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Re: L.A. drought--4" to date, lowest year to date in record/hydrated view

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  • pawnfart
    Fred, Let me respond to both of your posts. This link: http://crwua.mwd.dst.ca.us/lor/crwua_lor.htm gives some history of water use before the 1930s and it is
    Message 1 of 7 , May 6, 2002
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      Fred,

      Let me respond to both of your posts.

      This link:

      http://crwua.mwd.dst.ca.us/lor/crwua_lor.htm

      gives some history of water use before the 1930s and it is clear that
      there was diversions, including in 1932 for the Hoover dam. Then
      there is the Imperial Valley Salt Lake deal and the water use issues
      of the 7 states and Mexico. Don't forget that there are two other
      main rivers--the Rio and the Mississippi. This history shows the tie
      in between the Rio and the Colorado and the water use fight. But the
      Mississippi is key, too. Understand at this point over the past 10
      years or so the Mississippi is going the other way--with too much sed
      and flow comparted to the Colorado and Rio.

      The Mississippi has changed its course numerous times by human
      activity in the past (there are, of course, natural changes). Many of
      the man made changes occurred upstream before 1924, to prevent local
      flooding and erosion. But on the delta itself a major change occurred
      in 1924, when the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal, or the Industrial
      Canal was opened, linking the Mississippi River with a "lake." The
      Army Corps of Engineers built spillways, that prevent breaks, that
      can be opened if New Orleans is threatened by a flood crest. Much of
      the water that flows into Lake Pontchartrain comes as a result of man-
      made operations. Then in 1931 the Corps of Engineers built the Bonnet
      Carre Spillway.

      The timing of these major changes to the rivers matches perfectly
      with the Dust Bowl, only altered in minor ways by ENSO.

      As far as there being other factors, I again would point to the
      Keeling Whorf and Fu papers in terms of the inverse relationship
      between cloud wieghted SSTs and cirrus and say that the forcing from
      clouds is extremely significant and controlling--otherwise no Gaia
      and we wouldn't be here. The forcing from cirrus also should be
      thought of as modulating. Therefore, the cold oceans and
      thermohaline is a product of modulation, not that STTs are a normal
      state where chaotic events alter them. So what we have here is a
      changing modulation based on a key forcing changing, not some chaotic
      event in the context of chaotic behavior. The problem is much
      different than that.

