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Re: {MPML} 2010 AL30: Bright (14th mag) newly-discovered close approaching object

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  • Alan Harris
    ... Unlikely to be artificial, it s orbit doesn t resemble any useful spacecraft trajectory, and its encounter velocity with the Earth is not unusually low,
    Message 1 of 29 , Jan 11, 2010
      At 09:08 AM 1/11/2010, rmiles.btee@... wrote:
      >RE. M.P.E.C. 2010-A59 Issued 2010 Jan. 11, 15:43 UT
      >
      >......
      >The object is about H=27.0 and strangely has an orbital period of 1.00 yr
      >(Is it man-made I wonder). If it is a natural object then it may be about
      >10 meters across.

      Unlikely to be artificial, it's orbit doesn't resemble any useful
      spacecraft trajectory, and its encounter velocity with the Earth is not
      unusually low, around 9.5 km/sec "v_infinity". Perfectly ordinary
      Earth-crossing orbit.

      But do go have a look at it, should be a super-fast rotator, P < 2 h, maybe
      a lot under.

      Alan

      *******************************************************************
      Alan W. Harris
      Senior Research Scientist
      Space Science Institute
      4603 Orange Knoll Ave. Phone: 818-790-8291
      La Canada, CA 91011-3364 email: awharris@...
      *******************************************************************
    • Andrea Boattini
      Since this object is almost on an impact trajectory, this is a great example of how much warning time we have for an object with H = 27.0 Andrea The Catalina
      Message 2 of 29 , Jan 11, 2010
        Since this object is almost on an impact trajectory, this is a great
        example of how much warning time we have for an object with H = 27.0

        Andrea

        The Catalina Sky Survey

        On Mon, 11 Jan 2010, Alan Harris wrote:

        > At 09:08 AM 1/11/2010, rmiles.btee@... wrote:
        > >RE. M.P.E.C. 2010-A59 Issued 2010 Jan. 11, 15:43 UT
        > >
        > >......
        > >The object is about H=27.0 and strangely has an orbital period of 1.00 yr
        > >(Is it man-made I wonder). If it is a natural object then it may be about
        > >10 meters across.
        >
        > Unlikely to be artificial, it's orbit doesn't resemble any useful
        > spacecraft trajectory, and its encounter velocity with the Earth is not
        > unusually low, around 9.5 km/sec "v_infinity". Perfectly ordinary
        > Earth-crossing orbit.
        >
        > But do go have a look at it, should be a super-fast rotator, P < 2 h, maybe
        > a lot under.
        >
        > Alan
        >
        > *******************************************************************
        > Alan W. Harris
        > Senior Research Scientist
        > Space Science Institute
        > 4603 Orange Knoll Ave. Phone: 818-790-8291
        > La Canada, CA 91011-3364 email: awharris@...
        > *******************************************************************
        >
        >
      • P. Clay Sherrod
        Indeed.....visitors frequently ask me if I worry about the NEOs that I measure; my response: I don t worry about those that we keep up with....I am more
        Message 3 of 29 , Jan 11, 2010
          Indeed.....visitors frequently ask me if I worry about the NEOs that I measure; my
          response:
          "I don't worry about those that we keep up with....I am more concerned about the ones we
          never see coming."

          This is a very interesting object.

          Clay
          _____
          Dr. P. Clay Sherrod
          Arkansas Sky Observatories
          MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
          MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
          MPC H43 - Conway West
          http://www.arksky.org/

          ----- Original Message -----
          From: "Andrea Boattini" <boattini@...>
          To: "Alan Harris" <awharris@...>
          Cc: <rmiles.btee@...>; <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
          Sent: Monday, January 11, 2010 3:19 PM
          Subject: Re: {MPML} 2010 AL30: Bright (14th mag) newly-discovered close approaching object


          >
          > Since this object is almost on an impact trajectory, this is a great
          > example of how much warning time we have for an object with H = 27.0
          >
          > Andrea
          >
          > The Catalina Sky Survey
          >
          > On Mon, 11 Jan 2010, Alan Harris wrote:
          >
          >> At 09:08 AM 1/11/2010, rmiles.btee@... wrote:
          >> >RE. M.P.E.C. 2010-A59 Issued 2010 Jan. 11, 15:43 UT
          >> >
          >> >......
          >> >The object is about H=27.0 and strangely has an orbital period of 1.00 yr
          >> >(Is it man-made I wonder). If it is a natural object then it may be about
          >> >10 meters across.
          >>
          >> Unlikely to be artificial, it's orbit doesn't resemble any useful
          >> spacecraft trajectory, and its encounter velocity with the Earth is not
          >> unusually low, around 9.5 km/sec "v_infinity". Perfectly ordinary
          >> Earth-crossing orbit.
          >>
          >> But do go have a look at it, should be a super-fast rotator, P < 2 h, maybe
          >> a lot under.
          >>
          >> Alan
          >>
          >> *******************************************************************
          >> Alan W. Harris
          >> Senior Research Scientist
          >> Space Science Institute
          >> 4603 Orange Knoll Ave. Phone: 818-790-8291
          >> La Canada, CA 91011-3364 email: awharris@...
          >> *******************************************************************
          >>
          >>
          >
          >
          >
          >
          > ------------------------------------
          >
          > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
          >
          > Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with the stipulation
          > that MPML and the originating author are cited as the source of the information.Yahoo!
          > Groups Links
          >
          >
          >
          >
          >
        • Alan Harris
          And also a great example of most objects coming from the solar or anti-solar (opposition) direction. This one is only 15 deg off of the exact anti-solar
          Message 4 of 29 , Jan 11, 2010
            And also a great example of most objects coming from the solar or
            anti-solar (opposition) direction. This one is only 15 deg off of the
            exact anti-solar direction.

