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Re: Florida TS history

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  • fredwx
    The historic record 1900-1996 shows 57 Hurricanes hitting Florida This is a 57% hit rate. During the 10 years sited as similar to the present (Regarding SOI)
    Message 1 of 12 , Jun 12, 2002
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      The historic record 1900-1996 shows 57 Hurricanes hitting Florida
      This is a 57% hit rate.

      During the 10 years sited as similar to the present (Regarding SOI)
      there were 4 hurricanes (hit rate of 40%)

      No pattern here that I can see.



      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
      > Fred,
      >
      > Because of the dams on the Orinoco, West Africa AND the very active
      > Mississippi I don't think TS history is that helpful.
    • pawnfart
      ... Please let s go through them one at a time (the four from the last 10 years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?
      Message 2 of 12 , Jun 12, 2002
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        > No pattern here that I can see.

        Please let's go through them one at a time (the four from the last 10
        years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?
      • fredwx
        The most recent year was 1991 which was labled as an el nino year. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/index.html The next was 1980 (non el nino)
        Message 3 of 12 , Jun 13, 2002
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          The most recent year was 1991 which was labled as an el nino year.
          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/index.html

          The next was 1980 (non el nino)
          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/index.html

          Then 1977 (el nino)
          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1977/index.html

          and the next was 1969 (el nino)
          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html


          --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
          > > No pattern here that I can see.
          >
          > Please let's go through them one at a time (the four from the last
          10
          > years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?
        • pawnfart
          Fred, I am not following you. Those are storms going back to 1969. What I am saying about Florida is given what has changed w/ Gaia over the past 10 years,
          Message 4 of 12 , Jun 13, 2002
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            Fred, I am not following you. Those are storms going back to 1969.
            What I am saying about Florida is given what has changed w/ Gaia over
            the past 10 years, especially between the time of Andrew and now,
            this data is misleading. For instance, given the Dr. Gray factors of
            Sahel rainfall and TS activity, here is a story that just came out
            and some comments about it (not that Cape Verde waves are important
            as far as a Andrew like storm, and Andrew was post Mt. Pinatubo, a
            SOx event that would drop phase change temps of cirrus).

            From this link:

            ><tt>David Roberts, the head of the aerosol modelling group at the
            Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
            Research, said: "It's an effect of the thermal balance between the
            two hemispheres. There has to be a rough balance between the north
            and south hemispheres – you can't have spare energy in one place or
            the other. If the Earth was completely symmetrical, then the point of
            thermal equilibrium, where the total energy on either side of a line
            was equal, would be the Equator. But because the Northern hemisphere
            isn't the same as the south [because of the vast energy reservoir of
            the Pacific, which retains energy more efficiently than land] we find
            that the Northern hemisphere is warmer than the South."</tt>

            ><TT>However, aerosol-driven cooling of the Northern hemisphere
            pushes that point of thermal equilibrium south – and with it go the
            rainclouds that people depend on for their crops in the Sahel. Dr
            Rotstayn and Professor Lohmann said that droughts have become less
            severe during the past few years. But that does not mean that they
            have disappeared. Far from it; the whole of southern Africa is facing
            a "regional food crisis", according to a recent report that notes
            that a total of six countries in southern Africa have roughly 11
            million people who need emergency food assistance. Ironically, the
            note came from the United States Agency for International
            Development.</tt>

            http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=304723

            My Comments:

            Wrong! SOx reduces phase change temperatures of cirrus but the
            bigger issue here is that hydro changes between the hemispheres AND
            Gaia issues w/ in Africa itself. Here are some examples:

