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Solar Activity Report for 6/1/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    Solar activity continued to be moderate today with the production of 2 M-class flares. The solar wind speed and density are elevated this evening, and I
    Message 1 of 3 , Jun 1, 2002
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      Solar activity continued to be moderate today with the production of 2
      M-class flares. The solar wind speed and density are elevated this
      evening, and I suspect that is a result of one of those flares. That
      could mean that at least a semi-halo CME is headed our way. The SOHO
      satellite coronagraph images show quite a bit of CME activity over the
      last couple of days. The space weather gurus should be making an
      official announcement soon if a CME is on the way. Sunspot regions
      9973 and 9979 have definite flare producing potential, and both have
      already been active. A major flare event is not out of the question.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 192
      SFI : 179
      A index : 5
      K index : 4

      Solar wind speed : 394.2 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 8.7 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa

      IMF : 6.6 nT
      IMF Orientation : 6.2 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
      reaching the R1 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to persist at low to moderate levels for
      the next three days. A chance for an isolated major flare exists for
      Regions 9973 and 9979.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mainly quiet to unsettled
      for most of the forecast period. There is a chance for isolated active
      conditions by the end of the period, which may result from the solar
      activity reported yesterday or from today's M1/1n event.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      01-Jun-2002 1049Z M1.1
      01-Jun-2002 0357Z M1.5
      31-May-2002 0016Z M2.4
    • pawnfart
      When you make these observations of M1.1 on 6/1 at 1049 Z--is that a reading relative to how he earth gets this energy or is it an observational reading
      Message 2 of 3 , Jun 3, 2002
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        When you make these observations of M1.1 on 6/1 at 1049 Z--is that a
        reading relative to how he earth gets this energy or is it an
        observational reading relative to the sun only? IOW, is it a reading
        taken from how the sat gets it where it is or is it looking at the
        size of the flare? What is that reading?

        The reason I ask is the elliptical orbit of the sun and the M9 like
        flares we had this winter have not been seen as we have moved away
        from the sun. Yet the SOI impact seems to be about the same, IOW
        when we get M class flares SOI tends to neg.


        > The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mainly quiet to
        unsettled
        > for most of the forecast period. There is a chance for isolated
        active
        > conditions by the end of the period, which may result from the solar
        > activity reported yesterday or from today's M1/1n event.
        >
        > Recent significant solar flare activity :
        > 01-Jun-2002 1049Z M1.1
        > 01-Jun-2002 0357Z M1.5
        > 31-May-2002 0016Z M2.4
      • b1blancer_29501
        ... That reading is obtained by measuring the X-ray output of the flare, as measured by the GOES 8 satellite. The actual X-ray measurement is taken in
        Message 3 of 3 , Jun 4, 2002
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          --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
          > When you make these observations of M1.1 on 6/1 at 1049 Z--is that a
          > reading relative to how he earth gets this energy or is it an
          > observational reading relative to the sun only? IOW, is it a reading
          > taken from how the sat gets it where it is or is it looking at the
          > size of the flare? What is that reading?
          >

          That reading is obtained by measuring the X-ray output of the flare,
          as measured by the GOES 8 satellite. The actual X-ray measurement is
          taken in watts/square meter. M class flares range from .00001 to
          .0001 watts/square meter. GOES stands for Geostationary Operational
          Environmental Satellites. As the name inmplies they are in
          geostationary orbit. Therefore, their distance to the sun would vary
          as Earth's does. Since the seasonal Earth-Sun distance change is
          relatively minor compared to the total Earth-Sun distance, I wouldn't
          think it would affect the readings that much.
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