            At 01:19 PM 1/11/2010, Andrea Boattini wrote:

            >Since this object is almost on an impact trajectory, this is a great
            >example of how much warning time we have for an object with H = 27.0
            >
            >Andrea
            >
            >The Catalina Sky Survey
            >
            >On Mon, 11 Jan 2010, Alan Harris wrote:
            >
            > > At 09:08 AM 1/11/2010, rmiles.btee@... wrote:
            > > >RE. M.P.E.C. 2010-A59 Issued 2010 Jan. 11, 15:43 UT
            > > >
            > > >......
            > > >The object is about H=27.0 and strangely has an orbital period of 1.00 yr
            > > >(Is it man-made I wonder). If it is a natural object then it may be about
            > > >10 meters across.
            > >
            > > Unlikely to be artificial, it's orbit doesn't resemble any useful
            > > spacecraft trajectory, and its encounter velocity with the Earth is not
            > > unusually low, around 9.5 km/sec "v_infinity". Perfectly ordinary
            > > Earth-crossing orbit.
            > >
            > > But do go have a look at it, should be a super-fast rotator, P < 2 h, maybe
            > > a lot under.
            > >
            > > Alan
            > >
            > > *******************************************************************
            > > Alan W. Harris
            > > Senior Research Scientist
            > > Space Science Institute
            > > 4603 Orange Knoll Ave. Phone: 818-790-8291
            > > La Canada, CA 91011-3364 email: awharris@...
            > > *******************************************************************
            > >
            > >

            *******************************************************************
            Alan W. Harris
            Senior Research Scientist
            Space Science Institute
            4603 Orange Knoll Ave. Phone: 818-790-8291
            La Canada, CA 91011-3364 email: awharris@...
            *******************************************************************
          • P. Clay Sherrod
            Here is one of my favorites that I use to explain the plans we have in place in case of pending impact. ... From: Alan Harris To:
            Message 5 of 29 , Jan 11, 2010
              Here is one of my favorites that I use to explain the plans we have in place in case of
              pending impact.


              ----- Original Message -----
              From: "Alan Harris" <awharris@...>
              To: <rmiles.btee@...>; <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
              Sent: Monday, January 11, 2010 2:29 PM
              Subject: Re: {MPML} 2010 AL30: Bright (14th mag) newly-discovered close approaching object


              > At 09:08 AM 1/11/2010, rmiles.btee@... wrote:
              >>RE. M.P.E.C. 2010-A59 Issued 2010 Jan. 11, 15:43 UT
              >>
              >>......
              >>The object is about H=27.0 and strangely has an orbital period of 1.00 yr
              >>(Is it man-made I wonder). If it is a natural object then it may be about
              >>10 meters across.
              >
              > Unlikely to be artificial, it's orbit doesn't resemble any useful
              > spacecraft trajectory, and its encounter velocity with the Earth is not
              > unusually low, around 9.5 km/sec "v_infinity". Perfectly ordinary
              > Earth-crossing orbit.
              >
              > But do go have a look at it, should be a super-fast rotator, P < 2 h, maybe
              > a lot under.
              >
              > Alan
              >
              > *******************************************************************
              > Alan W. Harris
              > Senior Research Scientist
              > Space Science Institute
              > 4603 Orange Knoll Ave. Phone: 818-790-8291
              > La Canada, CA 91011-3364 email: awharris@...
              > *******************************************************************
              >
              >
              >
              > ------------------------------------
              >
              > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
              >
              > Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with the stipulation
              > that MPML and the originating author are cited as the source of the information.Yahoo!
              > Groups Links
              >
              >
              >
              >
              >


              [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
            • Scotty Degenhardt
              Richard, Cheers and good to hear of this! Is there a place for us newcomers to find the ephemeris for this object? Those of us that can do video astrometry
              Message 6 of 29 , Jan 11, 2010
                Richard,

                Cheers and good to hear of this! Is there a place for us newcomers to
                find the ephemeris for this object? Those of us that can do video
                astrometry might want a shot at this object, but I personally do not
                know how to locate current ephemeris to know exactly where to find the
                object.

                Thanks!

                Scotty

                Columbia, TN USA
                http://scottysmightymini.com/
                http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
                scotty@...
                888-687-5444 toll free to my cell



                rmiles.btee@... wrote:
                >
                >
                > RE. M.P.E.C. 2010-A59 Issued 2010 Jan. 11, 15:43 UT
                >
                > A short note to say that at last after a rather long wait, a newly
                > discovered object (asteroid?) has been found that will brighten to
                > 14th magnitude or possibly brighter and which will shortly pass within
                > about 0.34 lunar-distance of the Earth. Perigee is around January 13
                > 12:30 UT at a solar elongation of about 100 deg after which time
                > within a few hours it will move to low solar elongation, fade very
                > rapidly and become unobservable. However, before that happens it will
                > put on a good show both tonight (Jan 11/12) and especially tomorrow
                > night attaining a max. brightness of about V=13.8 on Jan 13 at 10:00
                > UT when it will be moving at about 10 arcsec/sec.
                >
                > The object is about H=27.0 and strangely has an orbital period of 1.00
                > yr (Is it man-made I wonder). If it is a natural object then it may be
                > about 10 meters across.
                >
                > Richard Miles
                > Director, Asteroids and Remote Planets Section
                > British Astronomical Association
                >
                >