      --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
      > You said "First, warmer oceans mean that they are more specifically
      > conductive--less resistive to electrical currents. This is related
      to
      > the cold SSTs to the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence,
      > provides less rain to S. Cal."
      >
      > SST's are below normal over the eastern North Pacific and I agree
      > that the dry weather is a likely result.
      >
      >
      http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.30.20
      > 02.gif
      >
      > ....but there could be other reasons for this besides electrical
      > currents.
      >
      >
      >
      >
      >
      > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
      > > L.A. is having the driest year since records were recorded--four
      > > inches of rain so far.
      > >
      > > Last year it was decided to take run off from excess spring rains
      > > that over flow from Lake Mead and run them to California. This
      was
      > > despite the damage already caused by CAP--see
      > > http://www.geocities.com/NapaValley/8339/CAP.html That decision
      > looks
      > > pretty dumb from where I sit.
      > >
      > > But there is also an issue of warmer oceans. Warmer, again, means
      > > more conductive, and for west to east moving currents, it means
      > less
      > > cirrus.
      > >
      > > No El Nino is also hard on S. Cal rain conditions.
      > >
      > > So is 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past 30 years,
      culminated
      > > with the Three Gorge diversion and relocation to the delta, and
      > delta
      > > sedimentation retention projects for land for these people to
      live.
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > Here are some thoughts back, first in cryptic form and then
      perhaps
      > > some code breaking background--I hope it communicates. First,
      > warmer
      > > oceans mean that they are more specifically conductive--less
      > > resistive to electrical currents. This is related to the cold
      SSTs
      > to
      > > the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence, provides less
      rain
      > > to S. Cal. That is because a more conductive ocean cuts both
      ways,
      > > including an idea that currents moving from west to east will
      > induct
      > > against cirrus enhancement per the IR measures discussed in
      Lindzen
      > > and Fu's papers (yes, they ignore direction of current in their
      > > papers but their data is solid if not their mechanism
      conclusions).
      > > Second, 30,000 dams have been built in Asia over the past 30
      years,
      > > culminated by Three Gorge. That means more electrical leakage or
      > less
      > > Gaia insulation. Third, recent changes in output from Lake Mead,
      > > although not the same as building Hoover and creating a Dust
      Bowl,
      > > have had significant impact on SW climate. Specifically, recently
      a
      > > controversy arose relative to the American Mexican treaty over
      > water
      > > to the Gulf of California and the health of the estuary as it
      > > pertained to these dolphins there, and the Mexicans asked that
      > > spring "overspill" from Lake Mead continue, and the Americans
      > elected
      > > to send this water to California via ducts. Not wise--as it has
      > > caused record dry conditions in the region--to include mountains
      in
      > > S. Cal that eventually run off S. Cal rivers to methane hydrate
      > > fields along the S. Cal coast. From a biological standpoint,
      > > conditions are very electrically poor for S. Cal and it is
      starting
      > > to show in poor rainfall amounts
      > >
      > > .....
      > >
      > > The microbiology and chemistry of hydrate formation throws in
      great
      > > complexity in the methanogens role in climate. In my view, as
      most
      > of
      > > you know, the oceans and climate is much more of a living,
      > biological
      > > process than many consider it to be. The complexity confuses many
      > > against seeing the biological aspect. One reason is that methane
      > > hydrate only forms provided extreme conditions AND CONCENTRATIONS
      > of
      > > methane are satisfied. This means there must be lots of methane
      > > concentrated in one place or the methane just dissolves in the
      > water
      > > without forming the ice crystal. There is a good example to see
      how
      > > this is true by experiment. CO2 also forms an additional gas
      > hydrate
      > > similar to methane hydrates, and researchers have designed, for
      > > instance, a torpedo shaped block of frozen CO2, which turns out
      to
      > be
      > > denser than ocean water, that when released from a ship, will
      fall
      > to
      > > the sand at the depths of the ocean and get wedged into it--then
      > form
      > > CO2 hydrate, that although as a hydrate is less dense than the
      > water,
      > > as buried in sand will be 'heavy' enough to stay there. This is
      > > actually a patented idea as a way of carbon sequestration.
      Anyway,
      > > methane hydrate researchers looking into this type of thing have
      > > taken CO2 down to the depths, under 1,280 feet, in robots and
      > > released it in concentrated form. The CO2 spills out and forms a
      > gas
      > > hydrate. But right next to the hydrate is are fish swimming
      about--
      > in
      > > a picture taken of this process! So, the CO2 coming out of their
      > > gills doesn't turn to hydrate, and the O2 they must breath into
      > their
      > > gills isn't ice! A type of protein has evolved in fish that
      > prevents
      > > hydrates from forming! Hence, the archaebacteria, in the
      symbiotic
      > > process to make methane for hydrates in the intermediate depths
      of
      > > the oceans, must make it in sufficient concentrations for it to
      > form.
      > > This sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
      > > biological conditions must first exist for the microbrial
      activity
      > to
      > > be sufficient to form sufficient concentrations for it to form.
      > This
      > > sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
      biological
      > > conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity to be
      > > sufficient to form significant hydrate activity.
      > >
      > > For instance, look at the history of the Younger Dryas and
      current
      > > dogma about its cause fresh water capping from the diversion of
      the
      > > Mississippi headwaters to the east to the N. Atlantic. A river
      > fresh
      > > off a glacier, I suspect, doesn't biologically cut it. And if a
      > river
      > > that once flowed out of huge glacial lakes then becomes
      > substantially
      > > less flowing, with less sedimentation and detritus, then the
      > hydrate
      > > activity will substantially decrease.
      > >
      > >
      > > In this case, the significant change is relative to the Gulf of
      > > California. Hydrates are located there:
      > >
      > > http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html
      > >
      > > They don't form in shallows--they require 1,275 feet of water or
      > > more.
      > >
      > > They are found on the US west coast as far south as off the coast
      > of
      > > Santa Barbara. Understand the counter current would move
      NORTHWEST.
      > > So, applicable to what I am talking about, they are found IN THE
      > GULF
      > > OF CALIFORNIA.
      > >
      > >
      > > http://www.dri.edu/Projects/Monsoon/3empirical.html
      > >
      > > The monsoon in the SW depends on the surface temperatures of the
      > > waters in the Gulf of California.
      > >
      > > Waters from the tropics in that region tend to move along the
      coast
      > > in a NW manner and peel off west with the N. Pacific gyre.
      > >
      > > The study involved non-El Nino period so that wind direction of
      > > consequence is generally constant for the study. This leave a
      > > question what varied the SSTs. As I have tried to explain, SSTs
      are
      > > MODULATED by the biosphere with energies from IR movements by
      > cirrus
      > > cloud behavior that can change energies absorbed in the range of
      > > between 50 and 200 watts per meter squared per Lindzen and Fu's
      > > papers. Over time scales of a few weeks, this kind of energy is
      > > sufficient to move SSTs!
      > >
      > > What I would like to do is talk for a moment about Keeling Whorf
      > > (K/W) and tidal changes. IMHO, tides not only alter how the
      oceans
      > > move against the beaches, but also how currents move in the
      > > intermediate oceans. While K/W is not much of a factor right now
      on
      > > these kind of timescales it is illistrative of the feedback
      > involved
      > > on shorter periods by way of example.
      > >
      > > I have talked about depressurization of hydrates from K/W before,
      > but
      > > there is also an idea of simple melting from changes in ocean
      > > currents. If there is a lot of sloshing around, to put it
      crudely,
      > > than underneath the gyres, which are the warmest and hence most
      > > electrically significant aspect of climate, than the swath of
      > hydrate
      > > activity underneath the gyres is going to be melted to a larger
      > > extent. That means more electrical leakage. It would be like
      having
      > > MS--the myolin sheaths of nerve tissues becoming defective--the
      > > biological signal to climate is short circuited. Here is a blurb
      > from
      > > K/Ws paper:
      > >
      > >
      > >
      > > "The IRD event (number 5) near 8,100 yr BP is particularly
      > noteworthy
      > > because it appears to be associated with the most abrupt and
      > > widespread climate shift known from the past 10 kyr (10); it is
      > > believed to have been initiated by a large freshwater pulse from
      > > Laurentide lakes, dated at 8,470 yr BP, that reduced surface
      ocean
      > > salinity in the North Atlantic Ocean, thereby causing widespread
      > > cooling near 8,200 yr BP (11). Two recently drilled sedimentary
      > cores
      > > show multiple IRD events between 8,300 and 7,400 yr BP (ref. 1,
      > Fig.
      > > 14). Together with the Elk Lake dust layer of 7,800 yr BP, these
      > data
      > > suggest prolonged or repeated cooling well beyond the time
      expected
      > > for a freshwater discharge to directly affect climate. The
      maximum
      > > tidal forcing near these events at 7,744 yr BP was the greatest
      in
      > > 20,000 years, preceded and succeeded by strong forcing at 8,089
      and
      > > 7,381 yr BP of the 360-yr tidal cycle. Thus the tidal hypothesis
      > > suggests that cooling initiated by a freshwater pulse may have
      been
      > > prolonged by tidal forcing. Also consistent with tidal forcing is
