Loading ...
Sorry, an error occurred while loading the content.
 

8TA9D69

Expand Messages
  • Andrea Milani
    Today the object with the provisional designation 8TA9D69 was submitted to impact monitoring by using the normal software of the NEODyS system, by using the
    Message 1 of 69 , Oct 6, 2008
      Today the object with the provisional designation 8TA9D69 was
      submitted to impact monitoring by using the normal software of the
      NEODyS system, by using the observations as reported by the MPC on the
      NEO Confirmation Page.

      The results were as follows (this is the Risk file in the usual format)

      Object: 8TA9D69

      date MJD sigma sigimp dist +/- width stretch p_RE exp. en. PS
      YYYY/MM (RE) (RE) RE/sig MT
      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      2008/10/07.116 54746.116 2.824 0.000 1.91 +/- 0.001 4.01E-03 9.98E-01 6.01E-04 1.69


      Based on 26 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers)
      from 2008/10/06.278 to 2008/10/06.643.

      Coordinates are given on the Target Plane
      Unit is one Earth radius, but impact cross section
      has radius between 2.02 and 2.02 Earth radii

      The probability of impact is, according to different computations done
      in slightly different ways, between 99.8% and 100%; in practice the
      impact can be considered sure and is for tonight. Our computation has
      already been confirmed independently by others, including the JPL NEO
      group (with which we consult in all relevant cases of possible
      impact).

      The other important result is that the confidence ellipse for the
      arrival of this object on the atmosphere is very small, thus it is
      possible to predict this atmospheric entry point within tens of
      kilometers. Unfortunately we are not equipped to do this computation
      on short notice, but others are doing this (some already have).

      The effect of this atmospheric impact will be the release, in either a
      single shot or maybe a sequence of explosions, of about 1 kiloton of
      energy. This means that the damage on the ground is expected to be
      zero. The location of these explosions is not easy to predict due to
      the atmospheric braking effects. The only concern is that they might
      be interpreted as something else, that is man-made explosions. Thus in
      this case, the earlier the public worldwide is aware that this is a
      natural phenomenon, which involves no risk, the better.

      The NEODys team

      Andrea Milani, Maria Eugenia Sansaturio, Fabrizio Bernardi, Giovanni B. Valsecchi

      ================================================
      Andrea Milani Comparetti
      Dipartimento di Matematica
      Piazzale B. Pontecorvo 5
      56127 PISA ITALY

      tel. +39-050-2213254 fax +39-050-2213224
      cellular phone +39-349-4482751
      E-mail: milani@...
      WWW: http://adams.dm.unipi.it/~milani/
      ================================================
    • Robert McNaught
      ... Light curves based on trails will be difficult to interpret with seeing changes also affecting the image brightness, but might tie in with other
      Message 69 of 69 , Oct 7, 2008
        On Tue, 7 Oct 2008, Korotkiy Stanislav wrote:

        > Our animation, images and light curve photometry of 2008 TC3.

        Light curves based on trails will be difficult to interpret with seeing
        changes also affecting the image brightness, but might tie in with
        other photometry.

        Overall, there should be a huge mass of data from this event and a
        conference devoted to it would seem quite appropriate at some point.

        Cheers, Rob
      Your message has been successfully submitted and would be delivered to recipients shortly.