Great Link Fred--ENSO, comments about Fred's link
- The SOI index has been negitive fairly strong, BTW, for about a week,
with some strong flaring.
But this isn't as meaningful this time of year. It is too late. The
Queensland DNR researchers themselves say that the forecast skill of
SOI isn't very good in the summer, too, and they limit the value of
the index to more than 30 days. It has to do, IMHO, with lessoning
spring to summer winds and how far away the sun is becoming on its
elliptical path and so forth--as the process involved is very
This newest state sized berg to break off in the Southern Oceans is
interesting, too, the second in a week, as far as ENSO is concerned.
At Daly's site there is a ENSO page written by a Dr. Theodore
Landscheidt: http://www.john-daly.com/sun-enso/sun-enso.htm .
He is a euro stat guy who has found statistical correlations between
flaring patterns and ENSO. That's all well and good if the data
assumptions haven't changed, but, of course, warming oceans have much
different electrical properties.
If you have a voltmeter, it's actually a really fun experiment. Now
if you want to go back to grade school fun, forget the dirty jokes to
core, play with some salt water! Measure resistance or specific
conductivity and then nuke your salt water sample and remeasure. Fun
The southern oceans are warmer and melting glaciers, but since they
move from east to west in the circumpolar, they are a moving
conducter that moves AGAINST cirrus electrically. Hence, if the ocean
are in general warmer, they conduct AGAINST cirrus more. This if fun
because you can test for the falsity of what I am saying. If the
oceans are warmer, to the depths, the SSTS will eventually be
impacted by the lack of balance of IR radiation due to cloud
behavior, and they will go cold. Same with the interior. OTOH, the
water is warm so the glaciers break off and melt. This is especially
true where the B-21,22 melted off because there is an eddy in that
region which inducts FOR cirrus. That explains the 5 degree CELSUIS
anomalies reported there with the melting. The C breakoffs and the
warmer waters then make for cold anomalies around the circumpolar and
that is what we indeed have.
According to Dr. Landscheidt, warm anomalies predate ENSO by four
months in the Southern Oceans. Well, we have cold anomalies still (no
Rossby waves, cold temps off coast of Peru to depths and on surface,
QBO against ENSO (which itself is an electrical feature related to
Fleming's LEFT hand rule), and anyway, the whole point is my own
understanding of ENSO as electrical (and biological) comports with
the idea that as the gyres themselves heat up they bring more warm
water especially to the western halves of the north and south
equatorials, especially in the spring when winds peak and there those
waters are moved by Coriolis to become part of the gyre movement away
from the tropics. The gyres, back inducting against cirrus in still
warmer waters, meaning that this cirrus subtraction is very very
strong electrically, and then the SSTs cool downflow, at the poleward
top of the gyres. Later, these SSTs spin around back to the eastern
pacific and El Nino doesn't stand a chance. Throw in melting bergs
and just forget it. If you go to NOAA's ENSO site you can actually
see the warm bulge of water that goes warm then cold anomaly with the
direction wind shift, right from their data. It's all there for those
NOAA folks, they just aren't trained in electromagnetical behavior or
understand how powerful a forcing clouds and specifically cirrus
So now when we have a week of SOI that is negitive, it really doesn't
matter. We will have La Nada or La Nino this winter--no El Nino.
Indeed, Landscheidt and his stats better be recalculated based on a
changing experience base--I would pick a time frame that would
include warmer oceans from Milankovitch insolation variations of
12,500 to 7,000 years ago BP, when according to coring data from
Equadorian lake beds there were NO El Ninos.
A lack of El Nino is going to be very hard on specific regions that
rely on ENSO to provide "chaotic" stimulas to the biosphere. This is
an unmitigated ecological and biological catastrophy.
Interestingly, the Mt. Pinatubo erruption released large quantities
of SOx emissions. This dropped the phase change temperature of cirrus
clouds, and global cooling resulted. Oceans cooled--but in this
context of climate change. When the system reheated, we had a 500
year El Nino. Counter intuitively, in the Southern Ocean those colder
oceans meant LESS induction AGAINST cirrus, which equated to warmer
SSTs and those SSTs wound into the Eastern Pacific. Boom. Monster El
This, IMHO, is an example of how when the biosphere has balanced the
chaotic features with the proper biological feedbacks. If El Nino
does not occur, places like Los Angeles completely dry out and what
imput to the biosphere they may have will go as well. The cycle is
also important to places like OZ as well, where fires burned last
A hydrologist I email exchange with gives this report:
"[M]ajor flooding on the Illinois and Mississippi Rivers continues to
grow, and will reach the Dead Zone in the next few weeks."
I have been teaching him all about hydrates! He's learning well and
giving me really good river info. The GOM will be cane happy soon.
