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Re: Solar Activity Report for 5/22/02

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  • pawnfart
    Thanks B-1 for your space weather report, I am really noting this activity how it matchs the SOI (thanks Fred), how it ent toward positive strongly after it
    Message 1 of 2 , May 23, 2002
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      Thanks B-1 for your space weather report, I am really noting this
      activity how it matchs the SOI (thanks Fred), how it ent toward
      positive strongly after it was trending slowly positive to jump


      Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day Av.SOI 90 day Av.SOI

      23-May-2002 1013.43 1013.85 -14.90 -11.66 -7.27

      That CME clearly had an impact on the SOI. I think what happens, from
      what I understand what you were saying B-1, is the the first part of
      the CME brings on electrons almost at the speed of light? Now, it is
      my view that there is both sorting by SSTs AND, this is the critical
      point, currents that circulate in a manner that enhances cirrus BUT
      does so in a diffuse manner, across the globe, whereas without
      flaring, your heating aspects are going to be more driven by ambiant
      winds interacting with trade currents, all in the context of the
      biosphere's modulation. Mouthfull, I know. But what this means I
      suspect is that the proton part of the CME is ALSO going to make the
      SOI go negitive as well! We shall see.

      In any event, that SOI is dropping and there is no way it stays
      negitive for more then 15 days, which happens to time up with the
      tropical season. I still suspect that there will be SOI related
      shearing issues with the current low in the W. Carribean being
      disussed everywhere.

      I also want to say that when that SOI switches like it did we seem to
      get a breath of hot air in Redding, so I am starting to know when it
      is going go that way before I come to my computer at night. Wierd.

      I have to say that because this time of year we are moving further
      and further from the sun in the earth's elliptical orbit, it also
      seems like flaring becomes less significant. Perhaps that is why we
      don't see much rain up here in the Pac NW but see it like crazy
      during the time of year when the sun is close to the earth.

      As the forecast of the flaring cycle is down hill from here out, and
      you can really see that in the flaring cycle graph for 2003, there is
      a pretty good reason why there will NOT be an El Nino this winter
      just based on flaring's tie in with SOI. The Queensland people
      monitoring SOI have already observed that the SOI this time of year
      isn't dispositive of ENSO, whereas if it goes strongly one way in the
      spring it may indicate one is coming in the fall. That makes sense if
      the electrical properties are created with the flaring but maintained
      by the direction of current and SSTs and biological conditions
      fedback that support what is happening electrically.
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