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Re: Looks like a partial answer to our CME and SOI--

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  • fredwx
    The mointain/ocean difference in heating and cooling, much like the monsoonal flow, causes cold dry air to fall down from the mountains I don t think that
    Message 1 of 4 , May 27, 2002
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      "The mointain/ocean difference in heating and cooling, much like the
      monsoonal flow, causes cold dry air to fall down from the mountains "

      I don't think that happens to any significant extend during the
      summer months there. You do have occurances near the Gulf of
      Tehuantepec during the winter months but that is caused by strong
      high pressure over the GOM spilling over the mountains at a narrow
      point near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In this case the winds can be
      gale or storm force and extend southward for 200-300 miiles into the
      Pacific.


      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
      > fredwx wrote:
      > > Adolph developed some 200 miles from shore and Alma some 300-350
      > > miles, both too far to have any significant mountain influence.
      >
      >
      > Again, I am not sure you are following what I am saying. And Alma
      > formed closer to shore and wiggled down south as it strengthened
      The
      > mointain/ocean difference in heating and cooling, much like the
      > monsoonal flow, causes cold dry air to fall down from the
      mountains
      > to the West Pac there and it really has to be a large area for a
      > couple of reasons. First reason is there has to be an area north
      of
      > the ambiant low for fair weather voltages to have a large enough
      area
      > to be significant. The electrical forces involved are low volume
      and
      > high area in nature. Further, Coriolis itself is a low volume
      large
      > area forcing. This is especially true the closer one gets to the
      > tropics. Once that cold area along those mountains forms, the
      > surface low is going to suck in winds that get right turned
      against
      > the surface that is moving west anyway, AND there will be that
      fair
      > weather voltage to the north. I don't want to beat a dead horse,
      if
      > you can't see this, but I do want to move on to the low east of
      > Florida.
      >
      > Low east of Florida
      >
      > I have noticed this low, but what I was interested in was from my
      > observations from the national map of lightening strikes that this
      > low had its fair share, first in a line parallel to the east
      Florida
      > coast and then more to a center of convection. The region seems to
      be
      > in the area of the hydrate zone underneath and there was a cold
      front
      > that pushed out to the ocean, where the warmer waters and the
      front
      > combined in an extra tropical manner, yet . . .
      >
      > The Gulf Stream is running due north near Florida, and its flow is
      > very fast. A man on a raft could drift 100 miles in a day on it.
      > There is typically north or northeastern flow of clouds, AND YET
      the
      > ocean current from most of the west portion of the North Atlantic
      > there is actually flowing in general east to west across the
      magnetic
      > field lines! How is that so?
      >
      > The gyre in the North Atlantic is nothing more than a bulge of
      water,
      > about 4 feet high, and current moves down hill from it. It is off
      > centered, more to the west of the North Atlantic, but it is indeed
      a
      > gyre. As water moves down that hill, coriolis RIGHT turns it, and
      > produces the Gulf Stream, which presents the warmest, most
      conductive
      > waters that would impact cirrus. There are, of course, trade winds
      > and other currents, but I don't want to complicate things too
      much.
      > This is the significant current that is moving east to west and we
      > are not even talking about the surface winds that the storms
      > themselves bring. This is the direction, that per Fleming's right
      > hand rule, produces cirrus enhancement with an upward vector of
      > electrons, when surface lows go by.
      >
      > Hence, if you were to additionally biologically insulate the Gulf
      > Stream underbelly with hydrates, that is where you would find the
      > most effect of cirrus enhancement, and that, in my view is why
      storms
      > often will track NE. So, it is not just that the gyre heads that
      way
      > along the coast, with the warm SSTS, but also the electrical
      > implications. I have seen storms start to move a tiny bit west to
      > east and seen them turn extra tropical almost instantanious--
      because
      > the dynamic is fundimentally electrical.
      >
      > There is coriolos, and induction from colder SSTs and the stuff I
      > have been talking about which actually makes this question about
      this
      > front developing into a storm interesting--could this become
      another
      > Andrew?
      >
      > However, you also may have noticed that I made a comment about
      this
      > first storm in the E. Pac w/ its monsoonal features moved SW
      intially
      > of west and as it moved away from the mountains it has taken on
