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Great Link Fred--ENSO, comments about Fred's link

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  • pawnfart
    The SOI index has been negitive fairly strong, BTW, for about a week, with some strong flaring.
    Message 1 of 2 , May 16, 2002
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      The SOI index has been negitive fairly strong, BTW, for about a week,
      with some strong flaring.

      http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscil
      lationIndex/30DaySOIValues/

      But this isn't as meaningful this time of year. It is too late. The
      Queensland DNR researchers themselves say that the forecast skill of
      SOI isn't very good in the summer, too, and they limit the value of
      the index to more than 30 days. It has to do, IMHO, with lessoning
      spring to summer winds and how far away the sun is becoming on its
      elliptical path and so forth--as the process involved is very
      electrical.

      This newest state sized berg to break off in the Southern Oceans is
      interesting, too, the second in a week, as far as ENSO is concerned.
      At Daly's site there is a ENSO page written by a Dr. Theodore
      Landscheidt: http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/sun-enso.htm .

      He is a euro stat guy who has found statistical correlations between
      flaring patterns and ENSO. That's all well and good if the data
      assumptions haven't changed, but, of course, warming oceans have much
      different electrical properties.

      If you have a voltmeter, it's actually a really fun experiment. Now
      if you want to go back to grade school fun, forget the dirty jokes to
      core, play with some salt water! Measure resistance or specific
      conductivity and then nuke your salt water sample and remeasure. Fun
      fun fun.

      The southern oceans are warmer and melting glaciers, but since they
      move from east to west in the circumpolar, they are a moving
      conducter that moves AGAINST cirrus electrically. Hence, if the ocean
      are in general warmer, they conduct AGAINST cirrus more. This if fun
      because you can test for the falsity of what I am saying. If the
      oceans are warmer, to the depths, the SSTS will eventually be
      impacted by the lack of balance of IR radiation due to cloud
      behavior, and they will go cold. Same with the interior. OTOH, the
      water is warm so the glaciers break off and melt. This is especially
      true where the B-21,22 melted off because there is an eddy in that
      region which inducts FOR cirrus. That explains the 5 degree CELSUIS
      anomalies reported there with the melting. The C breakoffs and the
      warmer waters then make for cold anomalies around the circumpolar and
      that is what we indeed have.

      According to Dr. Landscheidt, warm anomalies predate ENSO by four
      months in the Southern Oceans. Well, we have cold anomalies still (no
      Rossby waves, cold temps off coast of Peru to depths and on surface,
      QBO against ENSO (which itself is an electrical feature related to
      Fleming's LEFT hand rule), and anyway, the whole point is my own
      understanding of ENSO as electrical (and biological) comports with
      the idea that as the gyres themselves heat up they bring more warm
      water especially to the western halves of the north and south
      equatorials, especially in the spring when winds peak and there those
      waters are moved by Coriolis to become part of the gyre movement away
      from the tropics. The gyres, back inducting against cirrus in still
      warmer waters, meaning that this cirrus subtraction is very very
      strong electrically, and then the SSTs cool downflow, at the poleward
      top of the gyres. Later, these SSTs spin around back to the eastern
      pacific and El Nino doesn't stand a chance. Throw in melting bergs
      and just forget it. If you go to NOAA's ENSO site you can actually
      see the warm bulge of water that goes warm then cold anomaly with the
      direction wind shift, right from their data. It's all there for those
      NOAA folks, they just aren't trained in electromagnetical behavior or
      understand how powerful a forcing clouds and specifically cirrus
      clouds provide.

      So now when we have a week of SOI that is negitive, it really doesn't
      matter. We will have La Nada or La Nino this winter--no El Nino.
      Indeed, Landscheidt and his stats better be recalculated based on a
      changing experience base--I would pick a time frame that would
      include warmer oceans from Milankovitch insolation variations of
      12,500 to 7,000 years ago BP, when according to coring data from
      Equadorian lake beds there were NO El Ninos.

      A lack of El Nino is going to be very hard on specific regions that
      rely on ENSO to provide "chaotic" stimulas to the biosphere. This is
      an unmitigated ecological and biological catastrophy.


      Interestingly, the Mt. Pinatubo erruption released large quantities
      of SOx emissions. This dropped the phase change temperature of cirrus
      clouds, and global cooling resulted. Oceans cooled--but in this
      context of climate change. When the system reheated, we had a 500
      year El Nino. Counter intuitively, in the Southern Ocean those colder
      oceans meant LESS induction AGAINST cirrus, which equated to warmer
      SSTs and those SSTs wound into the Eastern Pacific. Boom. Monster El
      Nino.

      This, IMHO, is an example of how when the biosphere has balanced the
      chaotic features with the proper biological feedbacks. If El Nino
      does not occur, places like Los Angeles completely dry out and what
      imput to the biosphere they may have will go as well. The cycle is
      also important to places like OZ as well, where fires burned last
      winter.
      ****

      A hydrologist I email exchange with gives this report:


      "[M]ajor flooding on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers continues to
      grow, and will reach the Dead Zone in the next few weeks."

      I have been teaching him all about hydrates! He's learning well and
      giving me really good river info. The GOM will be cane happy soon.

      ****

      Twister season, for the big ones anyway, is about done. Relatively
      colder waters, ironically, reaching the gyres in circling the same
      area in which the warmer waters caused in the north part of the gyre
      cold anomalies now produces warm anomalies. Plus China's Yangtze is
      doing well, which I will discuss more below.

      I know this is confusing, but just got to

      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

      and compare SSTs now to in March.

      ******


      Is the NE drought over for now from biological standpoint?

      The following is the best Gaia supporting data link I have seen from
      the government yet:

      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
      3?topic=unique



      Places to check out would be the Yangtze delta. Understand the
      Yangtze is the fourth largest river in the world in terms of
      sedimentation. Three Gorge, the dam project there that is to be the
      largest in the world, or the biggest crap trap in the world, has
      poorly designed sedimentation outlits. It is set to open in 2009.
      Climate is going to get killed that year--that's a solid forecast.
      Already the diversion in November 1997 along with the the flood plain
      resettlement plan, which moved literally millions of Chinese to the
      delta, and then caused many small delta sediment retaining projects,
      which hence caused a drought in the Pacific NW and in part caused
      Great Lake levels to drop to Dust Bowl era levels (of course the CAP
      and the Colorado didn't help the Great Lakes, either). Now that
      there has been some stability gained after the commotion of this, the
      Yangtze is kicking out sediments and if you combine the electrically
      insulating properties of this along with what I described above about
      colder SSTs paradoxically causing the northern portion of the North
      Pacific gyre to produce more cirrus, and hence produce warm water
      anomalies.

      This spells the end of the N/S heat contrast that drives the most
      severe weather (read as F-5 tornadoes) in the spring. But it also
      spells the start of the tropical season. It also may mean more of an
      El Nino leaning SOI, but this won't last and it will come from the
      North Pacific side only, not the South Pacific side where yet another
      berg has calved into the Southern Oceans and river activity isn't so
      much of an issue. Yet this leaning doesn't mean we will see an El
      Nino, as I discussed above.




      The Mississippi and its delta subsisting and all the biological
      activity all winter long in the GOM provided precipatation for the
      Great Lakes. This is very good news for the NE and its drought from
      a biological standpoint. It's springtime, and less water is diverted
      over Niagara Falls for tourists, and upwelling is occurring because
      the waters along the NE coast got SO cold. A recent storm also sent
      fresh water flowing to the coast. Now, as seen in the above link,
      there is an algae bloom. All of these indications will prove to be
      biologically significant for the east coast and we will see greater
      probability of rain.

      If you look at the most recent SST anomaly along the NE from this
      link:

      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/climo.html

      You can see light blue patchs, which I realize are cool anomalies,
      but they are replacing black. That means that the cloud dynamic of
      low clouds and high clouds, just owing from the change in biological
      activity, has shifted. Watch this area in the next few weeks.
      However, now that the sping is giving way to summer, will winds and
      ambiant winds provide enough for a return to normal? We shall see--
      this is the danger of messing with the biosphere, because you
      seperate the biological feedback loops from the stimulas. It is not
      stimulas response as the biology intended by stimulas delay response--
      a defect in feedback loops.

      Math is easy. Assumptions and visualization of a description that
      cuts to the chase--that is tough.

      Maxwell's laws are some of science's most difficult to understand and
      apply.

      Lightning cracks and for a breif instant in time a current flows from
      the ionosphere to the ocean and along the ocean surface, mostly,
      where it is warmest and most conductive. Some of that electrical
      energy flows in the water vapor in the air, too. This flow comes in
      the context of fair weather positive voltage to ground and in the
      context of the insulative character of the lower atmosphere, as well
      as the electrical aspects of the solar wind.

      The electrical field itself, while concentrated in the burst of
      lighting, will act in relation to the earth's magnetic field. But as
      the current spreads and travels, the smaller subsets of its current
      do invariably become an extension of that field. And that is the
      context of the moving currents of the oceans, the gyres. These
      currents are moving conducters through electro/magnetic fields that
      provide the variance of import to capacitive movements of cirrus
      clouds, that like a chicken and egg, provide for more moisture and
      warm conditions or not, underneath these clouds, making for more or
      less cirrus, whose cummulative effect varies SSTs and precip
      patterns.

      I fully realize that I have reasoned backwards from the SSTs to the
      electrical, backwards from Lindzen's iris data and so forth. Part of
      the problem is practical. There are no good measures of the earth's
      magnetic field in the region of a strike. Merely using the earth's
      magnetic field and the conducter of the ocean isn't enough to
      generate significant currents. Consider this link to an abstract
      about measurable induction by ocean currents:

      http://www.gfdl.gov/~gth/netscape/1992/dbs9201.html

      However, what this links shows is that despite the bursts of fields
      from strikes the orientation of the earth's magnetic field is
      retained. Hence, even as regional bursts of lightning distort that
      field, it is reasonable to surmise that the unmeasurable change as it
      pertains to cirrus also is framed in orientation like the earth's.


      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
      > Note the phytoplankton bloom:
      >
      >
      http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php
      > 3?img_id=3641
      >
      > In the same area as the colder SST's:
      >
      >
      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.13.20
      > 02.gif
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