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Re: SOI at postive 10

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  • fredwx
    Of the 5 Hit years, 4 where El-Nino years and only 1 was not. Of the 5 Hits, only 2 where hurricanes, 1 TS and 2 were TD s when they were in Florida. ...
    Message 1 of 12 , Jun 12, 2002
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      Of the 5 Hit years, 4 where El-Nino years and only 1 was not.
      Of the 5 Hits, only 2 where hurricanes, 1 TS and 2 were TD's when
      they were in Florida.

      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
      > continuing trend.
      >
      > This, Fred, would make it so that a Florida landfall is less
      likely,
      > but at the same time seems like El Nino or a neg SOI brings rain
      > there and sometimes canes.
      >
      > The biosphere in Florida was delayed from activating itself in the
      > oceans--during the drought, but now the rain has washed three years
      > of accumulated biological material, including charred remains from
      > fires. The black algae is evidence of just this occurance, and the
      > rain that Florida has received evidence of Gaia, and the feedback
      > itself, of course, increases the chance of a TS.
      >
      > TS require low shear and ENSO brings shear, so for Florida, a
      > flaring active period that stimulates the Gaia feedback for Florida
      > is the very act that prevents much TS activity!
    • fredwx
      I went back and looked at the 10 years that matched to see how all of Florida made out. The results: 1895 - 2 TS (not El Nino) 1991- 1 TS, 1 TD (El Nino) 1946
      Message 2 of 12 , Jun 12, 2002
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        I went back and looked at the 10 years that matched to see how all of
        Florida made out. The results:
        1895 - 2 TS (not El Nino)
        1991- 1 TS, 1 TD (El Nino)
        1946 - 1 TS, 1 Hrcn (El Nino)
        1949 - 1 Hrn (not El Nino)
        1980 - None (not El Nino)
        1888- 2 hrcns, 2 TS's (El Nino)
        1913- None (El Nino)
        1965- 1 Hrn - (El Nino)
        1977 - None (El Nino)
        1969 - 1 TS, 1 TD (El Nino)

        I don't see any strong pattern here do you?

        --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
        > Of the 5 Hit years, 4 where El-Nino years and only 1 was not.
        > Of the 5 Hits, only 2 where hurricanes, 1 TS and 2 were TD's when
        > they were in Florida.
        >
        > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
        > > continuing trend.
        > >
        > > This, Fred, would make it so that a Florida landfall is less
        > likely,
        > > but at the same time seems like El Nino or a neg SOI brings rain
        > > there and sometimes canes.
        > >
        > > The biosphere in Florida was delayed from activating itself in
        the
        > > oceans--during the drought, but now the rain has washed three
        years
        > > of accumulated biological material, including charred remains
        from
        > > fires. The black algae is evidence of just this occurance, and
        the
        > > rain that Florida has received evidence of Gaia, and the feedback
        > > itself, of course, increases the chance of a TS.
        > >
        > > TS require low shear and ENSO brings shear, so for Florida, a
        > > flaring active period that stimulates the Gaia feedback for
        Florida
        > > is the very act that prevents much TS activity!
      • pawnfart
        Fred, Because of the dams on the Orinoco, West Africa AND the very active Mississippi I don t think TS history is that helpful.
        Message 3 of 12 , Jun 12, 2002
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          Fred,

          Because of the dams on the Orinoco, West Africa AND the very active
          Mississippi I don't think TS history is that helpful.
        • fredwx
          The historic record 1900-1996 shows 57 Hurricanes hitting Florida This is a 57% hit rate. During the 10 years sited as similar to the present (Regarding SOI)
          Message 4 of 12 , Jun 12, 2002
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            The historic record 1900-1996 shows 57 Hurricanes hitting Florida
            This is a 57% hit rate.

            During the 10 years sited as similar to the present (Regarding SOI)
            there were 4 hurricanes (hit rate of 40%)

            No pattern here that I can see.