                [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
              • Gerhard Dangl
                Hello all, here is my page with local data but also a video animation of 2010 AL30 near Earth fly by. http://www.dangl.at/2010/2010_al30/2010_al30.htm
                Message 7 of 29 , Jan 11, 2010
                  Hello all,

                  here is my page with local data but also a video animation of 2010 AL30 near
                  Earth fly by.
                  http://www.dangl.at/2010/2010_al30/2010_al30.htm

                  Unfortunately I will not be able to record this event due to bad weather
                  conditions.

                  Regards
                  Gerhard
                  www.dangl.at
                • Patrick Wiggins
                  I managed to get a few images of 2010 AL30 tonight which measured as follows: K10A30L C2010 01 12.27905 07 39 05.14 +09 31 49.8 17.0 718
                  Message 8 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                    I managed to get a few images of 2010 AL30 tonight which measured as follows:

                    K10A30L C2010 01 12.27905 07 39 05.14 +09 31 49.8 17.0 718
                    K10A30L C2010 01 12.28014 07 39 03.21 +09 31 54.6 17.0 718
                    K10A30L C2010 01 12.28124 07 39 01.34 +09 31 59.5 17.0 718
                    K10A30L C2010 01 12.28233 07 38 59.40 +09 32 03.7 17.0 718
                    K10A30L C2010 01 12.28343 07 38 57.55 +09 32 07.4 17.1 718
                    K10A30L C2010 01 12.28562 07 38 53.73 +09 32 16.2 17.2 718
                    K10A30L C2010 01 12.28671 07 38 51.72 +09 32 21.0 17.4 718
                    K10A30L C2010 01 12.28781 07 38 49.80 +09 32 25.4 17.5 718

                    If the above is to be believed the target dimmed half a magnitude in just a few minutes.

                    Is that possible or did I measure something wrong?

                    patrick
                    718
                  • Andrea Milani
                    try our NEODyS site, at either http://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys/ or http://unicorn.eis.uva.es/neodys/ just type 2010AL30 in the small Go to NEA slot on the
                    Message 9 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                      try our NEODyS site, at either

                      http://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys/

                      or

                      http://unicorn.eis.uva.es/neodys/

                      just type 2010AL30 in the small "Go to NEA" slot on the top right, then
                      follow either the "ephemerides" or the "obs prediction" link.

                      Andrea

                      On Mon, 11 Jan 2010, Scotty Degenhardt wrote:

                      >  
                      >
                      > Richard,
                      >
                      > Cheers and good to hear of this! Is there a place for us newcomers to
                      > find the ephemeris for this object? Those of us that can do video
                      > astrometry might want a shot at this object, but I personally do not
                      > know how to locate current ephemeris to know exactly where to find the
                      > object.
                      >
                      > Thanks!
                      >
                      > Scotty
                      >
                      > Columbia, TN USA
                      > http://scottysmightymini.com/
                      > http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
                      > scotty@...
                      > 888-687-5444 toll free to my cell
                      >
                      > rmiles.btee@... wrote:
                      > >
                      > >
                      > > RE. M.P.E.C. 2010-A59 Issued 2010 Jan. 11, 15:43 UT
                      > >
                      > > A short note to say that at last after a rather long wait, a newly
                      > > discovered object (asteroid?) has been found that will brighten to
                      > > 14th magnitude or possibly brighter and which will shortly pass within
                      > > about 0.34 lunar-distance of the Earth. Perigee is around January 13
                      > > 12:30 UT at a solar elongation of about 100 deg after which time
                      > > within a few hours it will move to low solar elongation, fade very
                      > > rapidly and become unobservable. However, before that happens it will
                      > > put on a good show both tonight (Jan 11/12) and especially tomorrow
                      > > night attaining a max. brightness of about V=13.8 on Jan 13 at 10:00
                      > > UT when it will be moving at about 10 arcsec/sec.
                      > >
                      > > The object is about H=27.0 and strangely has an orbital period of 1.00
                      > > yr (Is it man-made I wonder). If it is a natural object then it may be
                      > > about 10 meters across.
                      > >
                      > > Richard Miles
                      > > Director, Asteroids and Remote Planets Section
                      > > British Astronomical Association
                      > >
                      > >
                      >
                      > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                      >
                      >
                      >
                      >

                      ================================================
                      Andrea Milani Comparetti
                      Dipartimento di Matematica
                      Piazzale B. Pontecorvo 5
                      56127 PISA ITALY

                      tel. +39-050-2213254 fax +39-050-2213224
                      cellular phone +39-349-4482751
                      E-mail: milani@...
                      WWW: http://adams.dm.unipi.it/~milani/
                      ================================================

                      [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                    • Alan Harris
                      ... Entirely possible, even expected, but then again, there s Murphy s law.... I hope we can get enough photometry to verify the super-fast rotation. I m
                      Message 10 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                        At 12:10 AM 1/12/2010, Patrick Wiggins wrote:

                        >If the above is to be believed the target dimmed half a magnitude in just
                        >a few minutes.
                        >
                        >Is that possible or did I measure something wrong?