            ><tt>There are three more conspicuous examples of the Movement's
            activities. The first example is traditional stone lines which are
            used to restore soil erosion. This is the product of cooperation
            between a western NGO and local peasants in the Naam group. Peter
            Wright, a project director of Oxfam discovered an excellent
            traditional water-conservation scheme when he was working with
            villagers, but he, at the same time, noticed that if these are
            aligned properly with the contour levels, they would work better
            (Wright and Bonkoungou, 1986: 79-86). Wright invented a cheap method
            to measure the contour by using a hosepipe, maximizing this schemes'
            effectiveness. Lines of stones ranged along the contour amazingly
            "increase infiltration, boost crop yields, reduce erosion, and are
            even capable of rehabilitating totally degraded land. [Moreover,] [t]
            he technique of making them is so cheap and simple that the stone
            lines are spreading with astonishing speed" (Harrison, 1989: 165).
            The Naam Movement disseminated the techniques widely, from neighbour
            to neighbour, from village to village. </tt>

            http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/sustdev/ROdirect/ROan0006.htm

            Another link:

            http://www.artsci.wustl.edu/~anthro/courses/306/sahel-
            desertification.html

            And another on small dams, not to see the actual illness but to track
            how small dams were constructed and used and may end up actually
            being beneficial to Gaia:

            http://www.wisc.edu/epat/.pop-env/.schis/.format/.small-dams.html

            More Gaia stuff:

            http://www.cidob.org/Ingles/Publicaciones/Afers/45-46acreman.html

            It should be noted that with this dam building activity in Africa,
            and elsewhere, like the Orinoco, the tropical storm seasons, and
            other aspects of climate, have SHIFTED as hydrology is delayed. What
            we see as a drought in the SW is related to the same thing--living
            earth feedbacks to biological activity upstream. So, CO2 from fossil
            fuels has a very important Gaia context, and that context is
            essentially electrical and biological.

            Hence, when the Mississippi hydrology is maxed and when African dams
            have helped SHIFT the wave features, the cirrus warming of the N.
            Atlantic is DELAYED and this seems to have cooled the Carribean in
            June and the GOM by mid July, August. Hence, when there finally is,
            from the delays, electrical and SST ability to form a TS in the N.
            Atlantic, it is so late in the season that the only thing that stands
            to hit the US is something that is more cold core . . .

            Thus, the chance for a TS in the GOM is EARLY from the activity of
            the Mississippi and spring rains in its flood plain. This year,
            because of the drought in Florida (which is incidentally related to
            the same dams being discussed), when solar flaring did bring on the
            rains, years of biological material has flowed out into the oceans
            and Gaia has feedback, following the Black Algae, living conditions
            toward more hydrology. Parts of Florida have had 20" of rain in very
            short periods of time the past few weeks! That might not be a TS but
            it is Gaia.

            I think that for the next few weeks there remains a chance for a TS
            for Florida and if it hits, a small chance for a what I call back EMF
            storm for the Texas side of the GOM, but it is difficult to say on
            that, particularly w/ the conditions of the Colorado and CAP and the
            fires and drought and all of that--the poor hydrology on that side of
            the GOM.


            --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
            > The most recent year was 1991 which was labled as an el nino year.
            > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/index.html
            >
            > The next was 1980 (non el nino)
            > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/index.html
            >
            > Then 1977 (el nino)
            > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1977/index.html
            >
            > and the next was 1969 (el nino)
            > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html
            >
            >
            > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
            > > > No pattern here that I can see.
            > >
            > > Please let's go through them one at a time (the four from the
            last
            > 10
            > > years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?
          • fredwx
            The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present pattern of SOI. ... 1969. ... over ... of ... of ... line ... hemisphere ... of ... find ...
            Message 5 of 12 , Jun 13, 2002
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              The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present
              pattern of SOI.

