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No El Nino over hurricane season

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  • pawnfart
    I have posted on this before, but I will do so again with some new visual interpretation. Judge it with your eyes:
    Message 1 of 1 , May 20 10:25 PM
      I have posted on this before, but I will do so again with some new
      visual interpretation. Judge it with your eyes:



      "around May 8, 1998 there were a series of large, solar disturbances
      which caused a new van Allen belt to form in the so-called 'slot
      region' between the inner and outer van Allen belts. The new belt
      eventually dissappeared once the solar activity subsided.


      My memory failed me because the comment about SSTs was indeed a
      change over that began in April, but for the effect I am describing I
      ask you to examine the SSTs from the above link from May 1998.

      What is happening here is that you have cold anomalies in the West
      tropical Pac that causes, counter intuitively, warm anomalies to
      circle in the temperate aspects of the Pacific gyres. Why? Because
      colder waters are less specifically conductive and the tops of the
      gyres move west to east, inducting against cirrus enhancement (a
      vector of electons into the oceans) relatively LESS. As cirrus are
      not reduced as much, the waters over time warm. But then, these warm
      anomalies eventually move in the gyre back to the West Pac, and cause
      it to go the other way, waters so warm they induct heavily against
      cirrus formation. This sends cold anomalies around the gyres and they
      eventually reach the east Pac and end the El Nino. One indication
      how electrical a dynamic we are talking about is to see how the El
      Nino ends with a very thin cold anomaly in the mid Pacific in the
      Equatorial--which would seem to be thermodynamically insignificant,
      yet is extremely important electrically. The same is true with how
      the warm anomalies near Peru this year, along with a Rossby wave,
      which set NOAA to calling for an El Nino, ended sharply with the same
      thin strip of cold anamalies mid Pacific.


      Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day Av.SOI 90 day Av.SOI

      16-May-2002 1010.23 1012.95 -32.50 -8.19 -4.48

      17-May-2002 1010.73 1013.05 -29.50 -9.08 -4.83

      18-May-2002 1011.15 1013.20 -27.40 -9.77 -5.20

      19-May-2002 1011.30 1012.70 -22.40 -10.12 -5.60

      20-May-2002 1011.33 1012.10 -17.60 -10.05 -5.99

      21-May-2002 1011.78 1012.15 -14.50 -10.20 -6.40

      Here is the latest SOI from the Queensland DNR. The SOI went strong
      negitive here going on 11 days. It really doesn't mean we are going
      El Niño -- it has more to do, as I discuss above, about how when the
      North and South Equatorials in the West Pac go anomaly one way or
      another as the winds and currents in the gyres shift, the cirrus
      respond and blow back things the other way. And that Equatorial
      Current is key, small in area as it is--remember to think
      electrically--a small wire can carry a huge current and a small swath
      of ocean current in the Equatorial, as warm as it is, can be very
      electrically significant for El Nino. In this case, the gyres brought
      around some cold anomalies which bring warm -- its like an inverted
      echo and IT'S ALL ELECTRICAL, BABY.

      Anyway, it's starting to decrease again, despite some pretty good
      flaring we had. The flaring distributes electrical feedbacks more
      uniformly then ocean SSTs and currents, and if anything, seems to
      bounce off cold, non conductive SSTs and enhance cirrus more . . .

      Anyway, the bottom line--NO El Niño.

      This agrees with no Rossby waves in sight, cold deep water temps off
      coast of Peru, and even break offs of yet new C class glaciers in the
      Southern Oceans.
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