            --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
            > Fred,
            >
            > Because of the dams on the Orinoco, West Africa AND the very active
            > Mississippi I don't think TS history is that helpful.
          • pawnfart
            ... Please let s go through them one at a time (the four from the last 10 years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?
            Message 5 of 12 , Jun 12, 2002
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              > No pattern here that I can see.

              Please let's go through them one at a time (the four from the last 10
              years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?
            • fredwx
              The most recent year was 1991 which was labled as an el nino year. http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/index.html The next was 1980 (non el nino)
              Message 6 of 12 , Jun 13, 2002
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                The most recent year was 1991 which was labled as an el nino year.
                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/index.html

                The next was 1980 (non el nino)
                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/index.html

                Then 1977 (el nino)
                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1977/index.html

                and the next was 1969 (el nino)
                http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html


                --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
                > > No pattern here that I can see.
                >
                > Please let's go through them one at a time (the four from the last
                10
                > years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?
              • pawnfart
                Fred, I am not following you. Those are storms going back to 1969. What I am saying about Florida is given what has changed w/ Gaia over the past 10 years,
                Message 7 of 12 , Jun 13, 2002
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                  Fred, I am not following you. Those are storms going back to 1969.
                  What I am saying about Florida is given what has changed w/ Gaia over
                  the past 10 years, especially between the time of Andrew and now,
                  this data is misleading. For instance, given the Dr. Gray factors of
                  Sahel rainfall and TS activity, here is a story that just came out
                  and some comments about it (not that Cape Verde waves are important
                  as far as a Andrew like storm, and Andrew was post Mt. Pinatubo, a
                  SOx event that would drop phase change temps of cirrus).

                  From this link:

                  ><tt>David Roberts, the head of the aerosol modelling group at the
                  Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
                  Research, said: "It's an effect of the thermal balance between the
                  two hemispheres. There has to be a rough balance between the north
                  and south hemispheres – you can't have spare energy in one place or
                  the other. If the Earth was completely symmetrical, then the point of
                  thermal equilibrium, where the total energy on either side of a line
                  was equal, would be the Equator. But because the Northern hemisphere
                  isn't the same as the south [because of the vast energy reservoir of
                  the Pacific, which retains energy more efficiently than land] we find
                  that the Northern hemisphere is warmer than the South."</tt>

                  ><TT>However, aerosol-driven cooling of the Northern hemisphere
                  pushes that point of thermal equilibrium south – and with it go the
                  rainclouds that people depend on for their crops in the Sahel. Dr
                  Rotstayn and Professor Lohmann said that droughts have become less
                  severe during the past few years. But that does not mean that they
                  have disappeared. Far from it; the whole of southern Africa is facing
                  a "regional food crisis", according to a recent report that notes
                  that a total of six countries in southern Africa have roughly 11
                  million people who need emergency food assistance. Ironically, the
                  note came from the United States Agency for International
                  Development.</tt>

                  http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=304723

                  My Comments:

                  Wrong! SOx reduces phase change temperatures of cirrus but the
                  bigger issue here is that hydro changes between the hemispheres AND
                  Gaia issues w/ in Africa itself. Here are some examples:

                  ><tt>There are three more conspicuous examples of the Movement's
                  activities. The first example is traditional stone lines which are
                  used to restore soil erosion. This is the product of cooperation
                  between a western NGO and local peasants in the Naam group. Peter
                  Wright, a project director of Oxfam discovered an excellent
                  traditional water-conservation scheme when he was working with
                  villagers, but he, at the same time, noticed that if these are
                  aligned properly with the contour levels, they would work better
                  (Wright and Bonkoungou, 1986: 79-86). Wright invented a cheap method
                  to measure the contour by using a hosepipe, maximizing this schemes'
                  effectiveness. Lines of stones ranged along the contour amazingly
                  "increase infiltration, boost crop yields, reduce erosion, and are
                  even capable of rehabilitating totally degraded land. [Moreover,] [t]
                  he technique of making them is so cheap and simple that the stone
                  lines are spreading with astonishing speed" (Harrison, 1989: 165).
                  The Naam Movement disseminated the techniques widely, from neighbour
                  to neighbour, from village to village. </tt>

                  http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/sustdev/ROdirect/ROan0006.htm