                        Entirely possible, even expected, but then again, there's Murphy's
                        law.... I hope we can get enough photometry to verify the super-fast
                        rotation. I'm sure it will be a big help to the radar folks to know that
                        in advance.

                        Cheers,

                        Alan

                        *******************************************************************
                        Alan W. Harris
                        Senior Research Scientist
                        Space Science Institute
                        4603 Orange Knoll Ave. Phone: 818-790-8291
                        La Canada, CA 91011-3364 email: awharris@...
                        *******************************************************************
                      • Scibuff
                        Have been looking everywhere I can think of (CFA/MPC, google, etc) but can t find the answer to who/where discovered the asteroid? Any details about the
                        Message 11 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                          Have been looking everywhere I can think of (CFA/MPC, google, etc) but can't find the answer to who/where discovered the asteroid? Any details about the discovery?

                          Thank you

                          --- In mpml@yahoogroups.com, "rmiles.btee@..." <rmiles.btee@...> wrote:
                          >
                          > RE. M.P.E.C. 2010-A59 Issued 2010 Jan. 11, 15:43 UT
                          >
                          > A short note to say that at last after a rather long wait, a newly discovered object (asteroid?) has been found that will brighten to 14th magnitude or possibly brighter and which will shortly pass within about 0.34 lunar-distance of the Earth. Perigee is around January 13 12:30 UT at a solar elongation of about 100 deg after which time within a few hours it will move to low solar elongation, fade very rapidly and become unobservable. However, before that happens it will put on a good show both tonight (Jan 11/12) and especially tomorrow night attaining a max. brightness of about V=13.8 on Jan 13 at 10:00 UT when it will be moving at about 10 arcsec/sec.
                          >
                          > The object is about H=27.0 and strangely has an orbital period of 1.00 yr (Is it man-made I wonder). If it is a natural object then it may be about 10 meters across.
                          >
                          > Richard Miles
                          > Director, Asteroids and Remote Planets Section
                          > British Astronomical Association
                          >
                        • walcom77
                          ... 2010 AL30 has been discovered by Linear survey on Jan. 10, 2010 704 Lincoln Laboratory ETS, New Mexico. Observers M. Blythe, G. Spitz, R. Brungard, J.
                          Message 12 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                            > Have been looking everywhere I can think of (CFA/MPC, google, etc) but can't find the answer to who/where discovered the > asteroid? Any details about the discovery?

                            2010 AL30 has been discovered by Linear survey on Jan. 10, 2010

                            704 Lincoln Laboratory ETS, New Mexico. Observers M. Blythe, G.
                            Spitz, R. Brungard, J. Paige, P. Festler. 1.0-m f/2.15 reflector +
                            CCD.

                            For more information:

                            http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/mpec/K10/K10A59.html

                            http://bit.ly/8DzAfN

                            Regards,

                            Ernesto
                            http://remanzacco.blogspot.com
                            http://twitter.com/comets77
                          • Dave Tholen
                            ... MPEC 2010-A59 shows LINEAR as the discoverer (code 704).
                            Message 13 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                              > Have been looking everywhere I can think of (CFA/MPC, google, etc)
                              > but can't find the answer to who/where discovered the asteroid? Any
                              > details about the discovery?

                              MPEC 2010-A59 shows LINEAR as the discoverer (code 704).
                            • Bill J Gray
                              Hi Andrea, ...Since this object is almost on an impact trajectory, this is a great example of how much warning time we have for an object with H = 27...
                              Message 14 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                Hi Andrea,

                                "...Since this object is almost on an impact trajectory, this is a great
                                example of how much warning time we have for an object with H = 27..."

                                True: had it been about to hit a populated area, we'd have had
                                enough time, probably, just barely, to tell people in the impact
                                area to go someplace else. To me, that's the good news about these
                                small objects. We don't get much warning, but we only need enough
                                warning to persuade people to go someplace else.

                                Of course, that's in theory. I wonder how many people would
                                actually leave their homes after getting such a warning... but the
                                psychology of such matters may be off-topic for this list!

                                -- Bill
                              • Dave Herald
                                A matter of curiosity. With a little less than 24hrs to closest approach, what is the uncertainty in the orbit as it would translate to an impact point. For
                                Message 15 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                  A matter of curiosity. With a little less than 24hrs to closest approach, what is the uncertainty in
                                  the orbit as it would translate to an impact point. For example (and using this asteroid as an
                                  example) if the impact point was currently predicted to be the town square of city X, what is the
                                  current uncertainty? Would people have to flee by 100's of km, or 10's of km? And are the
                                  probabilities such that at this point in time the safest option might be to go no-where (to avoid
                                  going to the 'actual' impact location)?

                                  Of course, if the impact was predicted to be near any major population center with less than 24 hrs
                                  notice, issues of panic and grid-lock might make evacuation a moot point.....


                                  Dave Herald
                                  Canberra, Australia


                                  ----- Original Message -----
                                  From: "Bill J Gray" <pluto@...>
                                  To: "Andrea Boattini" <boattini@...>
                                  Cc: <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
                                  Sent: Wednesday, January 13, 2010 12:44 AM
                                  Subject: Re: {MPML} 2010 AL30: Bright (14th mag) newly-discovered close approaching object


                                  Hi Andrea,

                                  "...Since this object is almost on an impact trajectory, this is a great
                                  example of how much warning time we have for an object with H = 27..."

