: Not only snow in London, but out in the Cotswalds, where we were
    Message 1 of 23 , Apr 9 12:50 PM
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      In a message dated 4/9/2008 10:20:10 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
      jef.murray@... writes:

      Not only snow in London, but out in the Cotswalds,
      where we were for the "Castles in the Mist"
      exhibition, we got about 6 inches!!! It melted, and
      the exhibition went on without a hitch, but what a
      sight when we first arose and opened the curtains at
      the Bell Inn (aka the Prancing Pony)!

      I lived in Gloucestershire for three years. Snow in early April is rare.
      Six inches of snow is downright bizarre. Did the earth open up and a beast
      with seven heads emerge? Did an angel come down from heaven and announce, "It
      is finished"? Six inches of snow in early April in southern England is
      practically a sign of the Apocalypse.

      Wendell Wagner





      **************Planning your summer road trip? Check out AOL Travel Guides.
      (http://travel.aol.com/travel-guide/united-states?ncid=aoltrv00030000000016)


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    • Carl F. Hostetter
      ... Sounds like Al Gore was in town, giving a talk on global warming....
      Message 2 of 23 , Apr 9 1:32 PM
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        --- In mythsoc@yahoogroups.com, WendellWag@... wrote:
        >
        > In a message dated 4/9/2008 10:20:10 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
        > jef.murray@... writes:
        >
        > Not only snow in London, but out in the Cotswalds,
        >
        > I lived in Gloucestershire for three years. Snow in early April is rare.
        > Six inches of snow is downright bizarre.

        Sounds like Al Gore was in town, giving a talk on global warming....
      • Andrew Higgins
        Snow in London is now all gone - as a matter of fact today it was like a summer s day - go figure. Carl - what s next for ELF?? I have read Parma 17 4 times!!
        Message 3 of 23 , Apr 9 1:49 PM
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          Snow in London is now all gone - as a matter of fact today it was like a summer's day - go figure.

          Carl - what's next for ELF?? I have read Parma 17 4 times!! Any Taliska coming down the line?

          Cheers, Andy

          "Carl F. Hostetter" <Aelfwine@...> wrote:
          --- In mythsoc@yahoogroups.com, WendellWag@... wrote:
          >
          > In a message dated 4/9/2008 10:20:10 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
          > jef.murray@... writes:
          >
          > Not only snow in London, but out in the Cotswalds,
          >
          > I lived in Gloucestershire for three years. Snow in early April is rare.
          > Six inches of snow is downright bizarre.

          Sounds like Al Gore was in town, giving a talk on global warming....






          Andrew Higgins
          asthiggins@...
          07710953556 (M)
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          Blackberry PIn 20150592

          "Alles ist nach seiner Art, an ihr wirst du nichts andern." Siegfried Act 2
          http://wotanselvishmusings.blogspot.com
          http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=833145056



          ---------------------------------
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        • Diane Joy Baker
          Ouch! Good one, Carl! ---djb ... From: Carl F. Hostetter To: mythsoc@yahoogroups.com Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2008 4:32 PM Subject: [mythsoc] Re: The Eowyn
          Message 4 of 23 , Apr 9 7:35 PM
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            Ouch! Good one, Carl! ---djb
            ----- Original Message -----
            From: Carl F. Hostetter
            To: mythsoc@yahoogroups.com
            Sent: Wednesday, April 09, 2008 4:32 PM
            Subject: [mythsoc] Re: The Eowyn Challenge


            --- In mythsoc@yahoogroups.com, WendellWag@... wrote:
            >
            > In a message dated 4/9/2008 10:20:10 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
            > jef.murray@... writes:
            >
            > Not only snow in London, but out in the Cotswalds,
            >
            > I lived in Gloucestershire for three years. Snow in early April is rare.
            > Six inches of snow is downright bizarre.

            Sounds like Al Gore was in town, giving a talk on global warming....





            [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
          • David Bratman
            ... And he would point out that freak cold spells are one of the effects we can expect from what is known, for convenience, as global warming. I would not,
            Message 5 of 23 , Apr 9 11:32 PM
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              "Carl F. Hostetter" <Aelfwine@...> wrote:

              >--- In mythsoc@yahoogroups.com, WendellWag@... wrote:
              >
              >> I lived in Gloucestershire for three years. Snow in early April is rare.
              >> Six inches of snow is downright bizarre.
              >
              >Sounds like Al Gore was in town, giving a talk on global warming....

