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Re: Looks like a partial answer to our CME and SOI--

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  • fredwx
    The mointain/ocean difference in heating and cooling, much like the monsoonal flow, causes cold dry air to fall down from the mountains I don t think that
    Message 1 of 4 , May 27, 2002
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      "The mointain/ocean difference in heating and cooling, much like the
      monsoonal flow, causes cold dry air to fall down from the mountains "

      I don't think that happens to any significant extend during the
      summer months there. You do have occurances near the Gulf of
      Tehuantepec during the winter months but that is caused by strong
      high pressure over the GOM spilling over the mountains at a narrow
      point near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In this case the winds can be
      gale or storm force and extend southward for 200-300 miiles into the

      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
      > fredwx wrote:
      > > Adolph developed some 200 miles from shore and Alma some 300-350
      > > miles, both too far to have any significant mountain influence.
      > Again, I am not sure you are following what I am saying. And Alma
      > formed closer to shore and wiggled down south as it strengthened
      > mointain/ocean difference in heating and cooling, much like the
      > monsoonal flow, causes cold dry air to fall down from the
      > to the West Pac there and it really has to be a large area for a
      > couple of reasons. First reason is there has to be an area north
      > the ambiant low for fair weather voltages to have a large enough
      > to be significant. The electrical forces involved are low volume
      > high area in nature. Further, Coriolis itself is a low volume
      > area forcing. This is especially true the closer one gets to the
      > tropics. Once that cold area along those mountains forms, the
      > surface low is going to suck in winds that get right turned
      > the surface that is moving west anyway, AND there will be that
      > weather voltage to the north. I don't want to beat a dead horse,
      > you can't see this, but I do want to move on to the low east of
      > Florida.
      > Low east of Florida
      > I have noticed this low, but what I was interested in was from my
      > observations from the national map of lightening strikes that this
      > low had its fair share, first in a line parallel to the east
      > coast and then more to a center of convection. The region seems to
      > in the area of the hydrate zone underneath and there was a cold
      > that pushed out to the ocean, where the warmer waters and the
      > combined in an extra tropical manner, yet . . .
      > The Gulf Stream is running due north near Florida, and its flow is
      > very fast. A man on a raft could drift 100 miles in a day on it.
      > There is typically north or northeastern flow of clouds, AND YET
      > ocean current from most of the west portion of the North Atlantic
      > there is actually flowing in general east to west across the
      > field lines! How is that so?
      > The gyre in the North Atlantic is nothing more than a bulge of
      > about 4 feet high, and current moves down hill from it. It is off
      > centered, more to the west of the North Atlantic, but it is indeed
      > gyre. As water moves down that hill, coriolis RIGHT turns it, and
      > produces the Gulf Stream, which presents the warmest, most
      > waters that would impact cirrus. There are, of course, trade winds
      > and other currents, but I don't want to complicate things too
      > This is the significant current that is moving east to west and we
      > are not even talking about the surface winds that the storms
      > themselves bring. This is the direction, that per Fleming's right
      > hand rule, produces cirrus enhancement with an upward vector of
      > electrons, when surface lows go by.
      > Hence, if you were to additionally biologically insulate the Gulf
      > Stream underbelly with hydrates, that is where you would find the
      > most effect of cirrus enhancement, and that, in my view is why
      > often will track NE. So, it is not just that the gyre heads that
      > along the coast, with the warm SSTS, but also the electrical
      > implications. I have seen storms start to move a tiny bit west to
      > east and seen them turn extra tropical almost instantanious--
      > the dynamic is fundimentally electrical.
      > There is coriolos, and induction from colder SSTs and the stuff I
      > have been talking about which actually makes this question about
      > front developing into a storm interesting--could this become
      > Andrew?
      > However, you also may have noticed that I made a comment about
      > first storm in the E. Pac w/ its monsoonal features moved SW