      more
      > of a TS features.
      >
      > The answer here is electrical as well, and all it involves is
      cirrus
      > clouds and sulfur. Sulfur changes the electrical dynamic of rain
      > because sulfur drops the phase change temperature of cirrus
      clouds,
      > which are the subject of the electrical and the IR balances--the
      ice
      > of these clouds freezing requires a MUCH colder temperature
      because
      > of the content of sulfur or SOx from the volcanoes.
      >
      > Any forecast without consideration of sulfer and volcanic
      erruptions
      > is fundimentally flawed, and with respect to Andrew, a volcanic
      > erruption of a volcano called Mt. Pinatubo altered cirrus phase
      > change temperatures around the world. A simple comparision of what
      > happened to a landfalling Bret and Andrew is all that is needed to
      > show this. Andrew was a buzz sawing hurricane and Bret stalling
      and
      > flooding one. Yet both had the same landfalling BP AND winds and
      > occurred roughly at the same time of year.
      >
      > What happens is the NHC measures winds on platforms at 30 feet
      > whereas the NWC measures them at three feet. Bret's winds were
      much
      > higher and this enabled it to have less friction with the land,
      and
      > the storm flooded and stalled, whereas Andrew bent its full fury
      on
      > the low flat ground of Florida.
      >
      > It also was NOT enhanced or able to lose its forward momentum as
      it
      > had developed from a Cape Verde wave. Obviously, this low is not a
      > Cape Verde wave nor does it have any forward momentum, to the
      > contrary, the front moved SE across the US.
      >
      > There are two main reasons we won't see an Andrew this year, even
      > from a wave, should it develop, from Cape Verde. The first is the
      > West African dams (you could add the Orinoco dams), but the second
      is
      > we haven't seen much of a volcano for some time.
      >
      > What rivers do is they provide detritus for methanogens to make
      > methane hydrates, a rubber like insulating substance. And Mt.
      > Pinatubo put so much sulfur in the air phase change temperatures
      of
      > the cirrus clouds near Andrew that it essentially was able to move
      > against normal patterns dying on Miami, and dying very badly.
      >
      > I also want to correct a mistake regarding counter currents that I
      > was speculating about here last year and before then when I was
      first
      > thinking about electrical fields and induction. Some of the credit
      > should go to someone who works with electricity for a living--his
      > name is Alan, from OZ, from another bb. (I invited him here but he
      is
      > too busy even to post on that other bb now). That is, in order for
      > induction to work there has to be a magnetic field strong enough
      for
      > it to make be meaningful. And since we are talking about fair
      weather
      > and foul weather voltages creating an ocean based electrical
      current,
      > there is a field there as well as one in the ionosphere. This is
      > especially true when we start to see strikes, like we are seeing
      with
      > this low. Anyway, the counters don't figure in the thing simply
      > because they are too cold to be as conductive as the surface or
      the
      > thermohaline, which goes to this idea that the warmer a conducter
      in
      > the oceans, the greater the specific conductivity.
      >
      > ++++++++++++++
      >
      > The resultes are in on that CME! The SOI weekend numbers are in!
      >
      > 24-May-2002 1014.49 1013.55 -4.50 -11.38 -7.28
      >
      > 25-May-2002 1014.55 1013.90 -6.70 -11.32 -7.28
      >
      > 26-May-2002 1014.38 1014.10 -9.60 -11.77 -7.23
      >
      > 27-May-2002 1015.20 1014.00 -2.50 -12.37 -7.11
      >
      > What is interesting to me is indeed there was a bit of a jump in
      the
      > index negitive on the 26th from the proton storm but now that it
      is
      > gone we are left almost nuetral. Further, a TS formed in the E.
      Pac--
      > Adolf, which to me started with a monsoonal electrical effect of
      cold
      > dry air from the coastal mountains covering an area north of the
      > storm were positive voltage and coriolis can work their wonders,
      over
      > an area (roughly 200 miles) where a large area forcing can occur.
      And
      > mostly, note HP areas in both sides of the SOI--among the highest
      > pressures for either area. So now it goes back, post CME to that
      > slowly dropping trend, which probably has more to do with what the
      > gyres are doing with SSTs, flipping warm to cold and cold to warm,
      > with the reverse of gyre direction . . . what that may mean for
      the
      > tropical season is that as those gyres move around back to warm we
      > will get cold on top, and eventually, cold to the East Pac, and a
      > positive SOI, and no shearing.
      >
      > To me, it looks like two early storms in the GOM remain probable,
      one
      > toward Texas and the one I have been calling all along, east of
      the
      > Mississippi delta, as the shearing dies and the biological
      activity
      > is expressed in feedbacks. We shall see.
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