      > the
      > > possibility that the timing of the freshwater pulse occurred
      during
      > a
      > > warm phase of the 1,800-year tidal cycle, about 700 years before
      > > maximum forcing at 7,744 yr BP. "
      > >
      > > See figure
      > >
      > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/8/3814/F7
      > >
      > > Both quote and figure from:
      > >
      > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197
      > >
      > > A mudslide of 8,000 years ago must be put into perspective of the
      > > Keeling Whorf research--and I think is somewhat related to the
      > > Younger Dryas in that the feedbacks out of the glacial hadn't
      > reached
      > > the biological stability we have today after the interglacial has
      > > persisted as long as it has:
      > >
      > > October 5 2000 12:12 PM ET Seabed Gas Crystal Formations Linked
      to
      > > Tsunami
      > >
      > > By Todd Eastham
      > >
      > >
      > > WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About 8,000 years ago, a massive undersea
      > > landslide off the coast of Norway sent a 30-foot wall of water --
      a
      > > tsunami wave -- barreling into the northern coast of Europe.
      > >
      > > If this were to recur today, as scientists say it could, almost
      > > anywhere in the world, it would cost billions if not tens of
      > billions
      > > of dollars to repair the damage to coastal cities. And the cost
      in
      > > lives could be far higher.
      > >
      > > ``A tsunami like that would wash into the Baltic with some
      > > devastation,'' said scientist Charles Paull at the Monterey Bay
      > > Aquarium Research Institute in Moss Landing, California.
      > >
      > > While scientists who study the so-called Storegga Slide with the
      > > tools of geology, biology and seismography are not sure what
      > > triggered it, they are fairly certain a mysterious crystalline
      > solid
      > > composed of water molecules intertwined with methane gas, known
      as
      > > methane or gas hydrates, played a role.
      > >
      > > Paull says an earthquake might have triggered the slide, which
      > > occurred in stages over hundreds of years, removing an enormous
      > chunk
      > > from Norway's continental margin. But its magnitude suggests
      > methane
      > > hydrates played a role.
      > >
      > > ``Whatever the trigger,'' he said in a phone interview, ``this is
      a
      > > natural disaster related to gas hydrates.''
      > >
      > > Methane hydrates, which scientists are studying as a possible
      vast
      > > global energy resource, are among the weirdest natural phenomena.
      > > Sometimes called ``flammable ice,'' they are just that: highly
      > > unstable and combustible crystallized solids existing only in a
      > high
      > > pressure/low temperature environment.
      > >
      > > Discovered by accident late in the 19th century by oil and gas
      > > exploration teams just below the Arctic permafrost, the odd
      > crystals
      > > are thought to contain more clean-burning fossil fuels than
      Earth's
      > > reserves of oil, natural gas and coal combined.
      > >
      > > Equally important is the key role they appear to play in the
      global
      > > climate and marine environment, as well as the occasional
      > cataclysmic
      > > undersea event.
      > >
      > > Acting director John Farrell said the Ocean Drilling Program's 15-
      > > year series of expeditions to explore the ocean floor had
      uncovered
      > > evidence that gas hydrates have spilled into the ocean in massive
      > > bursts repeatedly over the last 50,000 years. Evidence in tiny
      > > plankton shells called ``forams'' show ``a chemical change in the
      > > world's oceans that can only be explained by a lot of methane
      being
      > > injected into the water.''
      > >
      > > Enormous Implications For World Climate
      > >
      > > Events of that kind have enormous implications for global climate
      > > change because methane is a potent greenhouse gas. A large enough
      > > release of methane, as in the Storegga Slide, could bring on or
      > > accelerate a cycle of global warming.
      > >
      > > Warming cycles might already have been underway when such slides
      > > occurred, triggered by some as-yet-unknown mechanism that warmed
      > the
      > > oceans enough to destabilize gas hydrates, which dissolve when
      > > temperatures rise or pressures decrease.
      > >
      > > While release of methane from beneath the ocean floor could lead
      to
      > a
      > > vicious cycle of warming, Paull and other scientists caution
      there
      > is
      > > more at play. Rising sea levels would actually increase pressures
      > on
      > > those hydrate deposits, locking them in and perhaps leading to a
      > > reverse cooling cycle.
      > >
      > > Whatever role they have played in the cycles of global climate
      > > change -- as well as chemical changes in the oceans -- it is
      clear
      > > that research into these odd combustible undersea ice formations
      is
      > > essential to understanding planet Earth.
      > >
      > > In time, such research could lead to a way to predict or at least
      > > calculate the risk of events like the Storegga Slide.
      > >
      > > ``If we understand what happened in the past, then we're in a
      > better
      > > position to anticipate the future,'' said Farrell.
      > >
      > > ``What we first have to do is make sure we know where these gas
      > > hydrate layers are,'' through research like that being done by
      the
      > > ODP, a partnership with seven international consortia
      representing
      > > more than 20 countries. ``Then if we know about any factors that
      > > affect the temperature and pressure .... we might ultimately
      reduce
      > > the uncertainty'' about where and when the continental margins
      > might
      > > collapse and trigger tsunami.
      > >
      > > The world's largest Earth science research project, the ODP is
      > > administered by the Joint Oceanographic Institutions funded in
      part
      > > by the National Science Foundation. It will target an area off
      > Oregon
      > > in its next gas hydrate expedition, in 2002. "
      > > .....
      > >
      > > What I think should be appreciated about Keeling Whorf and the
      > > Younger Dryas is that the Mississippi lost its glacial lake
      > sourcing,
      > > so the microbrial biosphere lost its source of "food" in the GOM.
      > The
      > > water then flowed to the N. Pacific in a fairly inactive way,
      > > biologically speaking, to a part of the ocean with little
      > biological
      > > activity. Hence, the change that occurred initially to mark the
      > cold
      > > snap of the Younger Dryas wasn't so much about fresh water
      capping
      > as
      > > it was about a significant change to the intermediate ocean
      > > microbrial biosphere. A thousand years of cold conditions
      followed!
      > > Doing a similar thing to the Gulf of California is making for dry
      > > conditions in Los Angeles, as much of the rain is either
      monsoonal
      > or
      > > from winter snow fall to the mountains that would be impacted by
      > the
      > > monsoonal flow.
      > >
      > > It is true LA does not rely on local runoff for their water. It
      > > relies on aqueducts from the Colorado, the Owens Valley and
      > Northern
      > > California. Low local rainfall does not really affect the human
      > > population there. A huge proportion of the water, well over 90%
      > goes
      > > to agriculture. Residential water was a very small, albeit media
      > > huge, amount. Also, the California coast from above San Francisco
      > > south, gets almost all of its rainfall in the winter months. But
      a
      > > regional drought will impact local hydrates directly and
      > indirectly.
      > >
      > > Indeed, the history of water diversions from just north of L.A.
      > make
      > > some interesting history. Mountains with snow caps run water to
      the
      > > cities, and from where I am near Lake Shasta in N. California, we
      > are
      > > sending water all the way to San Diego this year.
      > >
      > > Yet, indeed it was dry in N. California last year and in
      particular
      > > on the Oregon-California border with the Klamath River. These dry
      > > conditions are related to the conditions of the N. Pacific in
      > > general, IMHO. That said, the dry conditions here in the last few
      > > years take second place to when regional rivers went through a
      time
      > > of heavy dams construction and reconstruction. This time with a
      > > little Keeling Whorf cycling and Shasta Lake, for instance, which
      > is
      > > about 5 miles from me, was like half empty. And the Shasta dam
      > > itself, when constructed, caused a relatively drier climate in
      the
      > > region, IMHO. Why? Because the deforestation combined with the
      > river
      > > delays of flow, sedimentation and detritus into the summer months
      > > reduced the intensity of the winter spring precipitation. If the
      > > sedimentation, detritus and flow occur when the earth is angled
      > away
      > > from the sun in the winter and spring, the electrical interaction
      > > with the atmosphere from the sun doesn't upset the electrical
      > > enhancement created by biologically created electrical insolation
      > in
      > > the context of ocean current derived electrical fields that
      enhance
      > > cirrus.
      > >
      > > Interestingly, just after the Bay Series quake, there was a law
      > > passed called CALFED to balance the competing use interests on
      the
      > > Sacramento. One of those interests were waterfowl in the Bay
      > Estuary.
      > > So there always was a managed flow, from then, to the Bay.
      Perhaps
      > > low but always steady, always enough. Since then there has not
      been
      > > significant siesmic activity or drought!
      > >
      > > What I am saying about the Colorado and Lake Mead is that in the
      > past
      > > they always let something go over in the spring but they stopped
      it
      > > last year and the Mexicans haven't exactly been great about
      letting
      > > some water flow to the ocean--and now they are paying for this
      > policy
      > > with drought. It is incredibly stupid.
    • fredwx
      Regarding Hoover: A diversion around the dam construction site was done in 1932. This allowed the water to flow around the site but did not restrict the total
      Message 2 of 7 , May 6, 2002
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        Regarding Hoover:
        A diversion around the dam construction site was done in 1932. This
        allowed the water to flow around the site but did not restrict the
        total flow. Water was not restricted prior to 1935.

