Solar Activity Report for 6/1/02
- Solar activity continued to be moderate today with the production of 2
M-class flares. The solar wind speed and density are elevated this
evening, and I suspect that is a result of one of those flares. That
could mean that at least a semi-halo CME is headed our way. The SOHO
satellite coronagraph images show quite a bit of CME activity over the
last couple of days. The space weather gurus should be making an
official announcement soon if a CME is on the way. Sunspot regions
9973 and 9979 have definite flare producing potential, and both have
already been active. A major flare event is not out of the question.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 192
SFI : 179
A index : 5
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 394.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 8.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa
IMF : 6.6 nT
IMF Orientation : 6.2 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for
the next three days. A chance for an isolated major flare exists for
Regions 9973 and 9979.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mainly quiet to unsettled
for most of the forecast period. There is a chance for isolated active
conditions by the end of the period, which may result from the solar
activity reported yesterday or from today's M1/1n event.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
01-Jun-2002 1049Z M1.1
01-Jun-2002 0357Z M1.5
31-May-2002 0016Z M2.4
- When you make these observations of M1.1 on 6/1 at 1049 Z--is that a
reading relative to how he earth gets this energy or is it an
observational reading relative to the sun only? IOW, is it a reading
taken from how the sat gets it where it is or is it looking at the
size of the flare? What is that reading?
The reason I ask is the elliptical orbit of the sun and the M9 like
flares we had this winter have not been seen as we have moved away
from the sun. Yet the SOI impact seems to be about the same, IOW
when we get M class flares SOI tends to neg.
> The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mainly quiet tounsettled
> for most of the forecast period. There is a chance for isolatedactive
> conditions by the end of the period, which may result from the solar
> activity reported yesterday or from today's M1/1n event.
> Recent significant solar flare activity :
> 01-Jun-2002 1049Z M1.1
> 01-Jun-2002 0357Z M1.5
> 31-May-2002 0016Z M2.4
- --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
> When you make these observations of M1.1 on 6/1 at 1049 Z--is that aThat reading is obtained by measuring the X-ray output of the flare,
> reading relative to how he earth gets this energy or is it an
> observational reading relative to the sun only? IOW, is it a reading
> taken from how the sat gets it where it is or is it looking at the
> size of the flare? What is that reading?
as measured by the GOES 8 satellite. The actual X-ray measurement is
taken in watts/square meter. M class flares range from .00001 to
.0001 watts/square meter. GOES stands for Geostationary Operational
Environmental Satellites. As the name inmplies they are in
geostationary orbit. Therefore, their distance to the sun would vary
as Earth's does. Since the seasonal Earth-Sun distance change is
relatively minor compared to the total Earth-Sun distance, I wouldn't
think it would affect the readings that much.