              --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
              > Fred, I am not following you. Those are storms going back to
              1969.
              > What I am saying about Florida is given what has changed w/ Gaia
              over
              > the past 10 years, especially between the time of Andrew and now,
              > this data is misleading. For instance, given the Dr. Gray factors
              of
              > Sahel rainfall and TS activity, here is a story that just came out
              > and some comments about it (not that Cape Verde waves are important
              > as far as a Andrew like storm, and Andrew was post Mt. Pinatubo, a
              > SOx event that would drop phase change temps of cirrus).
              >
              > From this link:
              >
              > ><tt>David Roberts, the head of the aerosol modelling group at the
              > Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
              > Research, said: "It's an effect of the thermal balance between the
              > two hemispheres. There has to be a rough balance between the north
              > and south hemispheres – you can't have spare energy in one place or
              > the other. If the Earth was completely symmetrical, then the point
              of
              > thermal equilibrium, where the total energy on either side of a
              line
              > was equal, would be the Equator. But because the Northern
              hemisphere
              > isn't the same as the south [because of the vast energy reservoir
              of
              > the Pacific, which retains energy more efficiently than land] we
              find
              > that the Northern hemisphere is warmer than the South."</tt>
              >
              > ><TT>However, aerosol-driven cooling of the Northern hemisphere
              > pushes that point of thermal equilibrium south – and with it go the
              > rainclouds that people depend on for their crops in the Sahel. Dr
              > Rotstayn and Professor Lohmann said that droughts have become less
              > severe during the past few years. But that does not mean that they
              > have disappeared. Far from it; the whole of southern Africa is
              facing
              > a "regional food crisis", according to a recent report that notes
              > that a total of six countries in southern Africa have roughly 11
              > million people who need emergency food assistance. Ironically, the
              > note came from the United States Agency for International
              > Development.</tt>
              >
              > http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?
              story=304723
              >
              > My Comments:
              >
              > Wrong! SOx reduces phase change temperatures of cirrus but the
              > bigger issue here is that hydro changes between the hemispheres AND
              > Gaia issues w/ in Africa itself. Here are some examples:
              >
              > ><tt>There are three more conspicuous examples of the Movement's
              > activities. The first example is traditional stone lines which are
              > used to restore soil erosion. This is the product of cooperation
              > between a western NGO and local peasants in the Naam group. Peter
              > Wright, a project director of Oxfam discovered an excellent
              > traditional water-conservation scheme when he was working with
              > villagers, but he, at the same time, noticed that if these are
              > aligned properly with the contour levels, they would work better
              > (Wright and Bonkoungou, 1986: 79-86). Wright invented a cheap
              method
              > to measure the contour by using a hosepipe, maximizing this
              schemes'
              > effectiveness. Lines of stones ranged along the contour amazingly
              > "increase infiltration, boost crop yields, reduce erosion, and are
              > even capable of rehabilitating totally degraded land. [Moreover,]
              [t]
              > he technique of making them is so cheap and simple that the stone
              > lines are spreading with astonishing speed" (Harrison, 1989: 165).
              > The Naam Movement disseminated the techniques widely, from
              neighbour
              > to neighbour, from village to village. </tt>
              >
              > http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/sustdev/ROdirect/ROan0006.htm
              >
              > Another link:
              >
              > http://www.artsci.wustl.edu/~anthro/courses/306/sahel-
              > desertification.html
              >
              > And another on small dams, not to see the actual illness but to
              track
              > how small dams were constructed and used and may end up actually
              > being beneficial to Gaia:
              >
              > http://www.wisc.edu/epat/.pop-env/.schis/.format/.small-dams.html
              >
              > More Gaia stuff:
              >
              > http://www.cidob.org/Ingles/Publicaciones/Afers/45-46acreman.html
              >
              > It should be noted that with this dam building activity in Africa,
              > and elsewhere, like the Orinoco, the tropical storm seasons, and
              > other aspects of climate, have SHIFTED as hydrology is delayed.
              What
              > we see as a drought in the SW is related to the same thing--living
              > earth feedbacks to biological activity upstream. So, CO2 from
              fossil
              > fuels has a very important Gaia context, and that context is
              > essentially electrical and biological.
              >
              > Hence, when the Mississippi hydrology is maxed and when African
              dams
              > have helped SHIFT the wave features, the cirrus warming of the N.
              > Atlantic is DELAYED and this seems to have cooled the Carribean in
              > June and the GOM by mid July, August. Hence, when there finally
              is,
              > from the delays, electrical and SST ability to form a TS in the N.
              > Atlantic, it is so late in the season that the only thing that
              stands
              > to hit the US is something that is more cold core . . .
              >
              > Thus, the chance for a TS in the GOM is EARLY from the activity of
              > the Mississippi and spring rains in its flood plain. This year,
              > because of the drought in Florida (which is incidentally related to
              > the same dams being discussed), when solar flaring did bring on the
              > rains, years of biological material has flowed out into the oceans
              > and Gaia has feedback, following the Black Algae, living conditions
              > toward more hydrology. Parts of Florida have had 20" of rain in
              very
              > short periods of time the past few weeks! That might not be a TS
              but
              > it is Gaia.
              >
              > I think that for the next few weeks there remains a chance for a TS
              > for Florida and if it hits, a small chance for a what I call back
              EMF
              > storm for the Texas side of the GOM, but it is difficult to say on
              > that, particularly w/ the conditions of the Colorado and CAP and
              the
              > fires and drought and all of that--the poor hydrology on that side
              of
              > the GOM.
              >
              >
              > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
              > > The most recent year was 1991 which was labled as an el nino year.
              > > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/index.html
              > >
              > > The next was 1980 (non el nino)
              > > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/index.html
              > >
              > > Then 1977 (el nino)
              > > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1977/index.html
              > >
              > > and the next was 1969 (el nino)
              > > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html
              > >
              > >
              > > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
              > > > > No pattern here that I can see.
              > > >
              > > > Please let's go through them one at a time (the four from the
              > last
              > > 10
              > > > years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?
            • pawnfart
              Oh. Cool. Well, this presents even a greater problem in that ocean temperatures in general are in my view warmer at this time than in the past 6,000 years,
              Message 6 of 12 , Jun 13, 2002
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                Oh. Cool.