                  Another link:

                  http://www.artsci.wustl.edu/~anthro/courses/306/sahel-
                  desertification.html

                  And another on small dams, not to see the actual illness but to track
                  how small dams were constructed and used and may end up actually
                  being beneficial to Gaia:

                  http://www.wisc.edu/epat/.pop-env/.schis/.format/.small-dams.html

                  More Gaia stuff:

                  http://www.cidob.org/Ingles/Publicaciones/Afers/45-46acreman.html

                  It should be noted that with this dam building activity in Africa,
                  and elsewhere, like the Orinoco, the tropical storm seasons, and
                  other aspects of climate, have SHIFTED as hydrology is delayed. What
                  we see as a drought in the SW is related to the same thing--living
                  earth feedbacks to biological activity upstream. So, CO2 from fossil
                  fuels has a very important Gaia context, and that context is
                  essentially electrical and biological.

                  Hence, when the Mississippi hydrology is maxed and when African dams
                  have helped SHIFT the wave features, the cirrus warming of the N.
                  Atlantic is DELAYED and this seems to have cooled the Carribean in
                  June and the GOM by mid July, August. Hence, when there finally is,
                  from the delays, electrical and SST ability to form a TS in the N.
                  Atlantic, it is so late in the season that the only thing that stands
                  to hit the US is something that is more cold core . . .

                  Thus, the chance for a TS in the GOM is EARLY from the activity of
                  the Mississippi and spring rains in its flood plain. This year,
                  because of the drought in Florida (which is incidentally related to
                  the same dams being discussed), when solar flaring did bring on the
                  rains, years of biological material has flowed out into the oceans
                  and Gaia has feedback, following the Black Algae, living conditions
                  toward more hydrology. Parts of Florida have had 20" of rain in very
                  short periods of time the past few weeks! That might not be a TS but
                  it is Gaia.

                  I think that for the next few weeks there remains a chance for a TS
                  for Florida and if it hits, a small chance for a what I call back EMF
                  storm for the Texas side of the GOM, but it is difficult to say on
                  that, particularly w/ the conditions of the Colorado and CAP and the
                  fires and drought and all of that--the poor hydrology on that side of
                  the GOM.


                  --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                  > The most recent year was 1991 which was labled as an el nino year.
                  > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/index.html
                  >
                  > The next was 1980 (non el nino)
                  > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/index.html
                  >
                  > Then 1977 (el nino)
                  > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1977/index.html
                  >
                  > and the next was 1969 (el nino)
                  > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html
                  >
                  >
                  > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
                  > > > No pattern here that I can see.
                  > >
                  > > Please let's go through them one at a time (the four from the
                  last
                  > 10
                  > > years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?
                • fredwx
                  The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present pattern of SOI. ... 1969. ... over ... of ... of ... line ... hemisphere ... of ... find ...
                  Message 8 of 12 , Jun 13, 2002
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                    The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present
                    pattern of SOI.