        RE The Mississippi:
        There were a long series of dams along the Mississippi for many years
        prior to as well as during the 1930's so you can not fix any of these
        as the cause of the dust bowl.

        1884 -- First major reservior system - Leech, Winnibigoshish,
        Pokegama, Minnesota
        1910 -- First dam with a hydroelectric plant - Lock & Dam 1,
        Minneapolis, Minnesota
        1907 Congress authorized a six-foot channel.
        1914 Dam built at Keokuk, Iowa to produce hydroelectric power.
        1924 Congress established the Upper Mississippi Wild Life and Fish
        Refuge.
        1930's Dams built to deepen the main channel to nine feet, over
        objection of Izaak Walton League.

        Fred



        --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
        > Fred,
        >
        > Let me respond to both of your posts.
        >
        > This link:
        >
        > http://crwua.mwd.dst.ca.us/lor/crwua_lor.htm
        >
        > gives some history of water use before the 1930s and it is clear
        that
        > there was diversions, including in 1932 for the Hoover dam. Then
        > there is the Imperial Valley Salt Lake deal and the water use
        issues
        > of the 7 states and Mexico. Don't forget that there are two other
        > main rivers--the Rio and the Mississippi. This history shows the
        tie
        > in between the Rio and the Colorado and the water use fight. But
        the
        > Mississippi is key, too. Understand at this point over the past 10
        > years or so the Mississippi is going the other way--with too much
        sed
        > and flow comparted to the Colorado and Rio.
        >
        > The Mississippi has changed its course numerous times by human
        > activity in the past (there are, of course, natural changes). Many
        of
        > the man made changes occurred upstream before 1924, to prevent
        local
        > flooding and erosion. But on the delta itself a major change
        occurred
        > in 1924, when the Inner Harbor Navigation Canal, or the Industrial
        > Canal was opened, linking the Mississippi River with a "lake." The
        > Army Corps of Engineers built spillways, that prevent breaks, that
        > can be opened if New Orleans is threatened by a flood crest. Much
        of
        > the water that flows into Lake Pontchartrain comes as a result of
        man-
        > made operations. Then in 1931 the Corps of Engineers built the
        Bonnet
        > Carre Spillway.
        >
        > The timing of these major changes to the rivers matches perfectly
        > with the Dust Bowl, only altered in minor ways by ENSO.
        >
        > As far as there being other factors, I again would point to the
        > Keeling Whorf and Fu papers in terms of the inverse relationship
        > between cloud wieghted SSTs and cirrus and say that the forcing
        from
        > clouds is extremely significant and controlling--otherwise no Gaia
        > and we wouldn't be here. The forcing from cirrus also should be
        > thought of as modulating. Therefore, the cold oceans and
        > thermohaline is a product of modulation, not that STTs are a normal
        > state where chaotic events alter them. So what we have here is a
        > changing modulation based on a key forcing changing, not some
        chaotic
        > event in the context of chaotic behavior. The problem is much
        > different than that.
        >
        > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
        > > You said "First, warmer oceans mean that they are more
        specifically
        > > conductive--less resistive to electrical currents. This is
        related
        > to
        > > the cold SSTs to the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence,
        > > provides less rain to S. Cal."
        > >
        > > SST's are below normal over the eastern North Pacific and I agree
        > > that the dry weather is a likely result.
        > >
        > >
        >
        http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.30.20
        > > 02.gif
        > >
        > > ....but there could be other reasons for this besides electrical
        > > currents.
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > >
        > > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
        > > > L.A. is having the driest year since records were recorded--
        four
        > > > inches of rain so far.
        > > >
        > > > Last year it was decided to take run off from excess spring
        rains
        > > > that over flow from Lake Mead and run them to California. This
        > was
        > > > despite the damage already caused by CAP--see
        > > > http://www.geocities.com/NapaValley/8339/CAP.html That decision
        > > looks
        > > > pretty dumb from where I sit.
        > > >
        > > > But there is also an issue of warmer oceans. Warmer, again,
        means
        > > > more conductive, and for west to east moving currents, it means
        > > less
        > > > cirrus.
        > > >
        > > > No El Nino is also hard on S. Cal rain conditions.
        > > >
        > > > So is 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past 30 years,
        > culminated
        > > > with the Three Gorge diversion and relocation to the delta, and
        > > delta
        > > > sedimentation retention projects for land for these people to
        > live.
        > > >
        > > >
        > > >
        > > > Here are some thoughts back, first in cryptic form and then
        > perhaps
        > > > some code breaking background--I hope it communicates. First,
        > > warmer
        > > > oceans mean that they are more specifically conductive--less
        > > > resistive to electrical currents. This is related to the cold
        > SSTs
        > > to
        > > > the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence, provides less
        > rain
        > > > to S. Cal. That is because a more conductive ocean cuts both
        > ways,
        > > > including an idea that currents moving from west to east will
        > > induct
        > > > against cirrus enhancement per the IR measures discussed in
        > Lindzen
        > > > and Fu's papers (yes, they ignore direction of current in their
        > > > papers but their data is solid if not their mechanism
        > conclusions).
        > > > Second, 30,000 dams have been built in Asia over the past 30
        > years,
        > > > culminated by Three Gorge. That means more electrical leakage
        or
        > > less
        > > > Gaia insulation. Third, recent changes in output from Lake
        Mead,
        > > > although not the same as building Hoover and creating a Dust
        > Bowl,
        > > > have had significant impact on SW climate. Specifically,
        recently
        > a
        > > > controversy arose relative to the American Mexican treaty over
        > > water
        > > > to the Gulf of California and the health of the estuary as it
        > > > pertained to these dolphins there, and the Mexicans asked that
        > > > spring "overspill" from Lake Mead continue, and the Americans
        > > elected
        > > > to send this water to California via ducts. Not wise--as it has
        > > > caused record dry conditions in the region--to include
        mountains
        > in
        > > > S. Cal that eventually run off S. Cal rivers to methane hydrate
        > > > fields along the S. Cal coast. From a biological standpoint,
        > > > conditions are very electrically poor for S. Cal and it is
        > starting
        > > > to show in poor rainfall amounts
        > > >
        > > > .....
        > > >
        > > > The microbiology and chemistry of hydrate formation throws in
        > great
        > > > complexity in the methanogens role in climate. In my view, as
        > most
        > > of
        > > > you know, the oceans and climate is much more of a living,
        > > biological
        > > > process than many consider it to be. The complexity confuses
        many
        > > > against seeing the biological aspect. One reason is that
        methane
        > > > hydrate only forms provided extreme conditions AND
        CONCENTRATIONS
        > > of
        > > > methane are satisfied. This means there must be lots of methane
        > > > concentrated in one place or the methane just dissolves in the
        > > water
        > > > without forming the ice crystal. There is a good example to see
        > how
        > > > this is true by experiment. CO2 also forms an additional gas
        > > hydrate
        > > > similar to methane hydrates, and researchers have designed, for
        > > > instance, a torpedo shaped block of frozen CO2, which turns out
        > to
        > > be
        > > > denser than ocean water, that when released from a ship, will
        > fall
        > > to
        > > > the sand at the depths of the ocean and get wedged into it--
        then
        > > form
        > > > CO2 hydrate, that although as a hydrate is less dense than the
        > > water,
        > > > as buried in sand will be 'heavy' enough to stay there. This is
        > > > actually a patented idea as a way of carbon sequestration.
        > Anyway,
        > > > methane hydrate researchers looking into this type of thing
        have
        > > > taken CO2 down to the depths, under 1,280 feet, in robots and
        > > > released it in concentrated form. The CO2 spills out and forms
        a
        > > gas
        > > > hydrate. But right next to the hydrate is are fish swimming
        > about--
        > > in
        > > > a picture taken of this process! So, the CO2 coming out of
        their
        > > > gills doesn't turn to hydrate, and the O2 they must breath into
        > > their
        > > > gills isn't ice! A type of protein has evolved in fish that
        > > prevents
        > > > hydrates from forming! Hence, the archaebacteria, in the
        > symbiotic
        > > > process to make methane for hydrates in the intermediate depths
        > of
        > > > the oceans, must make it in sufficient concentrations for it to
        > > form.
        > > > This sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
        > > > biological conditions must first exist for the microbrial
        > activity
        > > to
        > > > be sufficient to form sufficient concentrations for it to form.
        > > This
        > > > sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
        > biological
        > > > conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity to be
        > > > sufficient to form significant hydrate activity.
        > > >
        > > > For instance, look at the history of the Younger Dryas and
        > current
        > > > dogma about its cause fresh water capping from the diversion of
        > the
        > > > Mississippi headwaters to the east to the N. Atlantic. A river
        > > fresh
        > > > off a glacier, I suspect, doesn't biologically cut it. And if a
        > > river
        > > > that once flowed out of huge glacial lakes then becomes
        > > substantially
        > > > less flowing, with less sedimentation and detritus, then the
        > > hydrate
        > > > activity will substantially decrease.
        > > >
        > > >
        > > > In this case, the significant change is relative to the Gulf of
        > > > California. Hydrates are located there:
        > > >
        > > > http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-pages/hydrates/where.html
        > > >
        > > > They don't form in shallows--they require 1,275 feet of water
        or
        > > > more.
        > > >
        > > > They are found on the US west coast as far south as off the
        coast
        > > of
        > > > Santa Barbara. Understand the counter current would move
        > NORTHWEST.
        > > > So, applicable to what I am talking about, they are found IN
        THE
        > > GULF
        > > > OF CALIFORNIA.
        > > >
        > > >
        > > > http://www.dri.edu/Projects/Monsoon/3empirical.html
        > > >
        > > > The monsoon in the SW depends on the surface temperatures of
        the
        > > > waters in the Gulf of California.
        > > >
        > > > Waters from the tropics in that region tend to move along the
        > coast
        > > > in a NW manner and peel off west with the N. Pacific gyre.
        > > >
        > > > The study involved non-El Nino period so that wind direction of
        > > > consequence is generally constant for the study. This leave a
        > > > question what varied the SSTs. As I have tried to explain, SSTs
        > are
        > > > MODULATED by the biosphere with energies from IR movements by
        > > cirrus
        > > > cloud behavior that can change energies absorbed in the range
        of
        > > > between 50 and 200 watts per meter squared per Lindzen and Fu's
        > > > papers. Over time scales of a few weeks, this kind of energy is
        > > > sufficient to move SSTs!
        > > >
        > > > What I would like to do is talk for a moment about Keeling
        Whorf
        > > > (K/W) and tidal changes. IMHO, tides not only alter how the
        > oceans
        > > > move against the beaches, but also how currents move in the
        > > > intermediate oceans. While K/W is not much of a factor right
        now
        > on
        > > > these kind of timescales it is illistrative of the feedback
        > > involved
        > > > on shorter periods by way of example.
        > > >
        > > > I have talked about depressurization of hydrates from K/W
        before,
        > > but
        > > > there is also an idea of simple melting from changes in ocean
        > > > currents. If there is a lot of sloshing around, to put it
        > crudely,
        > > > than underneath the gyres, which are the warmest and hence most
        > > > electrically significant aspect of climate, than the swath of