      > of west and as it moved away from the mountains it has taken on
      > of a TS features.
      > The answer here is electrical as well, and all it involves is
      > clouds and sulfur. Sulfur changes the electrical dynamic of rain
      > because sulfur drops the phase change temperature of cirrus
      > which are the subject of the electrical and the IR balances--the
      > of these clouds freezing requires a MUCH colder temperature
      > of the content of sulfur or SOx from the volcanoes.
      > Any forecast without consideration of sulfer and volcanic
      > is fundimentally flawed, and with respect to Andrew, a volcanic
      > erruption of a volcano called Mt. Pinatubo altered cirrus phase
      > change temperatures around the world. A simple comparision of what
      > happened to a landfalling Bret and Andrew is all that is needed to
      > show this. Andrew was a buzz sawing hurricane and Bret stalling
      > flooding one. Yet both had the same landfalling BP AND winds and
      > occurred roughly at the same time of year.
      > What happens is the NHC measures winds on platforms at 30 feet
      > whereas the NWC measures them at three feet. Bret's winds were
      > higher and this enabled it to have less friction with the land,
      > the storm flooded and stalled, whereas Andrew bent its full fury
      > the low flat ground of Florida.
      > It also was NOT enhanced or able to lose its forward momentum as
      > had developed from a Cape Verde wave. Obviously, this low is not a
      > Cape Verde wave nor does it have any forward momentum, to the
      > contrary, the front moved SE across the US.
      > There are two main reasons we won't see an Andrew this year, even
      > from a wave, should it develop, from Cape Verde. The first is the
      > West African dams (you could add the Orinoco dams), but the second
      > we haven't seen much of a volcano for some time.
      > What rivers do is they provide detritus for methanogens to make
      > methane hydrates, a rubber like insulating substance. And Mt.
      > Pinatubo put so much sulfur in the air phase change temperatures
      > the cirrus clouds near Andrew that it essentially was able to move
      > against normal patterns dying on Miami, and dying very badly.
      > I also want to correct a mistake regarding counter currents that I
      > was speculating about here last year and before then when I was
      > thinking about electrical fields and induction. Some of the credit
      > should go to someone who works with electricity for a living--his
      > name is Alan, from OZ, from another bb. (I invited him here but he
      > too busy even to post on that other bb now). That is, in order for
      > induction to work there has to be a magnetic field strong enough
      > it to make be meaningful. And since we are talking about fair
      > and foul weather voltages creating an ocean based electrical
      > there is a field there as well as one in the ionosphere. This is
      > especially true when we start to see strikes, like we are seeing
      > this low. Anyway, the counters don't figure in the thing simply
      > because they are too cold to be as conductive as the surface or
      > thermohaline, which goes to this idea that the warmer a conducter
      > the oceans, the greater the specific conductivity.
      > ++++++++++++++
      > The resultes are in on that CME! The SOI weekend numbers are in!
      > 24-May-2002 1014.49 1013.55 -4.50 -11.38 -7.28
      > 25-May-2002 1014.55 1013.90 -6.70 -11.32 -7.28
      > 26-May-2002 1014.38 1014.10 -9.60 -11.77 -7.23
      > 27-May-2002 1015.20 1014.00 -2.50 -12.37 -7.11
      > What is interesting to me is indeed there was a bit of a jump in
      > index negitive on the 26th from the proton storm but now that it
      > gone we are left almost nuetral. Further, a TS formed in the E.
      > Adolf, which to me started with a monsoonal electrical effect of
      > dry air from the coastal mountains covering an area north of the
      > storm were positive voltage and coriolis can work their wonders,
      > an area (roughly 200 miles) where a large area forcing can occur.
      > mostly, note HP areas in both sides of the SOI--among the highest
      > pressures for either area. So now it goes back, post CME to that
      > slowly dropping trend, which probably has more to do with what the
      > gyres are doing with SSTs, flipping warm to cold and cold to warm,
      > with the reverse of gyre direction . . . what that may mean for
      > tropical season is that as those gyres move around back to warm we
      > will get cold on top, and eventually, cold to the East Pac, and a
      > positive SOI, and no shearing.
      > To me, it looks like two early storms in the GOM remain probable,
      > toward Texas and the one I have been calling all along, east of
      > Mississippi delta, as the shearing dies and the biological
      > is expressed in feedbacks. We shall see.
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