                    --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
                    > Fred, I am not following you. Those are storms going back to
                    1969.
                    > What I am saying about Florida is given what has changed w/ Gaia
                    over
                    > the past 10 years, especially between the time of Andrew and now,
                    > this data is misleading. For instance, given the Dr. Gray factors
                    of
                    > Sahel rainfall and TS activity, here is a story that just came out
                    > and some comments about it (not that Cape Verde waves are important
                    > as far as a Andrew like storm, and Andrew was post Mt. Pinatubo, a
                    > SOx event that would drop phase change temps of cirrus).
                    >
                    > From this link:
                    >
                    > ><tt>David Roberts, the head of the aerosol modelling group at the
                    > Meteorological Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
                    > Research, said: "It's an effect of the thermal balance between the
                    > two hemispheres. There has to be a rough balance between the north
                    > and south hemispheres – you can't have spare energy in one place or
                    > the other. If the Earth was completely symmetrical, then the point
                    of
                    > thermal equilibrium, where the total energy on either side of a
                    line
                    > was equal, would be the Equator. But because the Northern
                    hemisphere
                    > isn't the same as the south [because of the vast energy reservoir
                    of
                    > the Pacific, which retains energy more efficiently than land] we
                    find
                    > that the Northern hemisphere is warmer than the South."</tt>
                    >
                    > ><TT>However, aerosol-driven cooling of the Northern hemisphere
                    > pushes that point of thermal equilibrium south – and with it go the
                    > rainclouds that people depend on for their crops in the Sahel. Dr
                    > Rotstayn and Professor Lohmann said that droughts have become less
                    > severe during the past few years. But that does not mean that they
                    > have disappeared. Far from it; the whole of southern Africa is
                    facing
                    > a "regional food crisis", according to a recent report that notes
                    > that a total of six countries in southern Africa have roughly 11
                    > million people who need emergency food assistance. Ironically, the
                    > note came from the United States Agency for International
                    > Development.</tt>
                    >
                    > http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?
                    story=304723
                    >
                    > My Comments:
                    >
                    > Wrong! SOx reduces phase change temperatures of cirrus but the
                    > bigger issue here is that hydro changes between the hemispheres AND
                    > Gaia issues w/ in Africa itself. Here are some examples:
                    >
                    > ><tt>There are three more conspicuous examples of the Movement's
                    > activities. The first example is traditional stone lines which are
                    > used to restore soil erosion. This is the product of cooperation
                    > between a western NGO and local peasants in the Naam group. Peter
                    > Wright, a project director of Oxfam discovered an excellent
                    > traditional water-conservation scheme when he was working with
                    > villagers, but he, at the same time, noticed that if these are
                    > aligned properly with the contour levels, they would work better
                    > (Wright and Bonkoungou, 1986: 79-86). Wright invented a cheap
                    method
                    > to measure the contour by using a hosepipe, maximizing this
                    schemes'
                    > effectiveness. Lines of stones ranged along the contour amazingly
                    > "increase infiltration, boost crop yields, reduce erosion, and are
                    > even capable of rehabilitating totally degraded land. [Moreover,]
                    [t]
                    > he technique of making them is so cheap and simple that the stone
                    > lines are spreading with astonishing speed" (Harrison, 1989: 165).
                    > The Naam Movement disseminated the techniques widely, from
                    neighbour
                    > to neighbour, from village to village. </tt>
                    >
                    > http://www.fao.org/waicent/faoinfo/sustdev/ROdirect/ROan0006.htm
                    >
                    > Another link:
                    >
                    > http://www.artsci.wustl.edu/~anthro/courses/306/sahel-
                    > desertification.html
                    >
                    > And another on small dams, not to see the actual illness but to
                    track
                    > how small dams were constructed and used and may end up actually
                    > being beneficial to Gaia:
                    >
                    > http://www.wisc.edu/epat/.pop-env/.schis/.format/.small-dams.html
                    >
                    > More Gaia stuff:
                    >
                    > http://www.cidob.org/Ingles/Publicaciones/Afers/45-46acreman.html
                    >
                    > It should be noted that with this dam building activity in Africa,
                    > and elsewhere, like the Orinoco, the tropical storm seasons, and
                    > other aspects of climate, have SHIFTED as hydrology is delayed.
                    What
                    > we see as a drought in the SW is related to the same thing--living
                    > earth feedbacks to biological activity upstream. So, CO2 from
                    fossil
                    > fuels has a very important Gaia context, and that context is
                    > essentially electrical and biological.
                    >
                    > Hence, when the Mississippi hydrology is maxed and when African
                    dams
                    > have helped SHIFT the wave features, the cirrus warming of the N.
                    > Atlantic is DELAYED and this seems to have cooled the Carribean in
                    > June and the GOM by mid July, August. Hence, when there finally
                    is,
                    > from the delays, electrical and SST ability to form a TS in the N.
                    > Atlantic, it is so late in the season that the only thing that
                    stands
                    > to hit the US is something that is more cold core . . .
                    >
                    > Thus, the chance for a TS in the GOM is EARLY from the activity of
                    > the Mississippi and spring rains in its flood plain. This year,
                    > because of the drought in Florida (which is incidentally related to
                    > the same dams being discussed), when solar flaring did bring on the
                    > rains, years of biological material has flowed out into the oceans
                    > and Gaia has feedback, following the Black Algae, living conditions
                    > toward more hydrology. Parts of Florida have had 20" of rain in
                    very
                    > short periods of time the past few weeks! That might not be a TS
                    but
                    > it is Gaia.
                    >
                    > I think that for the next few weeks there remains a chance for a TS
                    > for Florida and if it hits, a small chance for a what I call back
                    EMF
                    > storm for the Texas side of the GOM, but it is difficult to say on
                    > that, particularly w/ the conditions of the Colorado and CAP and
                    the
                    > fires and drought and all of that--the poor hydrology on that side
                    of
                    > the GOM.
                    >
                    >
                    > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                    > > The most recent year was 1991 which was labled as an el nino year.
                    > > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1991/index.html
                    > >
                    > > The next was 1980 (non el nino)
                    > > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1980/index.html
                    > >
                    > > Then 1977 (el nino)
                    > > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1977/index.html
                    > >
                    > > and the next was 1969 (el nino)
                    > > http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html
                    > >
                    > >
                    > > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
                    > > > > No pattern here that I can see.
                    > > >
                    > > > Please let's go through them one at a time (the four from the
                    > last
                    > > 10
                    > > > years) and I will explain what I mean. Which one came first?
                  • pawnfart
                    Oh. Cool. Well, this presents even a greater problem in that ocean temperatures in general are in my view warmer at this time than in the past 6,000 years,
                    Message 9 of 12 , Jun 13, 2002
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                      Oh. Cool.

