Re: Solar Activity Report for 5/12/02
- Here is the SOI index for the last two days:
11-May-2002 1006.46 1009.60 -35.70 -4.20 -2.55
12-May-2002 1009.41 1011.00 -23.80 -4.92 -3.11
Of interest is the two tropical storms to the west of the tropical
Pacific and the Darwin BP dropping then now rising but with this
flaring the Tahita BP rising, otherwise we may have gone back to
zero. I suspect that if the tropical storms take some energy out of
the SSTs to the west of the Pacific we may see some trending back to
an El Nino SOI but we are now in the East Pac hurricane season and so
the Eastern Pacific is going to have a chance to cool with these
storms. We shall see.
--- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "b1blancer_29501" <b1blancer1@e...>
> An unexpected shock wave surged past Earth's magnetosphere Saturdaytouch
> morning, and kicked up the solar wind speed substantially in the
> process. A G-2 (moderate) geomagnetic storm was triggered by the
> event, which has since subsided. The storm was strong enough to
> off aurora. This picture was taken near Quebec City, Canada.http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/aurora/images/11may02/moussette3.
> . The solar wind speed is still elevated. While an official auroraSunspot
> watch is not in effect, I wouldn't be surprised if there were more
> aurora spotted this evening. There was an M-class flare yesterday,
> and we could be seeing the CME from that arrive here at Earth in a
> couple of days. Stay tuned for more information about that.
> region 9934 is close to the western limb of the solar disk, butstill
> has the potential of producing a major flare.Isolated
> The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
> NOAA sunspot number : 210
> SFI : 183
> A index : 14
> K index : 4
> Solar wind speed : 471.2 km/sec
> Solar wind density : 2.7 protons/cc
> Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa
> IMF : 5.1 nT
> IMF Orientation : 2.5 nT South
> Conditions for the last 24 hours :
> No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
> Forecast for the next 24 hours :
> Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
> blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
> Solar activity forecast :
> Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9934 and
> Region 9937 have the potential for M-class events.
> Geomagnetic activity forecast :
> The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
> active to minor storm conditions are possible on day two and threeof
> the forecast period due to CME effects from the M1/Sf flare on11/1132
> Recent significant solar flare activity :
> 11-May-2002 1132Z M1.4