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Solar Activity Report for 6/10/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    The Earth is inside of a coronal hole solar wind stream this evening. The solar wind speed and density are both elevated some, although as yet there haven t
    Message 1 of 5 , Jun 10, 2002
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      The Earth is inside of a coronal hole solar wind stream this evening.
      The solar wind speed and density are both elevated some, although as
      yet there haven't been any significant geomagnetic effects from it.
      On the heels of the coronal hole that caused this solar wind gust is
      another one that is now in an Earth pointing position. About the time
      the solar wind effects subside from the coronal hole that is
      influencing things now, the solar wind gusts from the next one will be
      arriving. The result is that the solar wind speed and density should
      remain at least mildly elebvated for the next several days. An
      isolated M-class flare is possible from sunspot region 9987.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 177
      SFI : 152
      A index : 16
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 370.5 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 6.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.5 nPa

      IMF : 6.7 nT
      IMF Orientation : 1.9 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Region 9987 has the
      potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
      levels throughout the forecast period.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
    • pawnfart
      With Boris gone now, SOI has gone positive big time. My veiw is that SSTs will cool very rapidly with the induction from winds, as warm as they are.
      Message 2 of 5 , Jun 10, 2002
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        With Boris gone now,

        SOI has gone positive big time. My veiw is that SSTs will cool very
        rapidly with the induction from winds, as warm as they are.


        http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
        lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/

        6-Jun-2002 1014.84 1013.55 0.00 -20.10 -9.61
        7-Jun-2002 1014.59 1013.25 0.30 -20.25 -9.54
        8-Jun-2002 1014.45 1013.05 0.70 -19.13 -9.52
        9-Jun-2002 1013.50 1012.25 -0.20 -17.59 -9.57
        10-Jun-2002 1015.06 1012.60 8.20 -16.13 -9.36
        11-Jun-2002 1015.56 1012.25 14.20 -14.86 -8.88
      • fredwx
        I emailed the Austrailian Climnate Information site: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/index.html regarding the 10 years that the current SOI matched in the
        Message 3 of 5 , Jun 11, 2002
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          I emailed the Austrailian Climnate Information site:
          http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/index.html
          regarding the 10 years that the current SOI matched in the past. I
          received this information in response:


          "The first 10 SOI analogue years are as follows:

          1 5 1895
          2 4 1991 el nino
          3 6 1946 el nino
          4 6 1949
          5 4 1980
          6 4 1888 el nino
          7 5 1913 el nino
          8 6 1965 el nino
          9 5 1977 el nino
          10 6 1969 el nino

          The analogues are listed by the last month of the
          nine-month matching period. For example, analogue number 1 matched
          the SOI from Sep 1894 to May 1895, number 2 from Aug 1990 to April
          1991 etc.....

          Now I will try to go back and look at those hurricane seasons.

          Fred




          --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
          > With Boris gone now,
          >
          > SOI has gone positive big time. My veiw is that SSTs will cool
          very
          > rapidly with the induction from winds, as warm as they are.
          >
          >
          >
          http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
          > lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/
          >
          > 6-Jun-2002 1014.84 1013.55 0.00 -20.10 -9.61
          > 7-Jun-2002 1014.59 1013.25 0.30 -20.25 -9.54
          > 8-Jun-2002 1014.45 1013.05 0.70 -19.13 -9.52
          > 9-Jun-2002 1013.50 1012.25 -0.20 -17.59 -9.57
          > 10-Jun-2002 1015.06 1012.60 8.20 -16.13 -9.36
          > 11-Jun-2002 1015.56 1012.25 14.20 -14.86 -8.88
        • fredwx
          A quick check of those 10 years showed that on 5 or the 10 a hurricane or TS affected the Central West Coast of Florida (Tampa Area)... ...
          Message 4 of 5 , Jun 11, 2002
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            A quick check of those 10 years showed that on 5 or the 10 a
            hurricane or TS affected the Central West Coast of Florida (Tampa
            Area)...