                      Well, this presents even a greater problem in that ocean temperatures
                      in general are in my view warmer at this time than in the past 6,000
                      years, based on this ENSO pattern we are seeing. Reason--the ocean
                      conductivity is different than it was recently. That means that you
                      can throw out recent TS data as not helpful. And that is why the
                      recent SST anomalies combined with knowledge of the solar cycle and
                      the Mt. Pinatubo event are so interesting to compare from this time
                      to January-March 1997.

                      The SOI is interesting only in the CONTEXT of SSTs and flaring/CMEs
                      because it helps demostrate the cirrus cloud feedbacks . . . in my
                      view they won't be that helpful as an artificial intelligence outside
                      these other considerations.

                      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                      > The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present
                      > pattern of SOI.
                      >
                    • fredwx
                      Mike, Here is a link I found today that I think you might like to take a look at: http://www.esr.org/lagerloef/sfcV/sfcV.html ... temperatures ... 6,000 ...
                      Message 10 of 12 , Jun 14, 2002
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                        Mike,
                        Here is a link I found today that I think you might like to take a
                        look at:
                        http://www.esr.org/lagerloef/sfcV/sfcV.html

                        --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
                        > Oh. Cool.
                        >
                        > Well, this presents even a greater problem in that ocean
                        temperatures
                        > in general are in my view warmer at this time than in the past
                        6,000
                        > years, based on this ENSO pattern we are seeing. Reason--the ocean
                        > conductivity is different than it was recently. That means that
                        you
                        > can throw out recent TS data as not helpful. And that is why the
                        > recent SST anomalies combined with knowledge of the solar cycle and
                        > the Mt. Pinatubo event are so interesting to compare from this time
                        > to January-March 1997.
                        >
                        > The SOI is interesting only in the CONTEXT of SSTs and flaring/CMEs
                        > because it helps demostrate the cirrus cloud feedbacks . . . in my
                        > view they won't be that helpful as an artificial intelligence
                        outside
                        > these other considerations.
                        >
                        > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
                        > > The years I sent are the most recent years that match the present
                        > > pattern of SOI.
                        > >
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