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19653Re: [mythsoc] Re: The Eowyn Challenge

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  • David Bratman
    Apr 10, 2008
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      "Carl F. Hostetter" <Aelfwine@...> wrote:

      >Of course! Global warming is an absolutely unfalsifiable theory.

      No it isn't, and you know better than that. Global warming expects increasing unpredictability, increasing variability, and increasing violence of weather, within a general trend of warming which also passes beyond previous variability. If everything settled down and we got the same weather we always had, with fewer freak events, that would certainly falsify it.

      Global warming, though, is a pattern, rather than single events. One big strange snowstorm in England in April is by itself neither evidence for, nor evidence against, global warming.

      The climate system is subtle enough that some effects aren't predictable. For instance, one thing that's expected to be possible is that increased melting of the Arctic ice could cause enough cold water to drift south to disrupt the Gulf Stream. That could plunge Europe into Canadian levels of coldness, or even an ice age, at the same time that the globe is warming. We don't know if that would happen, but it might.

      But it's a mistake to deny that the pattern of increased warming and variability is very clear.
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