        > > hydrate
        > > > activity underneath the gyres is going to be melted to a larger
        > > > extent. That means more electrical leakage. It would be like
        > having
        > > > MS--the myolin sheaths of nerve tissues becoming defective--the
        > > > biological signal to climate is short circuited. Here is a
        blurb
        > > from
        > > > K/Ws paper:
        > > >
        > > >
        > > >
        > > > "The IRD event (number 5) near 8,100 yr BP is particularly
        > > noteworthy
        > > > because it appears to be associated with the most abrupt and
        > > > widespread climate shift known from the past 10 kyr (10); it is
        > > > believed to have been initiated by a large freshwater pulse
        from
        > > > Laurentide lakes, dated at 8,470 yr BP, that reduced surface
        > ocean
        > > > salinity in the North Atlantic Ocean, thereby causing
        widespread
        > > > cooling near 8,200 yr BP (11). Two recently drilled sedimentary
        > > cores
        > > > show multiple IRD events between 8,300 and 7,400 yr BP (ref. 1,
        > > Fig.
        > > > 14). Together with the Elk Lake dust layer of 7,800 yr BP,
        these
        > > data
        > > > suggest prolonged or repeated cooling well beyond the time
        > expected
        > > > for a freshwater discharge to directly affect climate. The
        > maximum
        > > > tidal forcing near these events at 7,744 yr BP was the greatest
        > in
        > > > 20,000 years, preceded and succeeded by strong forcing at 8,089
        > and
        > > > 7,381 yr BP of the 360-yr tidal cycle. Thus the tidal
        hypothesis
        > > > suggests that cooling initiated by a freshwater pulse may have
        > been
        > > > prolonged by tidal forcing. Also consistent with tidal forcing
        is
        > > the
        > > > possibility that the timing of the freshwater pulse occurred
        > during
        > > a
        > > > warm phase of the 1,800-year tidal cycle, about 700 years
        before
        > > > maximum forcing at 7,744 yr BP. "
        > > >
        > > > See figure
        > > >
        > > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/8/3814/F7
        > > >
        > > > Both quote and figure from:
        > > >
        > > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197
        > > >
        > > > A mudslide of 8,000 years ago must be put into perspective of
        the
        > > > Keeling Whorf research--and I think is somewhat related to the
        > > > Younger Dryas in that the feedbacks out of the glacial hadn't
        > > reached
        > > > the biological stability we have today after the interglacial
        has
        > > > persisted as long as it has:
        > > >
        > > > October 5 2000 12:12 PM ET Seabed Gas Crystal Formations Linked
        > to
        > > > Tsunami
        > > >
        > > > By Todd Eastham
        > > >
        > > >
        > > > WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About 8,000 years ago, a massive
        undersea
        > > > landslide off the coast of Norway sent a 30-foot wall of water -
        -
        > a
        > > > tsunami wave -- barreling into the northern coast of Europe.
        > > >
        > > > If this were to recur today, as scientists say it could, almost
        > > > anywhere in the world, it would cost billions if not tens of
        > > billions
        > > > of dollars to repair the damage to coastal cities. And the cost
        > in
        > > > lives could be far higher.
        > > >
        > > > ``A tsunami like that would wash into the Baltic with some
        > > > devastation,'' said scientist Charles Paull at the Monterey Bay
        > > > Aquarium Research Institute in Moss Landing, California.
        > > >
        > > > While scientists who study the so-called Storegga Slide with
        the
        > > > tools of geology, biology and seismography are not sure what
        > > > triggered it, they are fairly certain a mysterious crystalline
        > > solid
        > > > composed of water molecules intertwined with methane gas, known
        > as
        > > > methane or gas hydrates, played a role.
        > > >
        > > > Paull says an earthquake might have triggered the slide, which
        > > > occurred in stages over hundreds of years, removing an enormous
        > > chunk
        > > > from Norway's continental margin. But its magnitude suggests
        > > methane
        > > > hydrates played a role.
        > > >
        > > > ``Whatever the trigger,'' he said in a phone interview, ``this
        is
        > a
        > > > natural disaster related to gas hydrates.''
        > > >
        > > > Methane hydrates, which scientists are studying as a possible
        > vast
        > > > global energy resource, are among the weirdest natural
        phenomena.
        > > > Sometimes called ``flammable ice,'' they are just that: highly
        > > > unstable and combustible crystallized solids existing only in a
        > > high
        > > > pressure/low temperature environment.
        > > >
        > > > Discovered by accident late in the 19th century by oil and gas
        > > > exploration teams just below the Arctic permafrost, the odd
        > > crystals
        > > > are thought to contain more clean-burning fossil fuels than
        > Earth's
        > > > reserves of oil, natural gas and coal combined.
        > > >
        > > > Equally important is the key role they appear to play in the
        > global
        > > > climate and marine environment, as well as the occasional
        > > cataclysmic
        > > > undersea event.
        > > >
        > > > Acting director John Farrell said the Ocean Drilling Program's
        15-
        > > > year series of expeditions to explore the ocean floor had
        > uncovered
        > > > evidence that gas hydrates have spilled into the ocean in
        massive
        > > > bursts repeatedly over the last 50,000 years. Evidence in tiny
        > > > plankton shells called ``forams'' show ``a chemical change in
        the
        > > > world's oceans that can only be explained by a lot of methane
        > being
        > > > injected into the water.''
        > > >
        > > > Enormous Implications For World Climate
        > > >
        > > > Events of that kind have enormous implications for global
        climate
        > > > change because methane is a potent greenhouse gas. A large
        enough
        > > > release of methane, as in the Storegga Slide, could bring on or
        > > > accelerate a cycle of global warming.
        > > >
        > > > Warming cycles might already have been underway when such
        slides
        > > > occurred, triggered by some as-yet-unknown mechanism that
        warmed
        > > the
        > > > oceans enough to destabilize gas hydrates, which dissolve when
        > > > temperatures rise or pressures decrease.
        > > >
        > > > While release of methane from beneath the ocean floor could
        lead
        > to
        > > a
        > > > vicious cycle of warming, Paull and other scientists caution
        > there
        > > is
        > > > more at play. Rising sea levels would actually increase
        pressures
        > > on
        > > > those hydrate deposits, locking them in and perhaps leading to
        a
        > > > reverse cooling cycle.
        > > >
        > > > Whatever role they have played in the cycles of global climate
        > > > change -- as well as chemical changes in the oceans -- it is
        > clear
        > > > that research into these odd combustible undersea ice
        formations
        > is
        > > > essential to understanding planet Earth.
        > > >
        > > > In time, such research could lead to a way to predict or at
        least
        > > > calculate the risk of events like the Storegga Slide.
        > > >
        > > > ``If we understand what happened in the past, then we're in a
        > > better
        > > > position to anticipate the future,'' said Farrell.
        > > >
        > > > ``What we first have to do is make sure we know where these gas
        > > > hydrate layers are,'' through research like that being done by
        > the
        > > > ODP, a partnership with seven international consortia
        > representing
        > > > more than 20 countries. ``Then if we know about any factors
        that
        > > > affect the temperature and pressure .... we might ultimately
        > reduce
        > > > the uncertainty'' about where and when the continental margins
        > > might
        > > > collapse and trigger tsunami.
        > > >
        > > > The world's largest Earth science research project, the ODP is
        > > > administered by the Joint Oceanographic Institutions funded in
        > part
        > > > by the National Science Foundation. It will target an area off
        > > Oregon
        > > > in its next gas hydrate expedition, in 2002. "
        > > > .....
        > > >
        > > > What I think should be appreciated about Keeling Whorf and the
        > > > Younger Dryas is that the Mississippi lost its glacial lake
        > > sourcing,
        > > > so the microbrial biosphere lost its source of "food" in the
        GOM.
        > > The
        > > > water then flowed to the N. Pacific in a fairly inactive way,
        > > > biologically speaking, to a part of the ocean with little
        > > biological
        > > > activity. Hence, the change that occurred initially to mark the
        > > cold
        > > > snap of the Younger Dryas wasn't so much about fresh water
        > capping
        > > as
        > > > it was about a significant change to the intermediate ocean
        > > > microbrial biosphere. A thousand years of cold conditions
        > followed!
        > > > Doing a similar thing to the Gulf of California is making for
        dry
        > > > conditions in Los Angeles, as much of the rain is either
        > monsoonal
        > > or
        > > > from winter snow fall to the mountains that would be impacted
        by
        > > the
        > > > monsoonal flow.
        > > >
        > > > It is true LA does not rely on local runoff for their water. It
        > > > relies on aqueducts from the Colorado, the Owens Valley and
        > > Northern
        > > > California. Low local rainfall does not really affect the human
        > > > population there. A huge proportion of the water, well over
        90%
        > > goes
        > > > to agriculture. Residential water was a very small, albeit
        media
        > > > huge, amount. Also, the California coast from above San
        Francisco
        > > > south, gets almost all of its rainfall in the winter months.
        But
        > a
        > > > regional drought will impact local hydrates directly and
        > > indirectly.
        > > >
        > > > Indeed, the history of water diversions from just north of L.A.
        > > make
        > > > some interesting history. Mountains with snow caps run water to
        > the
        > > > cities, and from where I am near Lake Shasta in N. California,
        we
        > > are
        > > > sending water all the way to San Diego this year.
        > > >
        > > > Yet, indeed it was dry in N. California last year and in
        > particular
        > > > on the Oregon-California border with the Klamath River. These
        dry
        > > > conditions are related to the conditions of the N. Pacific in
        > > > general, IMHO. That said, the dry conditions here in the last
        few
        > > > years take second place to when regional rivers went through a
        > time
        > > > of heavy dams construction and reconstruction. This time with a
        > > > little Keeling Whorf cycling and Shasta Lake, for instance,
        which
        > > is
        > > > about 5 miles from me, was like half empty. And the Shasta dam
        > > > itself, when constructed, caused a relatively drier climate in
        > the
        > > > region, IMHO. Why? Because the deforestation combined with the
        > > river
        > > > delays of flow, sedimentation and detritus into the summer
        months
        > > > reduced the intensity of the winter spring precipitation. If
        the
        > > > sedimentation, detritus and flow occur when the earth is angled
        > > away
        > > > from the sun in the winter and spring, the electrical
        interaction
        > > > with the atmosphere from the sun doesn't upset the electrical
        > > > enhancement created by biologically created electrical
        insolation
        > > in
        > > > the context of ocean current derived electrical fields that
        > enhance
        > > > cirrus.
        > > >
        > > > Interestingly, just after the Bay Series quake, there was a law
        > > > passed called CALFED to balance the competing use interests on
        > the
        > > > Sacramento. One of those interests were waterfowl in the Bay
        > > Estuary.
        > > > So there always was a managed flow, from then, to the Bay.
        > Perhaps
        > > > low but always steady, always enough. Since then there has not
        > been
        > > > significant siesmic activity or drought!
        > > >
        > > > What I am saying about the Colorado and Lake Mead is that in
        the
        > > past
        > > > they always let something go over in the spring but they
        stopped
        > it
        > > > last year and the Mexicans haven't exactly been great about
        > letting
        > > > some water flow to the ocean--and now they are paying for this
        > > policy
        > > > with drought. It is incredibly stupid.
      • pawnfart
        Fred, I think you have to be careful with your analysis. I agree with the facts you state but not what it means to the feedbacks I am describing, and I think
        Message 3 of 7 , May 6, 2002
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          Fred,