                                  True: had it been about to hit a populated area, we'd have had
                                  enough time, probably, just barely, to tell people in the impact
                                  area to go someplace else. To me, that's the good news about these
                                  small objects. We don't get much warning, but we only need enough
                                  warning to persuade people to go someplace else.

                                  Of course, that's in theory. I wonder how many people would
                                  actually leave their homes after getting such a warning... but the
                                  psychology of such matters may be off-topic for this list!

                                  -- Bill


                                  ------------------------------------

                                  ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

                                  Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with the stipulation that MPML
                                  and the originating author are cited as the source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
                                • Terrence R. Redding, Ph.D.
                                  It is worth noting however, even if 2010 AL30 did hit Earth, it would most likely explode high in the atmosphere (with the energy of a small nuclear bomb),
                                  Message 16 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                    It is worth noting however, even if 2010 AL30 did hit Earth, it would
                                    most likely explode high in the atmosphere (with the energy of a small
                                    nuclear bomb), posing little danger to anyone on the ground. Impacts
                                    of this size occur on an annual basis.

                                    http://tinyurl.com/yh8thux

                                    Terry - W6LMJ - 14.287

                                    Terrence R. Redding, Ph.D.
                                    Redding Observatory South, West Palm Beach, Florida
                                    http://olt.net/learningstyle/Site_2/Learning_Style_Research.html
                                    How do amateur astronomers learn?

                                    American Association of Variable Star
                                    Observers (AAVSO): RTN http://www.aavso.org/


                                    On Jan 12, 2010, at 8:13 AM, Dave Tholen wrote:

                                    > > Have been looking everywhere I can think of (CFA/MPC, google, etc)
                                    > > but can't find the answer to who/where discovered the asteroid? Any
                                    > > details about the discovery?
                                    >
                                    > MPEC 2010-A59 shows LINEAR as the discoverer (code 704).
                                    >
                                    >



                                    [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                  • P. Clay Sherrod
                                    I disagree; with this assumed diameter and velocity it would certainly at least partially remain intact for impact. Not only that, but concussion waves if it
                                    Message 17 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                      I disagree; with this assumed diameter and velocity it would certainly at least partially
                                      remain intact for impact.
                                      Not only that, but concussion waves if it did indeed explode pre-impact, would be enough
                                      to cause danger to those below.

                                      Dr. Clay
                                      _____
                                      Arkansas Sky Observatories
                                      MPC H45 - Petit Jean Mountain South
                                      MPC H41 - Petit Jean Mountain
                                      MPC H43 - Conway West
                                      http://www.arksky.org/

                                      ----- Original Message -----
                                      From: "Terrence R. Redding, Ph.D." <tredding@...>
                                      To: "Dave Tholen" <tholen@...>
                                      Cc: <mpml@yahoogroups.com>
                                      Sent: Tuesday, January 12, 2010 10:00 AM
                                      Subject: Re: {MPML} Re: 2010 AL30: Bright (14th mag) newly-discovered close approaching
                                      object


                                      > It is worth noting however, even if 2010 AL30 did hit Earth, it would
                                      > most likely explode high in the atmosphere (with the energy of a small
                                      > nuclear bomb), posing little danger to anyone on the ground. Impacts
                                      > of this size occur on an annual basis.
                                      >
                                      > http://tinyurl.com/yh8thux
                                      >
                                      > Terry - W6LMJ - 14.287
                                      >
                                      > Terrence R. Redding, Ph.D.
                                      > Redding Observatory South, West Palm Beach, Florida
                                      > http://olt.net/learningstyle/Site_2/Learning_Style_Research.html
                                      > How do amateur astronomers learn?
                                      >
                                      > American Association of Variable Star
                                      > Observers (AAVSO): RTN http://www.aavso.org/
                                      >
                                      >
                                      > On Jan 12, 2010, at 8:13 AM, Dave Tholen wrote:
                                      >
                                      >> > Have been looking everywhere I can think of (CFA/MPC, google, etc)
                                      >> > but can't find the answer to who/where discovered the asteroid? Any
                                      >> > details about the discovery?
                                      >>
                                      >> MPEC 2010-A59 shows LINEAR as the discoverer (code 704).
                                      >>
                                      >>
                                      >
                                      >
                                      >
                                      > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                      >
                                      >
                                      >
                                      > ------------------------------------
                                      >
                                      > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                                      >
                                      > Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with the stipulation
                                      > that MPML and the originating author are cited as the source of the information.Yahoo!
                                      > Groups Links
                                      >
                                      >
                                      >
                                      >
                                      >
                                    • Andrea Boattini
                                      Hi Bill, Thanks for your note. The first problem of this matter is that I was the only one doing follow-up on that night; in fact, the next observations came
                                      Message 18 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                        Hi Bill,

                                        Thanks for your note. The first problem of this matter is that I was the
                                        only one doing follow-up on that night; in fact, the next observations
                                        came from Australia. The only reason I was using a 1.5-m survey telescope
                                        to follow-up a 18.5 object moving at only about 1 deg/day was because I
                                        had thick cirrus clouds and there was not much else I could do around that
                                        time. But under clear sky conditions I would have not gone after it; in
                                        fact, at the beginning of the night Richard Kowalski and I agreed that he
                                        would have used the Schmidt if necessary. But still, under clear
                                        conditions it's a waste of resources to follow up such bright objects with
                                        survey telescopes. So, why nobody else was observing such a bright object?

