Solar Activity Report for 5/14/02
- Sometime in the last 24 hours, the CME from the M-class flare of 5/11
swept past Earth. I say sometime in the last 24 hours because the
solar wind speed has been elevated and gusty for several days now, and
pinpointing the exact moment of impact is difficult. The CME arrival
triggered a short-lived G-2 geomagnetic storm. That activity has
since subsided, although the solar wind speed and density are still
high this evening. Sunspot region 9934, which was the source of all
the activity, has now rotated over the western limb of the solar disk.
Sunspot regions 9945 and 9948 may have a chance of kicking off an
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 134
SFI : 161
A index : 27
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 414.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 7.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa
IMF : 5.5 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.7 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9945 and
region 9948 have the potential for low level M-class activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated
active conditions are possible on day one of the forecast period,
particularly at higher latitudes.
Recent significant solar flare activity :