          I think you have to be careful with your analysis. I agree with the
          facts you state but not what it means to the feedbacks I am
          describing, and I think you are leaving out some key facts.

          Leading up to the Black Sunday, Easter, 1935, there was a prolonged
          and sustained drought in the heartland, that dated back to the mid-
          1920s. The human activity on those rivers occurred in the 1920s and
          1930s and culminated with things like the Inner Harbor Navigation
          Canal in 1924 or the Lake Pontchartrain projects in 1931 and the
          Hoover in 1931. Also understand that if the Colorado causes low
          monsoonal air flow or a lowered sub tropical jet, the rain that would
          land in the heartland won't flow out the Mississippi and Rio
          floodplains--so that there is a sort of compounding impact from west
          to east with these rivers.

          But what I wanted you to notice from the link I provided was that
          there was a great struggle to settle riperian rights that ended in
          early 1920s. That means that the 7 states were then free to start
          piping off water BEFORE the 1930s, AND THEY DID!!!!

          This is key. It isn't what happened in Minnesota up river 1,500
          miles that matters to the microbrial biosphere in the GOM--but this
          biosphere IS impact with large man made delta lakes or massive
          concrete dams and million of acre feet siphoned off by 7 states.
          Don't you see?

          To show how this has happened before in history w/ the Colorado--
          check this out. In 1903 the Mexicans messed up w/ a diversion
          channel and the Imperial valley in Southern California was turned
          into a large salt lake! This occurred during an El Nino when
          rainfall is historically high in the SW AND HURRICANCE ACTIVITY IS
          REDUCED. Now, check out the ENSO PATTERN:

          ++++++++++++++++++++

          El Niño Years La Niña Years

          1900-1901 1903-1904

          1902-1903 1906-1907

          1905-1906 1908-1909


          And then look at the hurricane seasons:


          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1901/

          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1902/

          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1903/

          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1904/

          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1905/

          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1906/

          http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1907/

          I think what you should notice is there is a decided drop off of near
          Texas TS after the Sultan Sea creation during La Nina years when
          historically TS activity in general increases! Likewise, this year,
          we seeing very dry conditions in much of western Texas--which feeds
          the Rio and gives us biological conditions in the GOM for tropical
          activity!

