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Solar Activity Report for 6/12/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    Well, solar and geomagnetic activity can basically be summed up in one word : *YAWN* If it weren t for some coronal hole effects, it would be throughly
    Message 1 of 2 , Jun 12, 2002
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      Well, solar and geomagnetic activity can basically be summed up in one
      word : *YAWN* If it weren't for some coronal hole effects, it would
      be throughly uninteresting. As it is, the Earth is inside of a solar
      wind stream from a coronal hole that crossed the sun's central
      meridian a few days ago, and the solar wind speed and density are
      mildly elevated. Another coronal hole has just crossed the central
      meridian, and we should be seeing the solar wind gusts from that
      around the 14th. Although it has been conspicuously quiet thusfar,
      sunspot region 9987 still has at least an outside chance of producing
      an M-class flare. After that sunspot region rotates out of view,
      there will be very little in the way of visible sunspots, save for one
      or two small groups. After the second peak of this sunspot cycle's
      double peak, activity dropped in a hurry. This low level activity is
      something like you normally see later on as it gets closer to the
      solar minimum.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 134
      SFI : 142
      A index : 8
      K index : 2

      Solar wind speed : 339.7 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 4.5 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa

      IMF : 3.9 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.1 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9987 remains
      capable of producing an isolated low level M-class flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field activity is expected to continue at quiet to
      unsettled levels. Day three of the forecast period may experience
      isolated active conditions in response to a southern hemispheric high
      speed stream coronal hole becoming favorably positioned.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    • pawnfart
      Keep up the good work, because lack of flaring is data just as much as having some is. Check this out:
      Message 2 of 2 , Jun 12, 2002
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        Keep up the good work, because lack of flaring is data just as much
        as having some is.

        Check this out:

        http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
        lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/

        13-Jun-2002 1014.15 1010.10 19.40 -12.40 -8.04

        SOI is almost 20!!!!!

        Also, this comes with a N. Atlantic TS theory that positive SOI means
        less shear, but guess what? No significant TS activity. Seems that
        you need a combination of an SOI that is positive to prevent shear
        AND no TS activity in the E. Pac AND a flaring event, preferably a
        CME, in order to trigger them. (Assuming good biological conditions
        and SSTS).

        > Well, solar and geomagnetic activity can basically be summed up in
        one
        > word : *YAWN*
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