                                        But now all of the sudden look at how many people are doing follow-up.
                                        I'm glad of the increasing attention, but there is a psycological aspect
                                        that needs to be addressed and improved about follow-up. We had the same
                                        problem with 2009 VA where nobody was observing a very bright object from
                                        the American continent (which it was found at the beginning of the night).
                                        Nobody from the Asian continent either. Because the object was coming
                                        towards us by the time it became night in Europe observers had to struggle
                                        with very large sky uncertainty and, in fact, it was not found during the
                                        closest approach.

                                        ciao,
                                        Andrea

                                        The Catalina Sky Survey

                                        On Tue, 12 Jan 2010, Bill J Gray wrote:

                                        > Hi Andrea,
                                        >
                                        > "...Since this object is almost on an impact trajectory, this is a great
                                        > example of how much warning time we have for an object with H = 27..."
                                        >
                                        > True: had it been about to hit a populated area, we'd have had
                                        > enough time, probably, just barely, to tell people in the impact
                                        > area to go someplace else. To me, that's the good news about these
                                        > small objects. We don't get much warning, but we only need enough
                                        > warning to persuade people to go someplace else.
                                        >
                                        > Of course, that's in theory. I wonder how many people would
                                        > actually leave their homes after getting such a warning... but the
                                        > psychology of such matters may be off-topic for this list!
                                        >
                                        > -- Bill
                                        >
                                      • Richard Kowalski
                                        Bill, I know of a large number of meteorite hunters and collectors that would be rushing towards the impact zone for an object this size and smaller. I m not
                                        Message 19 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                          Bill,

                                          I know of a large number of meteorite hunters and collectors that would be
                                          rushing towards the impact zone for an object this size and smaller.

                                          I'm not sure how close I'd want to be to a 60 meter object's impact point, but a
                                          few 10s of kilometers should be sufficient to get a great seat for the show and
                                          then be on the scene to recover fragments in very short order...

                                          Richard



                                          Bill J Gray wrote:
                                          > Hi Andrea,
                                          >
                                          > "...Since this object is almost on an impact trajectory, this is a great
                                          > example of how much warning time we have for an object with H = 27..."
                                          >
                                          > True: had it been about to hit a populated area, we'd have had
                                          > enough time, probably, just barely, to tell people in the impact
                                          > area to go someplace else. To me, that's the good news about these
                                          > small objects. We don't get much warning, but we only need enough
                                          > warning to persuade people to go someplace else.
                                          >
                                          > Of course, that's in theory. I wonder how many people would
                                          > actually leave their homes after getting such a warning... but the
                                          > psychology of such matters may be off-topic for this list!
                                          >
                                          > -- Bill
                                          >
                                          >
                                          > ------------------------------------
                                          >
                                          > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                                          >
                                          > Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
                                          >
                                          >
                                          >


                                          --
                                          Richard Kowalski
                                          Catalina Sky Survey
                                          Lunar and Planetary Laboratory
                                          University of Arizona
                                          Tucson, AZ 85721
                                        • Richard Kowalski
                                          ... Sorry I meant 60 foot Richard
                                          Message 20 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                            Richard Kowalski wrote:
                                            > Bill,
                                            >
                                            > I know of a large number of meteorite hunters and collectors that would be
                                            > rushing towards the impact zone for an object this size and smaller.
                                            >
                                            > I'm not sure how close I'd want to be to a 60 meter...


                                            Sorry I meant 60 foot

                                            Richard
                                          • Alain
                                            Unfortunately most meteorite hunters are not equipped with deep sea diving equipment. And this is what they would need most likely. But it is nice to have
                                            Message 21 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                              Unfortunately most meteorite hunters are not equipped with deep sea diving
                                              equipment.
                                              And this is what they would need most likely.
                                              But it is nice to have fantasm about all this.
                                              Alain

                                              -----Message d'origine-----
                                              De : mpml@yahoogroups.com [mailto:mpml@yahoogroups.com] De la part de
                                              Richard Kowalski
                                              Envoyé : mardi 12 janvier 2010 14:32
                                              À : MPML; Meteorite List
                                              Objet : Re: {MPML} 2010 AL30: Bright (14th mag) newly-discovered close
                                              approaching object

                                              Richard Kowalski wrote:
                                              > Bill,
                                              >
                                              > I know of a large number of meteorite hunters and collectors that
                                              > would be rushing towards the impact zone for an object this size and
                                              smaller.
                                              >
                                              > I'm not sure how close I'd want to be to a 60 meter...


                                              Sorry I meant 60 foot

                                              Richard






                                              ------------------------------------

                                              ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

                                              Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with the
                                              stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the source of
                                              the information.Yahoo! Groups Links




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                                            • wlodarczyk_i
                                              There are new ephemerides of the asteroid 2010AL30 at NEODyS site: http://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.0&n=2010AL30 from date of orbit
                                              Message 22 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                                There are new ephemerides of the asteroid 2010AL30 at NEODyS site:
                                                http://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys/index.php?pc=1.1.3.0&n=2010AL30
                                                from date of orbit computation: Jan 12 18:50.
                                                Best regards,
                                                Ireneusz Wlodarczyk
                                                553 Chorzow