          --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
          > Regarding Hoover:
          > A diversion around the dam construction site was done in 1932. This
          > allowed the water to flow around the site but did not restrict the
          > total flow. Water was not restricted prior to 1935.
          >
          > RE The Mississippi:
          > There were a long series of dams along the Mississippi for many
          years
          > prior to as well as during the 1930's so you can not fix any of
          these
          > as the cause of the dust bowl.
          >
          > 1884 -- First major reservior system - Leech, Winnibigoshish,
          > Pokegama, Minnesota
          > 1910 -- First dam with a hydroelectric plant - Lock & Dam 1,
          > Minneapolis, Minnesota
          > 1907 Congress authorized a six-foot channel.
          > 1914 Dam built at Keokuk, Iowa to produce hydroelectric power.
          > 1924 Congress established the Upper Mississippi Wild Life and Fish
          > Refuge.
          > 1930's Dams built to deepen the main channel to nine feet, over
          > objection of Izaak Walton League.
          >
          > Fred
          >
          >
          >
          > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
          > > Fred,
          > >
          > > Let me respond to both of your posts.
          > >
          > > This link:
          > >
          > > http://crwua.mwd.dst.ca.us/lor/crwua_lor.htm
          > >
          > > gives some history of water use before the 1930s and it is clear
          > that
          > > there was diversions, including in 1932 for the Hoover dam. Then
          > > there is the Imperial Valley Salt Lake deal and the water use
          > issues
          > > of the 7 states and Mexico. Don't forget that there are two
          other
          > > main rivers--the Rio and the Mississippi. This history shows the
          > tie
          > > in between the Rio and the Colorado and the water use fight. But
          > the
          > > Mississippi is key, too. Understand at this point over the past
          10
          > > years or so the Mississippi is going the other way--with too much
          > sed
          > > and flow comparted to the Colorado and Rio.
          > >
          > > The Mississippi has changed its course numerous times by human
          > > activity in the past (there are, of course, natural changes).
          Many
          > of
          > > the man made changes occurred upstream before 1924, to prevent
          > local
          > > flooding and erosion. But on the delta itself a major change
          > occurred
          > > in 1924, when the comes as a result of
          > man-
          > > made operations. Then in 1931 the Corps of Engineers built the
          > Bonnet
          > > Carre Spillway.
          > >
          > > The timing of these major changes to the rivers matches perfectly
          > > with the Dust Bowl, only altered in minor ways by ENSO.
          > >
          > > As far as there being other factors, I again would point to the
          > > Keeling Whorf and Fu papers in terms of the inverse relationship
          > > between cloud wieghted SSTs and cirrus and say that the forcing
          > from
          > > clouds is extremely significant and controlling--otherwise no
          Gaia
          > > and we wouldn't be here. The forcing from cirrus also should be
          > > thought of as modulating. Therefore, the cold oceans and
          > > thermohaline is a product of modulation, not that STTs are a
          normal
          > > state where chaotic events alter them. So what we have here is a
          > > changing modulation based on a key forcing changing, not some
          > chaotic
          > > event in the context of chaotic behavior. The problem is much
          > > different than that.
          > >
          > > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., fredwx <no_reply@y...> wrote:
          > > > You said "First, warmer oceans mean that they are more
          > specifically
          > > > conductive--less resistive to electrical currents. This is
          > related
          > > to
          > > > the cold SSTs to the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and
          hence,
          > > > provides less rain to S. Cal."
          > > >
          > > > SST's are below normal over the eastern North Pacific and I
          agree
          > > > that the dry weather is a likely result.
          > > >
          > > >
          > >
          >
          http://psbsgi1.nesdis.noaa.gov:8080/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.30.20
          > > > 02.gif
          > > >
          > > > ....but there could be other reasons for this besides
          electrical
          > > > currents.
          > > >
          > > >
          > > >
          > > >
          > > >
          > > > --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., "pawnfart" <mike@u...> wrote:
          > > > > L.A. is having the driest year since records were recorded--
          > four
          > > > > inches of rain so far.
          > > > >
          > > > > Last year it was decided to take run off from excess spring
          > rains
          > > > > that over flow from Lake Mead and run them to California.
          This
          > > was
          > > > > despite the damage already caused by CAP--see
          > > > > http://www.geocities.com/NapaValley/8339/CAP.html That
          decision
          > > > looks
          > > > > pretty dumb from where I sit.
          > > > >
          > > > > But there is also an issue of warmer oceans. Warmer, again,
          > means
          > > > > more conductive, and for west to east moving currents, it
          means
          > > > less
          > > > > cirrus.
          > > > >
          > > > > No El Nino is also hard on S. Cal rain conditions.
          > > > >
          > > > > So is 30,000 dams built in Asia over the past 30 years,
          > > culminated
          > > > > with the Three Gorge diversion and relocation to the delta,
          and
          > > > delta
          > > > > sedimentation retention projects for land for these people to
          > > live.
          > > > >
          > > > >
          > > > >
          > > > > Here are some thoughts back, first in cryptic form and then
          > > perhaps
          > > > > some code breaking background--I hope it communicates. First,
          > > > warmer
          > > > > oceans mean that they are more specifically conductive--less
          > > > > resistive to electrical currents. This is related to the cold
          > > SSTs
          > > > to
          > > > > the top of the N. Pacific gyre, IMHO, and hence, provides
          less
          > > rain
          > > > > to S. Cal. That is because a more conductive ocean cuts both
          > > ways,
          > > > > including an idea that currents moving from west to east will
          > > > induct
          > > > > against cirrus enhancement per the IR measures discussed in
          > > Lindzen
          > > > > and Fu's papers (yes, they ignore direction of current in
          their
          > > > > papers but their data is solid if not their mechanism
          > > conclusions).
          > > > > Second, 30,000 dams have been built in Asia over the past 30
          > > years,
          > > > > culminated by Three Gorge. That means more electrical leakage
          > or
          > > > less
          > > > > Gaia insulation. Third, recent changes in output from Lake
          > Mead,
          > > > > although not the same as building Hoover and creating a Dust
          > > Bowl,
          > > > > have had significant impact on SW climate. Specifically,
          > recently
          > > a
          > > > > controversy arose relative to the American Mexican treaty
          over
          > > > water
          > > > > to the Gulf of California and the health of the estuary as it
          > > > > pertained to these dolphins there, and the Mexicans asked
          that
          > > > > spring "overspill" from Lake Mead continue, and the Americans
          > > > elected
          > > > > to send this water to California via ducts. Not wise--as it
          has
          > > > > caused record dry conditions in the region--to include
          > mountains
          > > in
          > > > > S. Cal that eventually run off S. Cal rivers to methane
          hydrate
          > > > > fields along the S. Cal coast. From a biological standpoint,
          > > > > conditions are very electrically poor for S. Cal and it is
          > > starting
          > > > > to show in poor rainfall amounts
          > > > >
          > > > > .....
          > > > >
          > > > > The microbiology and chemistry of hydrate formation throws in
          > > great
          > > > > complexity in the methanogens role in climate. In my view, as
          > > most
          > > > of
          > > > > you know, the oceans and climate is much more of a living,
          > > > biological
          > > > > process than many consider it to be. The complexity confuses
          > many
          > > > > against seeing the biological aspect. One reason is that
          > methane
          > > > > hydrate only forms provided extreme conditions AND
          > CONCENTRATIONS
          > > > of
          > > > > methane are satisfied. This means there must be lots of
          methane
          > > > > concentrated in one place or the methane just dissolves in
          the
          > > > water
          > > > > without forming the ice crystal. There is a good example to
          see
          > > how
          > > > > this is true by experiment. CO2 also forms an additional gas
          > > > hydrate
          > > > > similar to methane hydrates, and researchers have designed,
          for
          > > > > instance, a torpedo shaped block of frozen CO2, which turns
          out
          > > to
          > > > be
          > > > > denser than ocean water, that when released from a ship, will
          > > fall
          > > > to
          > > > > the sand at the depths of the ocean and get wedged into it--
          > then
          > > > form
          > > > > CO2 hydrate, that although as a hydrate is less dense than
          the
          > > > water,
          > > > > as buried in sand will be 'heavy' enough to stay there. This
          is
          > > > > actually a patented idea as a way of carbon sequestration.
          > > Anyway,
          > > > > methane hydrate researchers looking into this type of thing
          > have
          > > > > taken CO2 down to the depths, under 1,280 feet, in robots and
          > > > > released it in concentrated form. The CO2 spills out and
          forms
          > a
          > > > gas
          > > > > hydrate. But right next to the hydrate is are fish swimming
          > > about--
          > > > in
          > > > > a picture taken of this process! So, the CO2 coming out of
          > their
          > > > > gills doesn't turn to hydrate, and the O2 they must breath
          into
          > > > their
          > > > > gills isn't ice! A type of protein has evolved in fish that
          > > > prevents
          > > > > hydrates from forming! Hence, the archaebacteria, in the
          > > symbiotic
          > > > > process to make methane for hydrates in the intermediate
          depths
          > > of
          > > > > the oceans, must make it in sufficient concentrations for it
          to
          > > > form.
          > > > > This sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
          > > > > biological conditions must first exist for the microbrial
          > > activity
          > > > to
          > > > > be sufficient to form sufficient concentrations for it to
          form.
          > > > This
          > > > > sets up a more narrow set of parameters where sufficient
          > > biological
          > > > > conditions must first exist for the microbrial activity to be
          > > > > sufficient to form significant hydrate activity.
          > > > >
          > > > > For instance, look at the history of the Younger Dryas and
          > > current
          > > > > dogma about its cause fresh water capping from the diversion
          of
          > > the
          > > > > Mississippi headwaters to the east to the N. Atlantic. A
          river
          > > > fresh
          > > > > off a glacier, I suspect, doesn't biologically cut it. And if
          a
          > > > river
          > > > > that once flowed out of huge glacial lakes then becomes
          > > > substantially
          > > > > less flowing, with less sedimentation and detritus, then the
          > > > hydrate
          > > > > activity will substantially decrease.
          > > > >
          > > > >
          > > > > In this case, the significant change is relative to the Gulf
          of
          > > > > California. Hydrates are located there:
          > > > >
          > > > > http://woodshole.er.usgs.gov/project-
          pages/hydrates/where.html
          > > > >
          > > > > They don't form in shallows--they require 1,275 feet of water
          > or
          > > > > more.
          > > > >
          > > > > They are found on the US west coast as far south as off the
          > coast
          > > > of
          > > > > Santa Barbara. Understand the counter current would move
          > > NORTHWEST.
          > > > > So, applicable to what I am talking about, they are found IN
          > THE
          > > > GULF
          > > > > OF CALIFORNIA.
          > > > >
          > > > >
          > > > > http://www.dri.edu/Projects/Monsoon/3empirical.html
          > > > >
          > > > > The monsoon in the SW depends on the surface temperatures of
          > the
          > > > > waters in the Gulf of California.
          > > > >
          > > > > Waters from the tropics in that region tend to move along the
          > > coast
          > > > > in a NW manner and peel off west with the N. Pacific gyre.
          > > > >
          > > > > The study involved non-El Nino period so that wind direction
          of
          > > > > consequence is generally constant for the study. This leave a
          > > > > question what varied the SSTs. As I have tried to explain,
          SSTs
          > > are
          > > > > MODULATED by the biosphere with energies from IR movements by
          > > > cirrus
          > > > > cloud behavior that can change energies absorbed in the range
          > of
          > > > > between 50 and 200 watts per meter squared per Lindzen and
          Fu's
          > > > > papers. Over time scales of a few weeks, this kind of energy
          is
          > > > > sufficient to move SSTs!
          > > > >
          > > > > What I would like to do is talk for a moment about Keeling
          > Whorf
          > > > > (K/W) and tidal changes. IMHO, tides not only alter how the
          > > oceans
          > > > > move against the beaches, but also how currents move in the
          > > > > intermediate oceans. While K/W is not much of a factor right
          > now
          > > on
          > > > > these kind of timescales it is illistrative of the feedback
          > > > involved
          > > > > on shorter periods by way of example.
          > > > >
          > > > > I have talked about depressurization of hydrates from K/W
          > before,
          > > > but
          > > > > there is also an idea of simple melting from changes in ocean
          > > > > currents. If there is a lot of sloshing around, to put it
          > > crudely,