                Well, this presents even a greater problem in that ocean temperatures
                in general are in my view warmer at this time than in the past 6,000
                years, based on this ENSO pattern we are seeing. Reason--the ocean
                conductivity is different than it was recently. That means that you
                can throw out recent TS data as not helpful. And that is why the
                recent SST anomalies combined with knowledge of the solar cycle and
                the Mt. Pinatubo event are so interesting to compare from this time
                to January-March 1997.

                The SOI is interesting only in the CONTEXT of SSTs and flaring/CMEs
                because it helps demostrate the cirrus cloud feedbacks . . . in my
                view they won't be that helpful as an artificial intelligence outside
                these other considerations.

                --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                > The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present
                > pattern of SOI.
                >
              • fredwx
                Mike, Here is a link I found today that I think you might like to take a look at: http://www.esr.org/lagerloef/sfcV/sfcV.html ... temperatures ... 6,000 ...
                Message 7 of 12 , Jun 14, 2002
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                  Mike,
                  Here is a link I found today that I think you might like to take a
                  look at:
                  http://www.esr.org/lagerloef/sfcV/sfcV.html

                  --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
                  > Oh. Cool.
                  >
                  > Well, this presents even a greater problem in that ocean
                  temperatures
                  > in general are in my view warmer at this time than in the past
                  6,000
                  > years, based on this ENSO pattern we are seeing. Reason--the ocean
                  > conductivity is different than it was recently. That means that
                  you
                  > can throw out recent TS data as not helpful. And that is why the
                  > recent SST anomalies combined with knowledge of the solar cycle and
                  > the Mt. Pinatubo event are so interesting to compare from this time
                  > to January-March 1997.
                  >
                  > The SOI is interesting only in the CONTEXT of SSTs and flaring/CMEs
                  > because it helps demostrate the cirrus cloud feedbacks . . . in my
                  > view they won't be that helpful as an artificial intelligence
                  outside
                  > these other considerations.
                  >
                  > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                  > > The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present
                  > > pattern of SOI.
                  > >
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