                                                --- In mpml@yahoogroups.com, Andrea Milani <milani@...> wrote:
                                                >
                                                >
                                                > try our NEODyS site, at either
                                                >
                                                > http://newton.dm.unipi.it/neodys/
                                                >
                                                > or
                                                >
                                                > http://unicorn.eis.uva.es/neodys/
                                                >
                                                > just type 2010AL30 in the small "Go to NEA" slot on the top right, then
                                                > follow either the "ephemerides" or the "obs prediction" link.
                                                >
                                                > Andrea
                                                >
                                                > On Mon, 11 Jan 2010, Scotty Degenhardt wrote:
                                                >
                                                > >  
                                                > >
                                                > > Richard,
                                                > >
                                                > > Cheers and good to hear of this! Is there a place for us newcomers to
                                                > > find the ephemeris for this object? Those of us that can do video
                                                > > astrometry might want a shot at this object, but I personally do not
                                                > > know how to locate current ephemeris to know exactly where to find the
                                                > > object.
                                                > >
                                                > > Thanks!
                                                > >
                                                > > Scotty
                                                > >
                                                > > Columbia, TN USA
                                                > > http://scottysmightymini.com/
                                                > > http://www.ustream.tv/channel/scottys-sky
                                                > > scotty@...
                                                > > 888-687-5444 toll free to my cell
                                                > >
                                                > > rmiles.btee@... wrote:
                                                > > >
                                                > > >
                                                > > > RE. M.P.E.C. 2010-A59 Issued 2010 Jan. 11, 15:43 UT
                                                > > >
                                                > > > A short note to say that at last after a rather long wait, a newly
                                                > > > discovered object (asteroid?) has been found that will brighten to
                                                > > > 14th magnitude or possibly brighter and which will shortly pass within
                                                > > > about 0.34 lunar-distance of the Earth. Perigee is around January 13
                                                > > > 12:30 UT at a solar elongation of about 100 deg after which time
                                                > > > within a few hours it will move to low solar elongation, fade very
                                                > > > rapidly and become unobservable. However, before that happens it will
                                                > > > put on a good show both tonight (Jan 11/12) and especially tomorrow
                                                > > > night attaining a max. brightness of about V=13.8 on Jan 13 at 10:00
                                                > > > UT when it will be moving at about 10 arcsec/sec.
                                                > > >
                                                > > > The object is about H=27.0 and strangely has an orbital period of 1.00
                                                > > > yr (Is it man-made I wonder). If it is a natural object then it may be
                                                > > > about 10 meters across.
                                                > > >
                                                > > > Richard Miles
                                                > > > Director, Asteroids and Remote Planets Section
                                                > > > British Astronomical Association
                                                > > >
                                                > > >
                                                > >
                                                > > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                                > >
                                                > >
                                                > >
                                                > >
                                                >
                                                > ================================================
                                                > Andrea Milani Comparetti
                                                > Dipartimento di Matematica
                                                > Piazzale B. Pontecorvo 5
                                                > 56127 PISA ITALY
                                                >
                                                > tel. +39-050-2213254 fax +39-050-2213224
                                                > cellular phone +39-349-4482751
                                                > E-mail: milani@...
                                                > WWW: http://adams.dm.unipi.it/~milani/
                                                > ================================================
                                                >
                                                > [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                                >
                                              • Bill J Gray
                                                Hi Dave, ...A matter of curiosity. With a little less than 24hrs to closest approach, what is the uncertainty in the orbit as it would translate to an impact
                                                Message 23 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                                  Hi Dave,

                                                  "...A matter of curiosity. With a little less than 24hrs to
                                                  closest approach, what is the uncertainty in the orbit as it
                                                  would translate to an impact point."

                                                  I can't use this object as an impact example, of course, but
                                                  looking at the error in its perigee distance can serve as a sort of
                                                  one-dimensional example.

                                                  I got the currently-available astrometry for this object from

                                                  http://www.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/ECS/MPCOBS/MPCOBS.html

                                                  (now available without a subscription, by the way... thank you,
                                                  MPC!) and got 152 observations, yielding q = 129021 +/- 15 km.

                                                  This object started out with five observations each from (704)
                                                  and (G96), spanning about a day. With those, q = 127000 +/- 15000 km.
                                                  I'd normally expect better, but it's a 70-minute arc from (704) plus
                                                  a three-minute arc from (G96). At that point, I noticed it was
                                                  apt to come close enough to be interesting, but not dangerous
                                                  (no impact risk).

                                                  Half a day later, (E16) added a 20-minute arc. This really
                                                  firmed things up, adding some parallax to the solution: a solution
                                                  including this data gets us q=129060 +/- 150 km.

                                                  At this point, we've got about 1.5 days of data and would be
                                                  1.5 days away from the impact, and have an "actionable" prediction.

                                                  However, in a real-world impact case, I think things would
                                                  be different. Had the initial orbit from (704) looked like a
                                                  potential impact, somebody would probably have posted to that
                                                  effect on this list, and more astrometry would have been gathered
                                                  earlier on. (As happened with 2008 TC3. After I pointed out that
                                                  it was a likely impactor, data flowed in _very_ quickly: Cristovao
                                                  Jacques almost immediately got data from (D90), and Gordon Garradd
                                                  from (E12), and we went right away from "90% impact probability,
                                                  somewhere" to "it'll hit in Northern Sudan".)

