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ENSO -- cirrus clouds and world impact

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  • Pawnfart
    ENSO -- cirrus clouds and its world impact Of course, methanogens play a role and there are feedbacks, and perhaps even a northwest coast dam impact,
    Message 1 of 702 , May 4, 2001
      ENSO -- cirrus clouds and its world impact
      <br><br>Of course, methanogens play a role and there are
      feedbacks, and perhaps even a northwest coast dam impact,
      but for now I just want to focus again on ocean
      currents, even without the idea of the role of flaring or
      volcanoes. <br><br>The following link again, is background
      to my sketch.
      <br><br><a href=http://www.oceansonline.com/images/currents.gif target=new>http://www.oceansonline.com/images/currents.gif</a> <br><br>I like this link because it is simple.
      Now, El Nino I WILL DEFINE AS simply a more southerly
      South Pacific gyre (Peru, South Equatorial, East
      Austrialian, and South Pacific currents) and a very strong
      Equatorial Countercurrent. At least that is what it does
      during the winter, with its affects felt somewhat
      downflow later, say, in the following summer. La Nina will
      be a weak Equatorial Countercurrent. <br><br>Now,
      let's apply what we know about Fleming. Now, something
      seems counterintuitive,no? I mean, if that Equatorial
      Countercurrent is strong, it is cuting across the magnetic field
      lines in the wrong direction to form cirrus, right? Uh,
      but more goes on here. As that water piles up in the
      East Pac west of C.A., it forms an arrow shaped body
      of water that seems to defy Lindzen's idea of iris.
      What the heck goes on. I will tell you--this water is
      spreading on the surface . . . essentially due West! It
      piles up and wants to flow either with the Peru to the
      South Equatorial or it curls northwest. Thus, you get
      super hot and cirrus making SSTs! <br><br>It gets
      better. The strong Equatorial Countercurrent will slow
      the North Pacific gyre, that in turn slows the Alaska
      current. So what about Alaska, you say? Look how much of
      the Alaska current heads West! Again, that will make
      cirrus, so if you slow the Alaska you dry out the trade
      wind that flows over it. <br><br>Further, you slow the
      South Equatorial, and less water runs down the East
      Australian or moves through Indionisia to the West
      Australian to the South Equatorial below India, thereby
      reducing the Indian Countercurrent and the Indian
      gyres--causing less west moving current there. <br><br>How does
      that jive with reality: <br><br>This, again, shows
      were MH fields are located--note the importance of the
      MH fields by the Alaska and where the Equtorial
      countercurrent curls toward Baja CA:
      <br><br><a href=http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html target=new>http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html</a> <br><br>Now, not what happens with these changes
      in terms of winter precip:
      <br><br><a href=http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/pmel-graphics/gif/winter.gif target=new>http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/pmel-graphics/gif/winter.gif</a> <br><br>I also find it interesting while some
      METS talk about "shear" and hurricanes, which I think
      is complete b s, that summer El Nino conditions
      result what you would expect if the greater flow went
      down some of these currents more. And as dry
      conditions visit, say, the Orinico basis, hurricanes are not
      as well insulated . . . now there is your shear:
      <br><br><a href=http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/pmel-graphics/gif/summer.gif target=new>http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/pmel-graphics/gif/summer.gif</a> <br><br>La Nina is even funner. Again, with a
      weak counter, you would have a strong South Equatorial
      and stronger west flow by Austrilia--which gets more
      rain. Further, the North Pacific gyres is stronger,
      which would make the Alaska stronger, and hence there
      will be more rainfall from cirrus production in the
      northwest, and this matches well with the data:
      <br><br><a href=http://www.wdc.ndin.net/calnina.html target=new>http://www.wdc.ndin.net/calnina.html</a>
    • b1blancer_29501
      On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That, coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
      Message 702 of 702 , Mar 1, 2002
        On Feb 28th, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field
        swung to a strong south-pointing orientation. That,
        coupled with an elevated solar wind speed and density,
        triggered a G-1 class geomagnetic storm. The result was
        some high latitude aurora. See this link for a
        photgraph of aurora observed over Quebec :
        <a href=http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg target=new>http://www.spaceweather.com/aurora/images/01mar02/Moussette2.jpg</a> . As of right now, there are 3 sunspot regions,
        namely 9839, 9842, and 9845, that appear to be capable
        of producing M-class flares. Regions 9839 and 9842
        are close to rotating out of view over the western
        limb of the solar disk. Sunspot region 9845, however,
        is close to the sun's central meridian. A rather
        large coronal hole is also approaching the sun's
        central meridian, and coming into an Earth-pointing
        position. High speed colar wind gusts are likely around the
        first of next week.<br><br>The current solar and
        geomagnetic conditions are :<br><br>NOAA sunspot number :
        153<br>SFI : 188<br>A index : 10<br>K index : 1<br><br>Solar
        wind speed : 372.3 km/sec<br>Solar wind density : 4.4
        protons/cc<br>Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa<br><br>IMF : 8.4
        nT<br>IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT North<br><br>Conditions for
        the last 24 hours : <br>Solar activity was low. The
        geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Stratwarm Alert
        exists Friday.<br><br>Forecast for the next 24 hours
        :<br>Solar activity will be low to moderate. The geomagnetic
        field will be quiet to unsettled.<br><br>Solar Activity
        Forecast :<br>Solar activity is expected to be low to
        moderate for the next three days. Region 9845 is a
        possible source for isolated M-class
        flares.<br><br>Geomagnetic activity forecast :<br>Geomagnetic field activity
        is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled, until
        the onset of high speed stream effects from a
        recurrent coronal hole begin to develop by day three of the
        forecast period. Isolated active conditions are
        anticipated thereafter.<br><br>Recent significant solar flare
        activity :<br>None
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