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Solar Activity Report for 5/14/02

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  • b1blancer_29501
    Sometime in the last 24 hours, the CME from the M-class flare of 5/11 swept past Earth. I say sometime in the last 24 hours because the solar wind speed has
    Message 1 of 1 , May 14, 2002
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      Sometime in the last 24 hours, the CME from the M-class flare of 5/11
      swept past Earth. I say sometime in the last 24 hours because the
      solar wind speed has been elevated and gusty for several days now, and
      pinpointing the exact moment of impact is difficult. The CME arrival
      triggered a short-lived G-2 geomagnetic storm. That activity has
      since subsided, although the solar wind speed and density are still
      high this evening. Sunspot region 9934, which was the source of all
      the activity, has now rotated over the western limb of the solar disk.
      Sunspot regions 9945 and 9948 may have a chance of kicking off an
      M-class flare.

      The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :

      NOAA sunspot number : 134
      SFI : 161
      A index : 27
      K index : 3

      Solar wind speed : 414.8 km/sec
      Solar wind density : 7.2 protons/cc
      Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa

      IMF : 5.5 nT
      IMF Orientation : 2.7 nT North

      Conditions for the last 24 hours :
      Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
      storms reaching the G2 level occurred.

      Forecast for the next 24 hours :
      Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
      blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.

      Solar activity forecast :
      Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9945 and
      region 9948 have the potential for low level M-class activity.

      Geomagnetic activity forecast :
      The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated
      active conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period,
      particularly at higher latitudes.

      Recent significant solar flare activity :
      None
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