Twister season, for the big ones anyway, is about done. Relatively
colder waters, ironically, reaching the gyres in circling the same
area in which the warmer waters caused in the north part of the gyre
cold anomalies now produces warm anomalies. Plus China's Yangtze is
doing well, which I will discuss more below.
I know this is confusing, but just got to
and compare SSTs now to in March.
Is the NE drought over for now from biological standpoint?
The following is the best Gaia supporting data link I have seen from
the government yet:
Places to check out would be the Yangtze delta. Understand the
Yangtze is the fourth largest river in the world in terms of
sedimentation. Three Gorge, the dam project there that is to be the
largest in the world, or the biggest crap trap in the world, has
poorly designed sedimentation outlits. It is set to open in 2009.
Climate is going to get killed that year--that's a solid forecast.
Already the diversion in November 1997 along with the the flood plain
resettlement plan, which moved literally millions of Chinese to the
delta, and then caused many small delta sediment retaining projects,
which hence caused a drought in the Pacific NW and in part caused
Great Lake levels to drop to Dust Bowl era levels (of course the CAP
and the Colorado didn't help the Great Lakes, either). Now that
there has been some stability gained after the commotion of this, the
Yangtze is kicking out sediments and if you combine the electrically
insulating properties of this along with what I described above about
colder SSTs paradoxically causing the northern portion of the North
Pacific gyre to produce more cirrus, and hence produce warm water
This spells the end of the N/S heat contrast that drives the most
severe weather (read as F-5 tornadoes) in the spring. But it also
spells the start of the tropical season. It also may mean more of an
El Nino leaning SOI, but this won't last and it will come from the
North Pacific side only, not the South Pacific side where yet another
berg has calved into the Southern Oceans and river activity isn't so
much of an issue. Yet this leaning doesn't mean we will see an El
Nino, as I discussed above.
The Mississippi and its delta subsisting and all the biological
activity all winter long in the GOM provided precipatation for the
Great Lakes. This is very good news for the NE and its drought from
a biological standpoint. It's springtime, and less water is diverted
over Niagara Falls for tourists, and upwelling is occurring because
the waters along the NE coast got SO cold. A recent storm also sent
fresh water flowing to the coast. Now, as seen in the above link,
there is an algae bloom. All of these indications will prove to be
biologically significant for the east coast and we will see greater
probability of rain.
If you look at the most recent SST anomaly along the NE from this
You can see light blue patchs, which I realize are cool anomalies,
but they are replacing black. That means that the cloud dynamic of
low clouds and high clouds, just owing from the change in biological
activity, has shifted. Watch this area in the next few weeks.
However, now that the sping is giving way to summer, will winds and
ambiant winds provide enough for a return to normal? We shall see--
this is the danger of messing with the biosphere, because you
seperate the biological feedback loops from the stimulas. It is not
stimulas response as the biology intended by stimulas delay response--
a defect in feedback loops.
Math is easy. Assumptions and visualization of a description that
cuts to the chase--that is tough.
Maxwell's laws are some of science's most difficult to understand and
Lightning cracks and for a breif instant in time a current flows from
the ionosphere to the ocean and along the ocean surface, mostly,
where it is warmest and most conductive. Some of that electrical
energy flows in the water vapor in the air, too. This flow comes in
the context of fair weather positive voltage to ground and in the
context of the insulative character of the lower atmosphere, as well
as the electrical aspects of the solar wind.
The electrical field itself, while concentrated in the burst of
lighting, will act in relation to the earth's magnetic field. But as
the current spreads and travels, the smaller subsets of its current
do invariably become an extension of that field. And that is the
context of the moving currents of the oceans, the gyres. These
currents are moving conducters through electro/magnetic fields that
provide the variance of import to capacitive movements of cirrus
clouds, that like a chicken and egg, provide for more moisture and
warm conditions or not, underneath these clouds, making for more or
less cirrus, whose cummulative effect varies SSTs and precip
I fully realize that I have reasoned backwards from the SSTs to the
electrical, backwards from Lindzen's iris data and so forth. Part of
the problem is practical. There are no good measures of the earth's
magnetic field in the region of a strike. Merely using the earth's
magnetic field and the conducter of the ocean isn't enough to
generate significant currents. Consider this link to an abstract
about measurable induction by ocean currents:
However, what this links shows is that despite the bursts of fields
from strikes the orientation of the earth's magnetic field is
retained. Hence, even as regional bursts of lightning distort that
field, it is reasonable to surmise that the unmeasurable change as it
pertains to cirrus also is framed in orientation like the earth's.
--- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
> Note the phytoplankton bloom:
> In the same area as the colder SST's: