** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The fast moving CME that was ejected off of the sun on the 22nd
impacted Earth's magnetosphere at about 6:50 am EDT, touching off a
G-3 class (strong) geomagnetic storm. Although the impact was during
daylight on the east coast, there may well have been some magnificent
aurora on the west coast and in Europe. I'm sure the folks at
spaceweather.com will be posting some pictures over the next day or
two. While the geomagnetic storm has subsided for the time being,
more activity is a distinct possibility. The solar wind speed is
still over 750 km/sec, although the density is currently low. While
the geomagnetic activity has been high, solar activity has been low
over the last 24 hours, with no significant flares. Sunspot regions
9957, 9960, and 9961 have flare-producing potential. It may be hard
to spot exactly when the coronal hole solar wind gusts get here with
the solar wind speed being what it is. What we may see is a general
elevation of the solar wind speed over the next two or three days.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 229
SFI : 180
A index : 43
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 753.0 km/sec
Solar wind density : 0.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.1 nPa
IMF : 12.4 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.0 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G3 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
the S1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Regions 9957 and 9961 are
the most likely sites for isolated M-class flares. There continues to
be a slight chance for a major flare event.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels for the next 24 hours as the current disturbance wanes. No
additional shocks or CMEs are expected. The field should continue to
calm to unsettled conditions by the end of the interval. The greater
than 10 MeV proton fluxes should continue to slowly decline.
Recent significant solar flare activity :