                                                  -- Bill
                                                • Alan Harris
                                                  ... Well, not quite, more like once per 20 years. But in perspective, objects this size pass this close to the Earth (~100,000 km) about once a month, so the
                                                  Message 24 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                                    At 08:00 AM 1/12/2010, Terrence R. Redding, Ph.D. wrote:
                                                    >It is worth noting however, even if 2010 AL30 did hit Earth, it would
                                                    >most likely explode high in the atmosphere (with the energy of a small
                                                    >nuclear bomb), posing little danger to anyone on the ground. Impacts
                                                    >of this size occur on an annual basis.

                                                    Well, not quite, more like once per 20 years. But in perspective, objects
                                                    this size pass this close to the Earth (~100,000 km) about once a month, so
                                                    the most unusual thing about 2010 AL30 is that we were lucky enough to spot
                                                    it in advance.

                                                    *******************************************************************
                                                    Alan W. Harris
                                                    Senior Research Scientist
                                                    Space Science Institute
                                                    4603 Orange Knoll Ave. Phone: 818-790-8291
                                                    La Canada, CA 91011-3364 email: awharris@...
                                                    *******************************************************************
                                                  • Richard Kowalski
                                                    ... I suspect the frequency is a bit higher since we spot one about once a month and it takes about 2x to 3x the typical length of apparition for us to cover
                                                    Message 25 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                                      Alan Harris wrote:

                                                      >
                                                      > Well, not quite, more like once per 20 years. But in perspective, objects
                                                      > this size pass this close to the Earth (~100,000 km) about once a month, so
                                                      > the most unusual thing about 2010 AL30 is that we were lucky enough to spot
                                                      > it in advance.

                                                      I suspect the frequency is a bit higher since we spot one about once a month and
                                                      it takes about 2x to 3x the typical length of apparition for us to cover the
                                                      entire visible night sky.


                                                      --
                                                      Richard Kowalski
                                                      Catalina Sky Survey
                                                      Lunar and Planetary Laboratory
                                                      University of Arizona
                                                      Tucson, AZ 85721
                                                    • Charles Bell
                                                      There are over 260 versions of this story posted now on news http://news.google.com/news/more?pz=1&ned=us&ncl=dtiEdXna8okR_BM8wYkIYI2IWV09M Just read one on
                                                      Message 26 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                                        There are over 260 versions of this story posted now on news

                                                        http://news.google.com/news/more?pz=1&ned=us&ncl=dtiEdXna8okR_BM8wYkIYI2IWV09M

                                                        Just read one on Wired News that is quoting people who have posted here

                                                        http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/01/new-asteroid/
                                                        plus images that have been posted

                                                        [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
                                                      • Alan Harris
                                                        I don t think you spot one that big that gets that close once per month. Most of the ones that size that you spot monthly stay out around the distance you
                                                        Message 27 of 29 , Jan 12, 2010
                                                          I don't think you spot one that big that gets that close once per
                                                          month. Most of the ones that size that you spot monthly stay out around
                                                          the distance you first see them, around 0.02 AU, not in to 0.001 AU. You
                                                          only get those every few years.

                                                          At 01:52 PM 1/12/2010, Richard Kowalski wrote:
                                                          >Alan Harris wrote:
                                                          >
                                                          > >
                                                          > > Well, not quite, more like once per 20 years. But in perspective, objects
                                                          > > this size pass this close to the Earth (~100,000 km) about once a
                                                          > month, so
                                                          > > the most unusual thing about 2010 AL30 is that we were lucky enough to
                                                          > spot
                                                          > > it in advance.
                                                          >
                                                          >I suspect the frequency is a bit higher since we spot one about once a
                                                          >month and
                                                          >it takes about 2x to 3x the typical length of apparition for us to cover the
                                                          >entire visible night sky.
                                                          >
                                                          >
                                                          >--
                                                          >Richard Kowalski
                                                          >Catalina Sky Survey
                                                          >Lunar and Planetary Laboratory
                                                          >University of Arizona
                                                          >Tucson, AZ 85721
                                                          >
                                                          >
                                                          >------------------------------------
                                                          >
                                                          >~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
                                                          >
                                                          >Posts to this list or information found within may be freely used, with
                                                          >the stipulation that MPML and the originating author are cited as the
                                                          >source of the information.Yahoo! Groups Links
                                                          >
                                                          >
                                                          >
                                                          *******************************************************************
                                                          Alan W. Harris
                                                          Senior Research Scientist
                                                          Space Science Institute
                                                          4603 Orange Knoll Ave. Phone: 818-790-8291
                                                          La Canada, CA 91011-3364 email: awharris@...
                                                          *******************************************************************
                                                        • Detlef.Koschny@esa.int
                                                          A colleague of mine working in our mission analysis section did a quick study on whether this could be the old Fregat upper stage we used to bring Venus
                                                          Message 28 of 29 , Jan 13, 2010
                                                            A colleague of mine working in our mission analysis section did a quick
                                                            study on whether this could be the old Fregat upper stage we used to bring
                                                            Venus Express to Venus. No final conclusion, but an interesting thought...

                                                            http://www.scilogs.eu/en/blog/go-for-launch/2010-01-12/close-asteroid-encounter-tomorrow

                                                            dvk
                                                            -------------------------------------------------------------
                                                            Detlef Koschny
                                                            ESA SRE-SM
                                                            Keplerlaan 1, NL-2201 AZ Noordwijk ZH
                                                            The Netherlands
                                                            (31) 71 565 4828, Office Ca110
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