              And he would point out that freak cold spells are one of the effects we can expect from what is known, for convenience, as "global warming." I would not, even as a joke, imply that global warming means all the temperatures are just going to go up uniformly, because far too many people seem to really believe that it's of no more significance than turning your home thermostat up a notch.
            • Carl F. Hostetter
              ... Of course! Global warming is an absolutely unfalsifiable theory. (And climate change ... oo, that just gives me tingles!) ... OK, difference between us
              Message 6 of 23 , Apr 10 6:33 AM
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                On Apr 10, 2008, at 2:32 AM, David Bratman wrote:
                > "Carl F. Hostetter" <Aelfwine@...> wrote:
                >
                > >--- In mythsoc@yahoogroups.com, WendellWag@... wrote:
                > >
                > >> I lived in Gloucestershire for three years. Snow in early April
                > is rare.
                > >> Six inches of snow is downright bizarre.
                > >
                > >Sounds like Al Gore was in town, giving a talk on global warming....
                >
                > And he would point out that freak cold spells are one of the effects
                > we can expect from what is known, for convenience, as "global
                > warming."
                >

                Of course! Global warming is an absolutely unfalsifiable theory. (And
                "climate change"... oo, that just gives me tingles!)

                > I would not, even as a joke, imply that global warming means all the
                > temperatures are just going to go up uniformly,
                >

                OK, difference between us noted.

                This was meant as nothing more than a joke, playing off the well-known
                fact that Gore has more than once managed to pick the most
                unseasonably colds days to deliver major speeches about global
                warming. So laugh or not (as you chose), and let's move along.

                Carl
              • David Bratman
                ... No it isn t, and you know better than that. Global warming expects increasing unpredictability, increasing variability, and increasing violence of
                Message 7 of 23 , Apr 10 10:16 AM
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                  "Carl F. Hostetter" <Aelfwine@...> wrote:

                  >Of course! Global warming is an absolutely unfalsifiable theory.

                  No it isn't, and you know better than that. Global warming expects increasing unpredictability, increasing variability, and increasing violence of weather, within a general trend of warming which also passes beyond previous variability. If everything settled down and we got the same weather we always had, with fewer freak events, that would certainly falsify it.

                  Global warming, though, is a pattern, rather than single events. One big strange snowstorm in England in April is by itself neither evidence for, nor evidence against, global warming.

                  The climate system is subtle enough that some effects aren't predictable. For instance, one thing that's expected to be possible is that increased melting of the Arctic ice could cause enough cold water to drift south to disrupt the Gulf Stream. That could plunge Europe into Canadian levels of coldness, or even an ice age, at the same time that the globe is warming. We don't know if that would happen, but it might.

                  But it's a mistake to deny that the pattern of increased warming and variability is very clear.
                • Carl F. Hostetter
                  Sigh. OK. Please let the record show that I tried. ... and ... Your confidence in knowing what constitutes settled down and the same weather we always had
                  Message 8 of 23 , Apr 10 11:03 AM
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                    Sigh. OK. Please let the record show that I tried.

                    --- In mythsoc@yahoogroups.com, David Bratman <dbratman@...> wrote:
                    >
                    > If everything settled down and we got the same weather we always had, with fewer freak
                    > events, that would certainly falsify it.

                    and

                    > But it's a mistake to deny that the pattern of increased warming and variability is very
                    > clear.

                    Your confidence in knowing what constitutes "settled down" and "the same weather we
                    always had" and "freak events" is pretty remarkable, given how recent our ability to detect,
                    measure, and track these things globally is a _very_ recent phenomenon. Prior to the past
                    few decades, our data for such things is almost purely inferential and anecdotal, and
                    _highly_ sensitive to the assumptions that go into characterizing, weighting, and assessing
                    it. So too are the models that predict future climate, which have historically thus far failed
                    miserably. For example, they did not predict the leveling off and slight cooling we've had
                    in the past decade; for another example, they have failed miserably to predict the
                    temperature trends in the tropical atmosphere. And yet none of this counts as _any_
                    reason to think that the climate models, or the theory of global warming that is based on
                    them, might be wrong; indeed, if you think they might be, why, you're just a flat-earther
                    (says Al Gore).

                    > Global warming, though, is a pattern, rather than single events. One big strange
                    > snowstorm in England in April is by itself neither evidence for, nor evidence against,
                    > global warming.

                    Well, DUH! Who said that it did? AGAIN, this was what we call a "joke". Look it up.

                    But thanks for the lecture. I mean, it's not like I have science degree and work at NASA.

                    Oh wait, I DO!

                    Carl
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