          > > > > than underneath the gyres, which are the warmest and hence
          most
          > > > > electrically significant aspect of climate, than the swath of
          > > > hydrate
          > > > > activity underneath the gyres is going to be melted to a
          larger
          > > > > extent. That means more electrical leakage. It would be like
          > > having
          > > > > MS--the myolin sheaths of nerve tissues becoming defective--
          the
          > > > > biological signal to climate is short circuited. Here is a
          > blurb
          > > > from
          > > > > K/Ws paper:
          > > > >
          > > > >
          > > > >
          > > > > "The IRD event (number 5) near 8,100 yr BP is particularly
          > > > noteworthy
          > > > > because it appears to be associated with the most abrupt and
          > > > > widespread climate shift known from the past 10 kyr (10); it
          is
          > > > > believed to have been initiated by a large freshwater pulse
          > from
          > > > > Laurentide lakes, dated at 8,470 yr BP, that reduced surface
          > > ocean
          > > > > salinity in the North Atlantic Ocean, thereby causing
          > widespread
          > > > > cooling near 8,200 yr BP (11). Two recently drilled
          sedimentary
          > > > cores
          > > > > show multiple IRD events between 8,300 and 7,400 yr BP (ref.
          1,
          > > > Fig.
          > > > > 14). Together with the Elk Lake dust layer of 7,800 yr BP,
          > these
          > > > data
          > > > > suggest prolonged or repeated cooling well beyond the time
          > > expected
          > > > > for a freshwater discharge to directly affect climate. The
          > > maximum
          > > > > tidal forcing near these events at 7,744 yr BP was the
          greatest
          > > in
          > > > > 20,000 years, preceded and succeeded by strong forcing at
          8,089
          > > and
          > > > > 7,381 yr BP of the 360-yr tidal cycle. Thus the tidal
          > hypothesis
          > > > > suggests that cooling initiated by a freshwater pulse may
          have
          > > been
          > > > > prolonged by tidal forcing. Also consistent with tidal
          forcing
          > is
          > > > the
          > > > > possibility that the timing of the freshwater pulse occurred
          > > during
          > > > a
          > > > > warm phase of the 1,800-year tidal cycle, about 700 years
          > before
          > > > > maximum forcing at 7,744 yr BP. "
          > > > >
          > > > > See figure
          > > > >
          > > > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/97/8/3814/F7
          > > > >
          > > > > Both quote and figure from:
          > > > >
          > > > > http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/070047197
          > > > >
          > > > > A mudslide of 8,000 years ago must be put into perspective of
          > the
          > > > > Keeling Whorf research--and I think is somewhat related to
          the
          > > > > Younger Dryas in that the feedbacks out of the glacial hadn't
          > > > reached
          > > > > the biological stability we have today after the interglacial
          > has
          > > > > persisted as long as it has:
          > > > >
          > > > > October 5 2000 12:12 PM ET Seabed Gas Crystal Formations
          Linked
          > > to
          > > > > Tsunami
          > > > >
          > > > > By Todd Eastham
          > > > >
          > > > >
          > > > > WASHINGTON (Reuters) - About 8,000 years ago, a massive
          > undersea
          > > > > landslide off the coast of Norway sent a 30-foot wall of
          water -
          > -
          > > a
          > > > > tsunami wave -- barreling into the northern coast of Europe.
          > > > >
          > > > > If this were to recur today, as scientists say it could,
          almost
          > > > > anywhere in the world, it would cost billions if not tens of
          > > > billions
          > > > > of dollars to repair the damage to coastal cities. And the
          cost
          > > in
          > > > > lives could be far higher.
          > > > >
          > > > > ``A tsunami like that would wash into the Baltic with some
          > > > > devastation,'' said scientist Charles Paull at the Monterey
          Bay
          > > > > Aquarium Research Institute in Moss Landing, California.
          > > > >
          > > > > While scientists who study the so-called Storegga Slide with
          > the
          > > > > tools of geology, biology and seismography are not sure what
          > > > > triggered it, they are fairly certain a mysterious
          crystalline
          > > > solid
          > > > > composed of water molecules intertwined with methane gas,
          known
          > > as
          > > > > methane or gas hydrates, played a role.
          > > > >
          > > > > Paull says an earthquake might have triggered the slide,
          which
          > > > > occurred in stages over hundreds of years, removing an
          enormous
          > > > chunk
          > > > > from Norway's continental margin. But its magnitude suggests
          > > > methane
          > > > > hydrates played a role.
          > > > >
          > > > > ``Whatever the trigger,'' he said in a phone interview,
          ``this
          > is
          > > a
          > > > > natural disaster related to gas hydrates.''
          > > > >
          > > > > Methane hydrates, which scientists are studying as a possible
          > > vast
          > > > > global energy resource, are among the weirdest natural
          > phenomena.
          > > > > Sometimes called ``flammable ice,'' they are just that:
          highly
          > > > > unstable and combustible crystallized solids existing only in
          a
          > > > high
          > > > > pressure/low temperature environment.
          > > > >
          > > > > Discovered by accident late in the 19th century by oil and
          gas
          > > > > exploration teams just below the Arctic permafrost, the odd
          > > > crystals
          > > > > are thought to contain more clean-burning fossil fuels than
          > > Earth's
          > > > > reserves of oil, natural gas and coal combined.
          > > > >
          > > > > Equally important is the key role they appear to play in the
          > > global
          > > > > climate and marine environment, as well as the occasional
          > > > cataclysmic
          > > > > undersea event.
          > > > >
          > > > > Acting director John Farrell said the Ocean Drilling
          Program's
          > 15-
          > > > > year series of expeditions to explore the ocean floor had
          > > uncovered
          > > > > evidence that gas hydrates have spilled into the ocean in
          > massive
          > > > > bursts repeatedly over the last 50,000 years. Evidence in
          tiny
          > > > > plankton shells called ``forams'' show ``a chemical change in
          > the
          > > > > world's oceans that can only be explained by a lot of methane
          > > being
          > > > > injected into the water.''
          > > > >
          > > > > Enormous Implications For World Climate
          > > > >
          > > > > Events of that kind have enormous implications for global
          > climate
          > > > > change because methane is a potent greenhouse gas. A large
          > enough
          > > > > release of methane, as in the Storegga Slide, could bring on
          or
          > > > > accelerate a cycle of global warming.
          > > > >
          > > > > Warming cycles might already have been underway when such
          > slides
          > > > > occurred, triggered by some as-yet-unknown mechanism that
          > warmed
          > > > the
          > > > > oceans enough to destabilize gas hydrates, which dissolve
          when
          > > > > temperatures rise or pressures decrease.
          > > > >
          > > > > While release of methane from beneath the ocean floor could
          > lead
          > > to
          > > > a
          > > > > vicious cycle of warming, Paull and other scientists caution
          > > there
          > > > is
          > > > > more at play. Rising sea levels would actually increase
          > pressures
          > > > on
          > > > > those hydrate deposits, locking them in and perhaps leading
          to
          > a
          > > > > reverse cooling cycle.
          > > > >
          > > > > Whatever role they have played in the cycles of global
          climate
          > > > > change -- as well as chemical changes in the oceans -- it is
          > > clear
          > > > > that research into these odd combustible undersea ice
          > formations
          > > is
          > > > > essential to understanding planet Earth.
          > > > >
          > > > > In time, such research could lead to a way to predict or at
          > least
          > > > > calculate the risk of events like the Storegga Slide.
          > > > >
          > > > > ``If we understand what happened in the past, then we're in a
          > > > better
          > > > > position to anticipate the future,'' said Farrell.
          > > > >
          > > > > ``What we first have to do is make sure we know where these
          gas
          > > > > hydrate layers are,'' through research like that being done
          by
          > > the
          > > > > ODP, a partnership with seven international consortia
          > > representing
          > > > > more than 20 countries. ``Then if we know about any factors
          > that
          > > > > affect the temperature and pressure .... we might ultimately
          > > reduce
          > > > > the uncertainty'' about where and when the continental
          margins
          > > > might
          > > > > collapse and trigger tsunami.
          > > > >
          > > > > The world's largest Earth science research project, the ODP
          is
          > > > > administered by the Joint Oceanographic Institutions funded
          in
          > > part
          > > > > by the National Science Foundation. It will target an area
          off
          > > > Oregon
          > > > > in its next gas hydrate expedition, in 2002. "
          > > > > .....
          > > > >
          > > > > What I think should be appreciated about Keeling Whorf and
          the
          > > > > Younger Dryas is that the Mississippi lost its glacial lake
          > > > sourcing,
          > > > > so the microbrial biosphere lost its source of "food" in the
          > GOM.
          > > > The
          > > > > water then flowed to the N. Pacific in a fairly inactive way,
          > > > > biologically speaking, to a part of the ocean with little
          > > > biological
          > > > > activity. Hence, the change that occurred initially to mark
          the
          > > > cold
          > > > > snap of the Younger Dryas wasn't so much about fresh water
          > > capping
          > > > as
          > > > > it was about a significant change to the intermediate ocean
          > > > > microbrial biosphere. A thousand years of cold conditions
          > > followed!
          > > > > Doing a similar thing to the Gulf of California is making for
          > dry
          > > > > conditions in Los Angeles, as much of the rain is either
          > > monsoonal
          > > > or
          > > > > from winter snow fall to the mountains that would be impacted
          > by
          > > > the
          > > > > monsoonal flow.
          > > > >
          > > > > It is true LA does not rely on local runoff for their water.
          It
          > > > > relies on aqueducts from the Colorado, the Owens Valley and
          > > > Northern
          > > > > California. Low local rainfall does not really affect the
          human
          > > > > population there. A huge proportion of the water, well over
          > 90%
          > > > goes
          > > > > to agriculture. Residential water was a very small, albeit
          > media
          > > > > huge, amount. Also, the California coast from above San
          > Francisco
          > > > > south, gets almost all of its rainfall in the winter months.
          > But
          > > a
          > > > > regional drought will impact local hydrates directly and
          > > > indirectly.
          > > > >
          > > > > Indeed, the history of water diversions from just north of
          L.A.
          > > > make
          > > > > some interesting history. Mountains with snow caps run water
          to
          > > the
          > > > > cities, and from where I am near Lake Shasta in N.
          California,
          > we
          > > > are
          > > > > sending water all the way to San Diego this year.
          > > > >
          > > > > Yet, indeed it was dry in N. California last year and in
          > > particular
          > > > > on the Oregon-California border with the Klamath River. These
          > dry
          > > > > conditions are related to the conditions of the N. Pacific in
          > > > > general, IMHO. That said, the dry conditions here in the last
          > few
          > > > > years take second place to when regional rivers went through
          a
          > > time
          > > > > of heavy dams construction and reconstruction. This time with
          a
          > > > > little Keeling Whorf cycling and Shasta Lake, for instance,
          > which
          > > > is
          > > > > about 5 miles from me, was like half empty. And the Shasta
          dam
          > > > > itself, when constructed, caused a relatively drier climate
          in
          > > the
          > > > > region, IMHO. Why? Because the deforestation combined with
          the
          > > > river
          > > > > delays of flow, sedimentation and detritus into the summer
          > months
          > > > > reduced the intensity of the winter spring precipitation. If
          > the
          > > > > sedimentation, detritus and flow occur when the earth is
          angled
          > > > away
          > > > > from the sun in the winter and spring, the electrical
          > interaction
          > > > > with the atmosphere from the sun doesn't upset the electrical
          > > > > enhancement created by biologically created electrical
          > insolation
          > > > in
          > > > > the context of ocean current derived electrical fields that
          > > enhance
          > > > > cirrus.
          > > > >
          > > > > Interestingly, just after the Bay Series quake, there was a
          law
          > > > > passed called CALFED to balance the competing use interests
          on
          > > the
          > > > > Sacramento. One of those interests were waterfowl in the Bay
          > > > Estuary.
          > > > > So there always was a managed flow, from then, to the Bay.
          > > Perhaps
          > > > > low but always steady, always enough. Since then there has
          not
          > > been
          > > > > significant siesmic activity or drought!
          > > > >
          > > > > What I am saying about the Colorado and Lake Mead is that in
          > the
          > > > past
          > > > > they always let something go over in the spring but they
          > stopped
          > > it
          > > > > last year and the Mexicans haven't exactly been great about
          > > letting
          > > > > some water flow to the ocean--and now they are paying for
          this
          > > > policy
          > > > > with drought. It is incredibly stupid.
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