            --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
            > I emailed the Austrailian Climnate Information site:
            > http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/index.html
            > regarding the 10 years that the current SOI matched in the past. I
            > received this information in response:
            >
            >
            > "The first 10 SOI analogue years are as follows:
            >
            > 1 5 1895
            > 2 4 1991 el nino
            > 3 6 1946 el nino
            > 4 6 1949
            > 5 4 1980
            > 6 4 1888 el nino
            > 7 5 1913 el nino
            > 8 6 1965 el nino
            > 9 5 1977 el nino
            > 10 6 1969 el nino
            >
            > The analogues are listed by the last month of the
            > nine-month matching period. For example, analogue number 1 matched
            > the SOI from Sep 1894 to May 1895, number 2 from Aug 1990 to April
            > 1991 etc.....
            >
            > Now I will try to go back and look at those hurricane seasons.
            >
            > Fred
            >
            >
            >
            >
            > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
            > > With Boris gone now,
            > >
            > > SOI has gone positive big time. My veiw is that SSTs will cool
            > very
            > > rapidly with the induction from winds, as warm as they are.
            > >
            > >
            > >
            >
            http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
            > > lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/
            > >
            > > 6-Jun-2002 1014.84 1013.55 0.00 -20.10 -9.61
            > > 7-Jun-2002 1014.59 1013.25 0.30 -20.25 -9.54
            > > 8-Jun-2002 1014.45 1013.05 0.70 -19.13 -9.52
            > > 9-Jun-2002 1013.50 1012.25 -0.20 -17.59 -9.57
            > > 10-Jun-2002 1015.06 1012.60 8.20 -16.13 -9.36
            > > 11-Jun-2002 1015.56 1012.25 14.20 -14.86 -8.88
          • fredwx
            Of the 5, only 2 were hurricanes, one tropical storm and 2 TD s. Also 4 of the five occured during the El-Nino years. ... I ... matched ... April ...
            Message 5 of 5 , Jun 11, 2002
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              Of the 5, only 2 were hurricanes, one tropical storm and 2 TD's. Also
              4 of the five occured during the El-Nino years.


              --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
              > A quick check of those 10 years showed that on 5 or the 10 a
              > hurricane or TS affected the Central West Coast of Florida (Tampa
              > Area)...
              >
              >
              > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
              > > I emailed the Austrailian Climnate Information site:
              > > http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/index.html
              > > regarding the 10 years that the current SOI matched in the past.
              I
              > > received this information in response:
              > >
              > >
              > > "The first 10 SOI analogue years are as follows:
              > >
              > > 1 5 1895
              > > 2 4 1991 el nino
              > > 3 6 1946 el nino
              > > 4 6 1949
              > > 5 4 1980
              > > 6 4 1888 el nino
              > > 7 5 1913 el nino
              > > 8 6 1965 el nino
              > > 9 5 1977 el nino
              > > 10 6 1969 el nino
              > >
              > > The analogues are listed by the last month of the
              > > nine-month matching period. For example, analogue number 1
              matched
              > > the SOI from Sep 1894 to May 1895, number 2 from Aug 1990 to
              April
              > > 1991 etc.....
              > >
              > > Now I will try to go back and look at those hurricane seasons.
              > >
              > > Fred
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > >
              > > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
              > > > With Boris gone now,
              > > >
              > > > SOI has gone positive big time. My veiw is that SSTs will cool
              > > very
              > > > rapidly with the induction from winds, as warm as they are.
              > > >
              > > >
              > > >
              > >
              >
              http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
              > > > lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/
              > > >
              > > > 6-Jun-2002 1014.84 1013.55 0.00 -20.10 -9.61
              > > > 7-Jun-2002 1014.59 1013.25 0.30 -20.25 -9.54
              > > > 8-Jun-2002 1014.45 1013.05 0.70 -19.13 -9.52
              > > > 9-Jun-2002 1013.50 1012.25 -0.20 -17.59 -9.57
              > > > 10-Jun-2002 1015.06 1012.60 8.20 -16.13 -9.36
              > > > 11-Jun-2002 1015.56 1012.25 14.20 -14.86 -8.88
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